Jets at Bills
This game has a 40-point Vegas total and is currently a pick’em. The Bills, playing at home, are implied to score 20 points, as are the visiting Jets. The Bills originally opened as 3.0-point favorites. The weather in Buffalo on Thursday night is clear with a low of 52 degrees and winds at 5-10 miles per hour.
New York Jets
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick posted career highs in passing yards (3,905) and touchdown passes (31) last season but has a much more difficult schedule in 2016. In Week 1 against the Bengals, Fitzpatrick was wildly inefficient (77.0 QBR). Although he threw two touchdowns to save his fantasy day, Fitzpatrick really struggled to get on the same page with No. 1 receiver Brandon Marshall. He overthrew him on a sure touchdown pass on a post route and the two failed to connect on both targets inside the ten-yard line.
On a short week headed to Buffalo, Fitzpatrick will face a team that last year hovered right around the league average for passing yards allowed per game (248.25) but that held Joe Flacco to 258 yards and one touchdown in Week 1. Fitzpatrick has the ninth-highest rating in the Bales Player Model on a team with one of the lowest implied totals on the slate. Per our Trends tool, road quarterbacks on FanDuel with similar salary and projected points have averaged a +2.39 Plus/Minus.
RB – Matt Forte
In 2015, a league-high 59.6 percent of fantasy points from the Jets backfield came from the passing game. This team throws to its running backs. Forte had seven targets (18.92 percent target share) to Powell’s four (10.81 percent) in Week 1, and he led the Jets in both rushing and receiving with 156 total yards on 27 touches. When Chris Ivory moved on to Jacksonville, his 85 percent market share of carries inside the five-yard line became available. Forte seems to have taken on the role of grinder, as he saw five red zone carries in this game, 71.4 percent of the team’s carries within the 20. He was stuffed in his only attempt inside the five, however — but at least the role is his.
It is hard to imagine that the Jets will load the 30-year old Forte up with this kind of volume all season, and we need to prepare ourselves for the possibility that Powell could be more involved against Buffalo on a short week. Forte has just the 48th-best Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at the running back position in Week 2.
RB – Bilal Powell
Powell was one of the most underrated players in DFS last year: He finished ninth among running backs with 63 total targets (5.7 per game). Still, this is a new year and Powell trailed Forte by a wide margin in Week 1 with just 10.81 and 13.33 percent target and rushing shares. He had the same number of rush attempts (four) as Fitzpatrick and touched the ball just once in the red zone.
While offseason reports suggested that the Jets backfield could have a 50/50 split, Powell had just six touches in Week 1. He was extremely efficient (10.25 yards per carry), and it’s possible that Powell could see more touches on a short week in Buffalo, but until we get a better idea of how touches will be distributed in this offense Powell remains a risky start in DFS.
WR – Brandon Marshall
Target share has always been a huge part of Marshall’s appeal. Last year he had a 28.7 percent target share, the seventh-highest average among all receivers, per Player Profiler. Pair that with a 30.5 percent red-zone target share and you’re really cooking with gas.
But in Week 1 Marshall had one of his worst games in recent memory, catching just three passes for 32 yards on eight targets. However, he still had a 27.03 percent target share and 37.5 percent share of red-zone targets. His efficiency on these targets is no reason to panic. Per our Trends tool, in the 10 games from the last two years in which Marshall has seen at least a 27.0 percent target share, he has averaged 20.27 DraftKings points, +3.28 Plus/Minus, and 60.0 percent Consistency.
According to our Matchups tool, this week Marshall draws Ronald Darby, the No. 8 cornerback from Week 1 (per Pro Football Focus). Even in a tough matchup, Marshall still has the slate’s eighth-highest projected ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel for wide receivers.
WR – Eric Decker
Decker averaged a touchdown every 11 targets in 2015. He picked up where he left off in Week 1, when he caught his first touchdown of the season in a game in which he had just two receptions on seven targets and the offense really struggled. Historically, Decker looks to be in a tough spot this week. With comparable salaries, point projections, Vegas team totals, and average target totals, wide receivers have traditionally underperformed. Per our Trends tool:
WR – Quincy Enunwa
As we all predicted, Enunwa caught more passes than Decker and Marshall combined in Week 1 en route to a 21.62 percent target share and red-zone touchdown grab. He was very much involved against the Bengals and is worth monitoring as a possible DFS flyer in guaranteed prize pools if the Jets remain a pass-happy team.
TE – Kellen Davis
Apparently the Jets have a tight end on their roster. Seeing 76 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 1, Davis is excellent at pretending to be an ineligible receiver.
Buffalo Bills
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tyrod Taylor
In nine of 14 games last season, Taylor rushed for 40 or more yards in a Bills offense that averaged the sixth-highest yards per play in the league (5.7 yards). In Week 1, Taylor had just five rushing attempts for 11 yards against the Ravens, and as a team they ran 24 rush plays to just 22 passing plays. Head coach Rex Ryan seems content to keep the reins on Taylor. Even when things aren’t working, they just don’t want to put the ball in the air. Per PFF, Taylor was 28th in Week 1 with a 5.7-yard average depth of target. For reference: Alex Smith finished dead last in the NFL last year with a per-game aDot of 6.8 yards per attempt.
Basically, the Bills’ offense looked like it belonged in the minor leagues in Week 1. Maybe part of that had to do with the lingering injury foot injury to Taylor’s top target, Sammy Watkins, who was far from 100 percent. Taylor is currently the 29th-rated DraftKings quarterback in the Cash Game Model. In Week 2, he faces a Jets defense that gave up the fourth-fewest total yards per game last season (318.63).
RB – LeSean McCoy
McCoy could lead the league in touches in 2016, as he clearly is the guy in Buffalo, boasting a 66.7 percent rushing share and 18.18 percent target share in Week 1. By halftime, McCoy had 17 touches and three red-zone rushing attempts, one of which he converted for a touchdown. Of course, because the Bills’ offense looked so basic his touches weren’t worth nearly as much as they might otherwise be.
In Week 2, McCoy could be heavily impacted by injuries to teammates. Keep an eye on the status of Watkins’ foot. If he is incapable of stretching the field, McCoy will likely face more stacked boxes. Also, Cordy Glenn (arguably the Bills’ best offensive lineman) could miss Thursday’s game with an injured ankle.
Even with volume on his side, it could be tough sledding for McCoy against the Jets. As a team they last year gave up the second-fewest rushing yards (83.44) and fewest rushing touchdowns (0.25) per game. They limited the Bengals rushing attack to 56 yards on 14 attempts in Week 1.
RB – Reggie Bush
McCoy is locked in as the early-down and goal-line back for the Bills offense. In Week 1 Bush was a clear backup relegated to spelling McCoy only when necessary. He’s projected to score just 3.8 FD points on Thursday and has one of the lowest projected floors in the slate.
WR – Sammy Watkins
Watkins (foot) had just six targets in Week 1 against the Ravens. He did not participate in the Bills’ practice on Tuesday, but he did dress for the walk through. This seems to indicate that he will be ready for his matchup against Darrelle Revis on Thursday night, but he will definitely not be 100 percent.
Offensive coordinator Greg Roman uses play-action to set up the deep ball, and Watkins is one of the more explosive receivers in the league when healthy. In 2015, Watkins averaged 2.28 fantasy points per target, the second-highest average among all receivers (per Player Profiler). Although Watkins won’t be 100 percent, he still might be healthy enough to expose Revis, who was eviscerated in last week by A.J. Green. Per our Trends tool:
Even if Watkins does just half of that, that could be enough.
WR – Robert Woods
Woods handled five targets in Week 1. That’s nice, but he failed to top 50 yards in 78.57 percent of his games in 2015. More importantly, when Watkins missed three games last year, Woods failed to serve as a consistent No. 1 receiver. With Watkins injured, Woods (along with tight end Charles Clay) could see an uptick in usage, but the Watkins injury still isn’t a ‘good’ thing for the fantasy value of anyone on this offense. The thought of Woods as a WR1 in an offense is a scary proposition.
WR – Greg Salas
Salas returns kicks but will not be a useful option in DFS even if Watkins is limited.
TE – Charles Clay
Clay probably stands to benefit most if Watkins is limited, as his 27.27 percent Week 1 target share has to go somewhere. Clay had three targets against the Ravens (13.6 percent target share) and played 98 percent of the offensive snaps. He saw the majority of his production come on a 33-yard passing play deep through the middle of the field. Clay didn’t get a lot of red-zone action with the Bills last year (just three red-zone targets), but he’s a guy with potential all over the field.
News Updates
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