Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Trey McBride ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
There remains no safer bet at the TE position than McBride. He’s posted the top utilization at the position all season, and that held true in Week 6 even without Kyler Murray. He totalled 11 targets vs. the Colts, which he turned into eight catches for 72 yards. He even managed to find the end zone, which is something he’s struggled to do for most of the past two seasons.
It’s unclear whether Murray or Jacoby Brissett will be under center in Week 7. Murray is officially listed as questionable, though it appears as though he’s tending towards sitting. Regardless, McBride should be a focal point for whoever is at QB. McBride had a 26% target share with Murray through the first five weeks, and he was at 31% with Brissett in Week 6.
Overall, McBride leads all TEs in basically every underlying metric of note. He’s tops in route participation, target share, and air yards share, and he’s scored at least 12.1 DraftKings points in all but one contest. The only thing he’s struggled with is finding the end zone, but there’s no reason he can’t improve there, too. No tight end underperformed their expected TD mark by a higher margin last season, and McBride has 45% of the team’s end zone targets in 2025.
The Cardinals will have to face a tough Packers defense in Week 7, but tight ends have been their biggest weakness. They’ve surrendered the third-most PPR points per game to the position, so McBride has plenty of potential in this spot. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and he’s the clear top choice if paying up at TE across the industry.
Michael Mayer ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
As good as McBride is, Mayer might be the better pure value on DraftKings. He’s available at a significant discount, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.
Mayer is a former second-round pick, but he hasn’t had a ton of opportunities to prove himself at the NFL level. The Raiders used another premium pick on Brock Bowers last season, which pushed Mayer into more of a supporting role.
However, Bowers is currently dealing with an injury, and he’s doubtful to suit up on Sunday. Mayer took on more of a starring role sans Bowers in Week 6, and he responded with a fantastic performance. He posted a massive 32% target share in that contest, and he responded with five catches, 50 yards, and a touchdown. Mayer also ran a route on 80% of the team’s pass attempts in that outing, which is an elite figure for a tight end. Only eight tight ends have better figures for the year, so Mayer is clearly in the TE1 conversation for fantasy purposes until Bowers returns to the lineup.
The only reason Mayer didn’t have a bigger game last week was that the Raiders threw the ball just 23 times in a comfortable win over the Titans. They’re likely going to have to crank the volume up to 11 vs. the Chiefs. They’re currently listed as 12.5-point underdogs, so Mayer could get to double-digit targets in this spot.
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Tyler Warren ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Warren continues to look like the next great rookie tight end. Sam LaPorta and Bowers have held that designation in each of the past two years, and Warren is picking up right where they left off. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his first six games, and he’s currently fourth at the position in PPR points per game.
The Colts’ offense has surprisingly been a juggernaut this season. They’re first in the league in points per game and fourth in yardage, so they’ve moved the ball consistently all season. Their rushing attack has been a big part of their success, but Warren has been a focal point when the team has taken to the air. He owns a 23% target share for the year, which is the best mark on the squad.
Warren posted a 30% target share last week, while his snap share climbed to 88%. It’s possible that his role with the team is only going to continue to grow. The Chargers are far from an elite matchup, but Warren still boasts one of the top ceiling projections at the position. He also has the highest optimal lineup rate across the industry using Sim Labs.
Travis Kelce ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
While the big news for the Chiefs this week involves the return of Rashee Rice at receiver, Kelce has also quietly picked up his play of late. He’s scored at least 13.8 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, garnering 15 total targets with 13 receptions, 139 yards, and one touchdown over that time frame. Kelce has a very respectable 22% target share in those outings, so it’s possible he’s not quite ready to retire and become a full-time podcaster quite yet.
While Rice will likely cut into his workload a bit, there are still plenty of opportunities to go around in Kansas City. The Chiefs are the No. 1 offense in football in terms of Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), and Patrick Mahomes has thrown the ball at least 37 times in four of six games.
The Chiefs’ passing attack has massive upside this week vs. the Raiders. They have the top implied team total on the slate at 29.0 points, and the Raiders have been far worse against the pass than the run this season. They’re merely 19th in terms of pass defense EPA, but they’re No. 6 against the pass.
Add in the fact that the Chiefs have struggled to run the ball all season, and it’s a week where the passing game should take center stage. That gives Kelce plenty of appeal for tournaments, especially with his price tag dipping significantly since the start of the year.
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Tucker Kraft ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
The Packers’ passing attack has a lot of mouths to feed, but Kraft is near the top of the pecking order. He has a 16% target share for the year, which ranks second on the team behind Romeo Doubs.
The Packers have the potential to be a bit thinner than usual in terms of pass-catchers this week. Christian Watson is not yet ready to make his season debut, while Jayden Reed remains out of the lineup. Dontayvion Wicks is also questionable.
Regardless, Kraft should be able to get his. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one game this season, and the Cardinals’ biggest weakness defensively has been defending tight ends. They’ve allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to the position, so Kraft is a viable target in this matchup. He also has the third-highest optimal lineup rate at the position in Sim Labs,
Orande Gadsden ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
We’ve seen a changing of the guard at tight end for the Chargers recently. Gadsden has steadily earned more playing time throughout his rookie season, culminating in a 77% route participation last week vs. the Dolphins. He ultimately finished with eight targets in that outing, which he converted into seven catches for 68 yards.
If Gadsden is going to continue to play that much, he has the potential to provide solid fantasy value. The Chargers have been the No. 2 offense in terms of PROE this season, and they’re currently dealing with a host of injuries at running back. Their best course of action could be to air it out vs. the Colts in a game that is expected to feature plenty of scoring. That game has a 48.5-point total, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. Gadsden is also projected for roughly 5% ownership.
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Almost nothing has gone right for the Eagles’ offense this season. They’re all the way down to 30th in terms of yards per game, which is nearly unfathomable for the team that won the Super Bowl last year. Only the Titans and Bengals have been worse.
Goedert is the one thing that has worked for the Eagles pretty consistently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in every game where he’s suited up, and he popped off for a massive performance last week vs. the Giants. He finished with 29.0 DraftKings points, turning 11 targets into nine catches, 110 yards, and a touchdown.
Goedert has found the paint with regularity this season, scoring five touchdowns over his past four games. Touchdown-dependent players are always risky, but Goedert has also seen at least nine targets in back-to-back games. If he can add a few more catches and yards to his elite touchdown potential, he has the upside to be one of the top-scoring tight ends on a weekly basis. He’s projected for less than 3% ownership on DraftKings, and he has one of the largest discrepancies at the position between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate.
Pictured: Trey McBride
Photo Credit: Imagn
