Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a GPP, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Puka Nacua ($8,700 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel)
Nacua is off to a historic start this season. He’s racked up 52 receptions and 588 receiving yards through the first five weeks, which puts him on pace for nearly 177 grabs and 1,999 receiving yards for a 17-game season. Both of those would be new NFL records, and it would smash the previous reception record of 149 set by Michael Thomas in 2019.
Unsurprisingly, Nacua has rode that production to the top fantasy average at the position so far this season. He’s averaged 26.8 PPR points per game, which is more than four more than the No. 2 player at the position (Amon-Ra St. Brown). He’s also been remarkably consistent, posting a positive Plus/Minus in all five games.
The way that Nacua has done it has been even more impressive. He has just two receiving touchdowns for the year, so his production is based more on volume than fluky scoring. He leads the league with a massive 35% target share, and he’s had at least 11 targets in all but one game. If he can add some additional touchdowns to his resume, he has the potential for one of the best receiving seasons in NFL history.
It’s full steam ahead for Nacua in a juicy matchup vs. the Ravens in Week 6. Their defense has been an absolute trainwreck through five weeks, ranking 30th in EPA per play. They’ve allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers, and the Rams’ 25.75 implied team total ranks fourth on the main slate.
Ultimately, Nacua is arguably the strongest pay-up option in Week 6 regardless of position. There are plenty of values spread out across QB, RB, and WR, so it should be no issue getting him into your cash game lineup.
Stefon Diggs ($5,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Diggs was acquired by the Patriots this offseason to give Drake Maye a legit No. 1 option. They took it easy on him to start the year, but they’ve cranked the volume up to 11 over the past two weeks. Diggs has had a target share of at least 41% in back-to-back games, and he’s had 55% of the team’s air yards over that stretch. He’s responded with more than 100 yards in both contests, so he appears back to being a top fantasy receiver.
Diggs probably won’t maintain a 40+% target share all season. However, if he can sit in the 30% range, he would still stand out as a fantastic value at his current price tags. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where his $5,900 salary comes with a 99% Bargain Rating.
Diggs should be able to feast in this matchup vs. the Saints. Their defense has been far better against the run than the pass this season, ranking just 23rd in pass defense EPA. He ranks third at the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and if his usage from the past two weeks can hold steady, that might end up being conservative.
Chris Olave ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
On the other side of that matchup, Olave has bounced back from an injury-plagued 2024 campaign. He’s had to deal with suboptimal circumstances in New Orleans, but he’s been the team’s clear focus in the pass game. He owns a 30% target share for the year, and he’s been at 29% or higher in all but one game.
That has given Olave a very respectable floor. He’s posted double-digit DraftKings points in all five games, and he’s recorded a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of them.
Olave could be even busier than usual in Week 6. The Patriots have been awesome against the run this season, ranking fourth in rush defense EPA, so the Saints might have to throw the ball a bit more than usual. The Saints have the second-lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) for the year, but they might not have a choice but to air things out in Week 6.
If that happens, Olave’s volume could be even more valuable than usual. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and he trails only Nacua on FanDuel.
Ryan Flournoy ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
If you’re looking for a pure punt play at receiver, Flournoy is a very interesting option. The Cowboys’ passing attack is going to remain thin in Week 6, with CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin both still out with injury. George Pickens and Jake Ferguson figure to be the top two options, but that should still leave some opportunities for Flournoy.
He took full advantage of his extra opportunities in Week 5, finishing with more than 100 receiving yards and six catches in the first half vs. the Jets. He racked up a season-high 64% route participation, and he was targeted on 36% of his routes run.
Fournoy gets an interesting matchup vs. the Panthers on Sunday. Their defense has graded out well against the pass this season, and they’ve allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers. However, most of their attention could be focused on Pickens. Specifically, top corner Jaycee Horn could spend most of his time in that matchup, leaving Flournoy with a significantly easier task. The Cowboys are also still expected to do plenty of scoring in this contest, with their 26.25 implied team total ranking third on the slate.
Flournoy’s $3,600 price tag on DraftKings comes with a 93% Bargain Rating, and he’s third at the position in projected Plus/Minus. Using him opens up tons of possibilities with the rest of your lineup, including pairing two studs like Nacua and Christian McCaffrey.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Tetairoa McMillan ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
McMillan has been underpriced on FanDuel all season, and that remains the case heading into Week 6. His production hasn’t been stellar by any stretch, but that’s been due more to Bryce Young’s struggles than anything else. McMillan has racked up 27% of the team’s targets and 43% of their air yards, so he’s operated like a true No. 1 receiver.
McMillan has been even busier of late, garnering a target share of at least 33% in two of his past three games. If he can see a similar mark vs. the Cowboys, he has the potential to go nuclear. The Cowboys have been the best matchup in fantasy for receivers so far this season, allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position. The Panthers’ receivers lead the slate in Opponent Plus/Minus, so it’s a fantastic spot.
McMillan can potentially be used in cash games on FanDuel, but he has tournament viability across the industry. He has a top-six optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs on both sites.
Emeka Egbuka ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
Egbuka entered the season with pretty high expectations as a rookie. That said, even the most optimistic Egbuka believers probably didn’t see this coming. He’s been the third-best receiver in fantasy in terms of PPR points per game, and he’s coming off the best game of his young career last week vs. the Seahawks. He caught all seven of his targets for 163 yards and a touchdown, resulting in 34.3 DraftKings points.
Egbuka is going to be the team’s clear No. 1 option in the passing game in Week 6. The team is down a ton of talent on offense, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving all ruled out vs. the 49ers. Egbuka did his damage last week on just a 22% target share, and that number should undoubtedly be higher in Week 6.
From a matchup standpoint, the 49ers are pretty neutral. They’ve been slightly below average against the pass this season, ranking 19th in pass defense EPA. Egbuka has the third-highest ceiling projection at the position, and he’s available at a slight discount compared to the top two options.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Smith-Njigba and Nacua are the clear top two receivers in fantasy from a utilization standpoint. While Nacua has been better overall, JSN isn’t far behind in most key metrics. He has a 34% target share for the year, and he’s racked up a 47% air yards share.
The biggest difference between the two players has been their offensive systems. While the Rams are fifth in PROE, the Seahawks rank dead last. That means that JSN’s overall volume hasn’t been nearly as robust as ideal for fantasy purposes.
However, Sam Darnold has played extremely well this season, and the Seahawks let him air things out a bit more in Week 5. That might’ve been due to the matchup – the Buccaneers are extremely stout against the run – and the opposite will be the case this week. The Jags are third in pass defense EPA, but they’re merely 24th against the run. With that in mind, don’t be surprised if the Seahawks revert to a more run-heavy approach.
Still, JSN has managed to overcome the Seahawks’ minimal passing volume all season, scoring at least 20.6 DraftKings points in four of five contests. He trails only Nacua in terms of ceiling projection, and he’s available at a significant discount.
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Ladd McConkey ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
McConkey finally managed to return value in Week 5, though his numbers still left a lot to be desired. He finished with just seven targets, five receptions, and 39 yards, but he did manage to find the end zone for the first time all year. His target share was still just 19% in that contest, so it wasn’t exactly the breakout performance that fantasy players were hoping for.
The good news is that McConkey and the Chargers are in a dream spot this week vs. the Dolphins. Their defense has been the worst in football through five weeks, struggling massively against the run and the pass. The Chargers have been a pass-heavy offense for most of the season, and with their top two running backs currently on IR, it makes more sense for the team to try to exploit Miami through the air.
Herbert is expected to be one of the highest-owned QBs on the slate, but his top receivers aren’t garnering nearly as much interest. McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston all have positive leverage scores in Sim Labs, but McConkey is at the top of the leaderboard. No receiver has a larger gap between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate on DraftKings.
Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Thomas has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy to start the year. He was nothing short of fantastic as a rookie, particularly down the stretch. He finished as the fourth-highest scorer at receiver, and only Ja’Marr Chase had more fantasy points from Week 13 on.
Unfortunately, Thomas has not made the same impact in his second season. His target share has dipped to just 24%, and only 65% of those targets have been deemed catchable. His best finish this season is WR30 in PPR leagues, which is not ideal for a player who was routinely drafted in the second round.
The good news is that Thomas is coming off his best performance in Week 5, finishing with four catches for 80 yards. While that’s still not particularly impressive, he did it against a really tough Chiefs’ pass defense.
Things should be significantly easier for Thomas in Week 6. He’s taking on the Seahawks, whose defense has been decimated by injuries of late. They’re expected to be without two top corners in Riq Woolen and Devin Witherspoon, while safety Julian Love is also listed as doubtful. The Seahawks were shredded by Egbuka and Baker Mayfield last week, so this could be a potential breakout spot for Thomas.
Sterling Shepard ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) & Tez Johnson ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel)
Egbuka is going to get most of the attention for the Bucs on Sunday, but they have two other receivers who could potentially provide big value. With the team so banged up at receiver, there’s a chance for both of these players to see plenty of action.
Shepard is the more expensive of the two, and he’s been a pretty consistent part of the team’s passing attack all year. He owns a 73% route participation and 15% target share overall, and he’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in two of his past three games.
However, Shepard did take a slight step back last week in terms of routes run, and Johnson was the biggest beneficiary. His route participation got up to a season-high 49%, and he could be even more involved with Godwin joining Evans on the sidelines.
Jauan Jennings ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Jennings is officially listed as questionable for Sunday’s matchup vs. the Buccaneers after missing last week’s contest. However, he was at least able to return to practice on a limited basis on Friday, which gives him a chance to return. He’s tentatively considered a true “game-time decision,” so this is something worth monitoring on Sunday morning.
If Jennings is able to go, he should be the team’s clear No. 1 receiver. Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall have already been ruled out, leaving Jennings as the last man standing. He’s already posted one top-12 PPR finish at receiver in just three games played, so he has plenty of upside in that role.
His upside is even greater in this specific matchup. He’s taking on the Bucs, who are merely 27th in pass defense EPA. They’re No. 1 against the run, which forces opposing offenses to attack them through the air. The Bucs’ offense is also fantastic, which sets up excellent game scripts for opposing receivers.
If Jennings is able to go, he’ll likely be one of the most undervalued pass-catchers on the slate. If he can’t go, Kendrick Bourne ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) is a pretty easy pivot. He thrived as the 49ers’ top receiver last week, racking up 11 targets, 10 receptions, and 142 yards against a much tougher Rams’ defense.
Pictured: Stefon Diggs
Photo Credit: Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
