The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks
Josh Allen ($7,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
There is simply no doubt about who the best QB in fantasy is at this point. Allen has taken the top spot and run away from the rest of the pack. He’s averaged 29.2 fantasy points per game so far this season, and no other QB is above 23.7.
He has simply too many tools in his arsenal. His legs have become an even bigger weapon than in years past. He’s averaged a career-high 8.6 carries per game through the first five weeks, and he’s already racked up eight rushing touchdowns. He had the fourth 100-yard rushing game of his career last week vs. the Rams, racking up 121 yards and a score.
Of course, Allen is also extremely capable with his arm. He’s averaged 249.8 passing yards per game this season, which is up pretty significantly from his marks the past two seasons. His average of 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt is also a new career high.
It doesn’t really matter who Allen is playing at this point; he’s always going to have the top projections at the position. That said, Allen does have an interesting matchup this week. The Raiders got off to a good start defensively this season, but they were absolutely torched by Drake Maye for 42.46 DraftKings points last week. If Maye can do it, there’s no reason Allen can’t too.
Matthew Stafford ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Paying up for a stud QB is always tough, especially on DraftKings. That makes pivoting to Stafford a nice alternative.
He clearly doesn’t have the same high-end upside as Allen. Stafford is old, and mobility has never really been his strong suit. As a result, he’s basically a statue at this point in his career. Rushing upside has always been the key to fantasy production at QB, with most of the top options capable of picking up points with their legs.
That makes Stafford a clear outlier. Only Allen averaged more fantasy points per game at the position last season, making Stafford the most productive pure passer in the league. He’s off to another strong start with his right arm this season, scoring at least 25.9 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. Stafford has arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league at wide receiver, and he’s not afraid to pepper Puka Nacua and Davante Adams with as many targets as necessary. He’s attempted at least 51 passes in three straight games, and the Rams rank eighth in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE).
No team possesses more scoring upside this week. The Rams are listed as 12.5-point favorites in a game with a 52-point total. It results in an implied team total of 32.25 points, which is absurdly high. Ultimately, Stafford ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks
Drake Maye ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
It seems like Maye has turned the corner. He got off to a brutal start this season, looking nothing like the guy who finished second in the MVP voting last year. However, he bounced back with a strong performance in Week 4, and he went crazy last week against the Raiders. Maye racked up 374 passing yards and four touchdowns, and he added another 25 yards and a score on the ground. He finished with 42.46 DraftKings points, which was the top output for any quarterback so far this season.
If Maye is back to performing like he did last year, he’s available at a discount across the industry. That’s particularly true on FanDuel. His 83% Bargain Rating is tied for the second-best mark at the position, and he averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.48 with a comparable salary last year (per the Trends tool).
Maye’s matchup vs. the Jets isn’t ideal, with New York currently ranking top five in both yards and points per game allowed. However, they dip to 12th in pass defense EPA, and they haven’t exactly faced a who’s-who of opposing offenses. In their one matchup against a good team, the Lions lit them up for 381 yards and 31 points. The Bears also managed 492 yards against them without Caleb Williams, so it’s far from an impossible matchup.
Caleb Williams ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
Speaking of Williams, he’s expected to make his return to the lineup this week. He’s been out since suffering a hamstring injury in Week 2, and it’s easy to forget how he started the year. The Bears went absolutely nuclear in Week 1, racking up 59 points and more than 550 yards of total offense. Ben Johnson talked about setting a new record for points scored in a year, and it didn’t feel that far-fetched after that showing.
Williams struggled against the Vikings’ fantastic defense in Week 2, in a game played in poor weather. Now that he’s back healthy, he and the Bears’ offense could be ready to take off.
He’ll square off with the Falcons in Week 6 in a game that should feature plenty of offense. The total continues to rise, and it’s currently 50.5 points. That’s the third-highest mark on the main slate. The Bears are also listed as just 1.5-point road favorites, so it’s expected to be an excellent game environment overall.
Williams could be a bit overlooked in his first game back. Allen, Stafford, and Maye are expected to command most of the ownership at the position, so everyone else has the potential to be a value. Williams is projected for less than 5% ownership on DraftKings, but his upside is immense in this offense.
Patrick Mahomes ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
The Chiefs are back after their Week 5 bye, and they’ll look to continue their unbeaten start to the year. Their offense has looked more dangerous than it has in years. Adding Kenneth Walker has given them a legit weapon in the backfield, which has opened things up for Mahomes through the air. Overall, they’re fourth in EPA per play, trailing only the Bills, 49ers, and Lions.
Mahomes is also having his best statistical season in years. He has nine touchdown passes through four games, and he’s averaged 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt. That’s his best mark since 2019-20. For fantasy purposes, he’s QB7 in terms of fantasy points per game.
The Chiefs get to ease back into the regular season with a matchup vs. the Chargers. While that’s not quite a bye week, the Chargers are 0-5 and look completely lost on offense. As a result, the Chiefs are listed as 8.5-point home favorites. The Chargers’ defense hasn’t been a disaster, but Mahomes still has the fourth-highest ceiling projection at the position.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside
Deshaun Watson ($4,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Most people did not expect Watson to still be the Browns’ starting QB at this point in the year. However, he’s played some of his best football in a Browns uniform. That is admittedly a low bar to clear, but he’s averaged 7.2 adjusted yards per attempt with seven passing touchdowns.
Watson still hasn’t been elite for fantasy purposes, but he’s dirt cheap at just $4,900 on DraftKings. That’s just $100 more than Jalon Daniels and Cam Ward, and Watson has more upside than both. His price tag comes with a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, which is the best mark at the position. It makes him the best source of savings at quarterback, and he’s projected for almost no ownership.
Lamar Jackson ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
The Ravens pulled out a comeback win over the Falcons with Tyler Huntley under center last week, but they will be happy to see their starting QB back in action. He is tentatively expected to suit up vs. the Browns.
Jackson hasn’t quite been vintage Lamar Jackson to start the year. He did have 28.96 DraftKings points vs. the Colts in Week 1, but he posted a negative Plus/Minus in the following three games.
Still, we know what Jackson is capable of at his best. He has more rushing upside than just any QB in football, even if he isn’t using his legs at quite the same rate. He remains an undervalued passer, putting up some of the best efficiency numbers at the position over the past few years.
He’s currently leading the league in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, and quarterback rating, so he doesn’t necessarily need to run as much as he used to. He still has one of the top ceilings at the position, even against a tough Browns’ defense.
Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
Photo Credit: Imagn
