Yahooooo! There are only 10 games on the Yahoo main slate that begins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday because the Falcons, Saints, Jets, and 49ers are all on bye while the Dolphins and Jags are playing across the pond.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
Lamar Jackson ($34) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I was going to go with Patrick Mahomes since I thought the Projected Ownership numbers would be depressed due to his performance on Monday Night, the $40 price tag, and people flocking to the Chargers-Ravens game, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce all look to be the top-rostered players at their positions. That makes me sad because the matchup is fantastic, but that game has the highest over/under of 55.5 according to the Vegas Dashboard, so it was wishful thinking on my part.
Lamar has the highest projection according to the Player Model and is priced at $33. That translates to a 53% Bargain rating, and the projected Plus/Minus is a slate-high 8.51. Mahomes is in second at 5.18.
The matchup isn’t the juiciest as the opponent Plus/Minus is -2.8, the worst on the slate. While the Chargers allowed 42 points to the Browns last week, they held the Raiders to 14 points, the Chiefs to 24 points, the Cowboys to 20 points, and the Football Team to 16 points.
The Vegas Dashboard has the Ravens implied for 27.5 points with the Chargers at 25 points, but the range of outcomes for this game is wide. It could shoot out or be a defensive struggle. That said, the rushing prowess provides an incredibly high floor while we saw the ceiling on Monday Night. So far this season, Lamar has averaged a +9.03 Plus/Minus and exceeded point expectations 80% of the time.
Top Value
Taylor Heinicke ($29) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This game has the highest over/under on the slate, with the Chiefs at a whopping 31 points. Ron Rivera has never been known to turtle up, so the Football Team will remain aggressive throughout. Heinicke has the sixth-highest projection according to the models and is priced at a palatable $28.
The matchup is fantastic as the Chiefs are 31st in pass defense DVOA, and the opponent Plus/Minus is +10.9, the highest on the slate.
Heinicke has averaged a +5.0 Plus/Minus this season and exceeded point expectations 60% of the time. As with Lamar Jackson, he has some rushing prowess that elevates the floor. On the season, he’s rushed three, four, eight, five, and five times while gaining at least 40 yards in each of the last two contests. He has a total of five red-zone rushes on the year as well.
Top Tournament Play
Joe Burrow ($28) at Detroit Lions
The bear case for Burrow: the Bengals pass at the 22nd-highest rate in the NFL and are 24th in offensive pace. The Lions are 28th in rush defense DVOA, so there’s a chance the Bengals just ground and pound.
The bull case for Burrow: the Vegas Dashboard has the Bengals implied for 25.25 while the Lions are at 22.25. The Lions are also at home and are 27th in pass defense DVOA. After opening the season with 27, 30, and 18 pass attempts which translated to sub-20 DraftKings performances, Burrow has attempted 32 and 38 passes and gone over 20 DraftKings points in the last two games.
What if the Lions put up points making this a back and forth affair? What if Joe Burrow was being eased into the season due to his knee injury and will be unleashed? There are a lot of ifs, but those ifs bring a low projected ownership number.
Running Backs
Top Play
Austin Ekeler ($33) at Baltimore Ravens
On the season, he’s averaging a +7.79 Plus/Minus and has exceeded point expectations 100% of the time.
While he hasn’t carried the ball more than 17 times in any game, he’s exceeded 100 yards once and scored four touchdowns on the ground. It’s the involvement in the passing game that provides both a higher floor and ceiling, though. After not receiving a target in Week 1, Ekeler has garnered nine, six, five, and five, turning them into 194 yards and three touchdowns. Not to be outdone, Ekeler has 17 carries and four targets in the red zone.
The matchup is a good one as the Ravens are 29th in DVOA against receptions to running backs.
Top Value
Jonathan Taylor ($23) vs. Houston Texans
He’s $23 and gets one of the best matchups for a running back vs. the Houston Texans, who are 30th in rush defense DVOA.
There is some risk because he only garnered 52% of the snaps last week while Nyheim Hines received 38% and Marlon Mack got 14%. That said, the Colts are favored by 10 points in this one, so there should be less of Hines and more of Taylor. He has also received seven, one, three, three, and four targets in the passing game, so he’s not a complete zero in that area.
Per the Trends tool, Taylor has played in a game when the Colts were favored by seven or more points five times in his career. He averaged 20.9 DraftKings points, had a +6.22 Plus/Minus, and had an 80% Consistency Rating. In those game games, he carried 30, 16, 12, 13, and 9 times. The 30-carry game was the last game of his rookie season, and he put up a whopping 41.4 DraftKings points.
Top Tournament Play
D’Andre Swift ($20) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This game, in general, looks like it’s going to get overlooked. Swift is only $20 but has a similar projection to Darrell Henderson, who will likely be the most rostered running back this weekend.
Swift has double-digit carries in only three games as he splits the duties with Jamaal Williams. He has 11, five, seven, six, and six targets in the passing game, though. He also gets red-zone usage with seven carries and two targets on the season.
He has two sub-10 DraftKings point games, but then in the other three, he went for 20.4, 20.2, and 19.4.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Davante Adams ($37) at Chicago Bears
Adams leads the league with 61 targets and 12.2 per game. He’s garnering a robust 38% target share! Last season, the Bears were second in DVOA against No. 1 receivers. This season? They’re 30th.
Top Value
Courtland Sutton ($20) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
He’s priced at $20 and faces a Raiders team that is in disarray, and I’m not just talking about the Jon Gruden debacle. They’ve suffered numerous injuries in the secondary and will be starting Amik Robertson across from Casey Hayward. Robertson has a 42.9 PFF grade and has allowed 0.5 fantasy points per route. For perspective, Hayward has allowed 0.05.
The targets have been all over the map this season, but he’s received eight and 11 in the last two games and is coming off a seven reception, 120-yard performance with a touchdown.
Top Tournament Play
Michael Pittman ($15) vs. Houston Texans
He’s priced at $15 but is in the top 20 for projections at the position.
The prevailing thought is that the Colts will just ground and pound the Texans into submission. There’s a reason why I wrote up Jonathan Taylor above. The Texans have the ninth-best pass defense DVOA, but there’s a chance that rating is high because teams eschew passing and just pound them on the ground.
What if Taylor body blows the Texans defense, then Pittman is the one who scores the touchdowns? What if this game goes back and forth? As crazy as that sounds, the Colts are 30th in pass defense DVOA, and Davis Mills is coming off a 312-yard game with three touchdowns against the Patriots.
Tight End
Top Play
Travis Kelce ($30) at Washington Football Team
The spread between Kelce and the field is the smallest I’ve seen in a while. Kelce is at $30, while Darren Waller is at $24. Kelce has the highest Floor/Ceiling Projection on the slate, as he usually is.
The production hasn’t been robust lately as he’s gone for 14.7 and 4.3 DraftKings points in the last two games, but the floor/ceiling combo is one of the highest on the slate. Kelce has received seven, eight, 11, six, and 10 targets while going over 100 yards in two games and scoring a total of four touchdowns.
Top Value
Hunter Henry ($15) vs. Dallas Cowboys
He’s priced at $15 and is one of the top 10-highest projected at the position. The season started slowly for Henry, but he’s increased the DraftKings production every week – 4.6, 5.2, 6.1, 11.2, and 16.5. He’s coming off a game where he caught six of eight targets for 75 yards and a touchdown.
This game has a healthy over/under of 52, with the Patriots implied for 24.25 points. The Cowboys are 31st in DVOA against tight ends.
Top Tournament Play
Dalton Schultz ($15) at New England Patriots
He’s priced at $15 and is one of the top 10-highest projected at the position but may go overlooked on this slate.
The Patriots have been good defending tight ends this season as they are seventh in DVOA and have allowed the fewest fantasy points against. That said, Schultz has received seven, eight, and eight targets in the last three games and gone for 80, 58, and 79 yards while scoring three touchdowns.
Defense
Top Play
Los Angeles Rams ($13) at New York Giants
At $13, they have a Bargain Rating of 86%, with the highest projection and Plus/Minus on the slate. The Rams are 13th in pass rush and 12th in adjusted sack rate. The Giants are 23rd in pass blocking and could be without Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Kenny Golladay.
Top Value
See Top Play.
Tournament Play
Kansas City Chiefs ($10) at Washington Football Team
I know, I know. They’ve been terrible as they are 27th in adjusted sack rate and 31st in pass defense DVOA. That said, they are implied for a slate-high 31 points, so the Football Team will likely have to be aggressive.
That means more opportunities for sacks and turnovers. Heinicke has thrown five interceptions and been sacked five times this season. The Football Team stack will be a popular one, so the Chiefs would provide fantastic leverage, and they are $10.
