Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks
Bijan Robinson ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)
The Falcons offense was as bad as expected in Week 1. They scored just one touchdown, while Cooper Rush struggled to get anything done as a passer. He ultimately finished with just 143 passing yards and two interceptions, and the Falcons suffered a seven-point loss.
Despite all that, Robinson still managed to get to 31.3 DraftKings points. He was basically the team’s entire offense. He had 21 carries and 83 yards on the ground, and he had 10 targets, eight receptions, 90 yards, and a touchdown through the air. That isn’t just elite utilization, it’s basically unheard of. He amassed a ridiculous 53% target share for the Falcons, with the rest of the team’s pass-catchers going for just four catches and 53 yards.
While Robinson probably isn’t going to be that involved on a weekly basis, he’s clearly going to be a huge part of their offense. He’s in position for another strong showing this week vs. the Panthers. Their defense was just absolutely shredded by the Bears, particularly on the ground. Chicago rushed for 291 yards and six touchdowns last week, and while the Falcons don’t possess nearly the same level of firepower, it’s undoubtedly a favorable spot.
On a slate without Jahmyr Gibbs, Robinson owns the clear top marks at the RB position. He leads the main slate in median and ceiling projection, and he’s also first in projected Plus/Minus.
Aaron Jones ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Jones stands out as the top value option on the slate. He was expected to form a committee with Jordan Mason in the Vikings’ backfield this season, but Mason went down with a thumb injury in Week 1. He was placed on the IR, opening the door for Jones to serve as the team’s bell-cow running back.
Mason and Jones were the only RBs on the Vikings to receive a carry last week. Mason had 15, while Jones wasn’t too far behind with 12. Jones should assume most of those looks vs. the Bears while maintaining most of the pass-catching responsibilities. In his lone game without Mason last year, Jones had 18 carries, 53 yards, and a touchdown while adding three catches and 10 yards at a receiver. You’ll gladly take that level of production at his current price tag.
Playing the Bears also results in a potentially elite game script. The Bears and Panthers combined for nearly 90 points in Week 1, so the Vikings should have the opportunity to score some points in this contest. The total in this matchup sits at 48.5 points, which is the second-highest mark on the main slate.
Derrick Henry ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
The Ravens offense put together a John Wick performance in Week 1. Yeah, I’m thinking that they’re back.
To be fair, Henry never really left. He still managed 1,745 total yards and 16 touchdowns last season, despite the rest of the offense taking a clear step back.
Henry will turn 33 years old this season, but he’s still getting the job done at an elite level. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry in Week 1 vs. the Colts, and he finished with 144 yards and three touchdowns.
Henry still doesn’t provide much as a pass-catcher, but that doesn’t really matter when you’re as good as he is on the ground. That’s especially true when the Ravens’ offense is humming like they were in Week 1.
The Ravens are also massive favorites in Week 2. They’re currently listed as 8.5-point favorites, and Henry has historically thrived as a big favorite throughout his career. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.68 when favored by at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool).
Henry trails only Robinson in terms of projected Plus/Minus on this slate, and pairing those two together should be the default strategy for many.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks
Christian McCaffrey ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
McCaffrey’s performance was not what we’ve come to expect from him in Week 1. He had just 10 carries and five receptions, and he lost plenty of work to backup Kaelon Black. McCaffrey ultimately played on just 55% of the snaps and handled just 36% of the carries, which clearly limited his fantasy production.
The good news is that McCaffrey was still really productive when he was on the field. He averaged better than six yards per carry, and he was still a massive focus of the passing attack. He was targeted on 38% of his routes run, and he finished with a 24% target share overall.
After the game, head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters that McCaffrey was dealing with cramps. That helps explain the modest usage, and it’s likely that McCaffrey takes on a larger workload in Week 2.
That could pay massive dividends vs. the Dolphins. We just saw them get shredded by Ashton Jeanty, particularly as a receiver. He had six catches for 45 yards and two touchdowns, and McCaffrey is arguably the best receiving back in football. The 49ers are also listed as nearly two touchdown favorites, so McCaffrey could have plenty of opportunities on the ground as well.
McCaffrey could end up being a bit overlooked in tournaments. Henry and Robinson are projected for more ownership, so pivoting to McCaffrey could make sense.
Saquon Barkley ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Barkley is another RB that stands out from a Vegas standpoint. They’re taking on the Titans, who were dominated by the Jets in Week 1. The Eagles are listed as seven-point road favorites, and that could end up being conservative.
Like with Henry, Barkley has historically fared well as a big favorite. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.68 as a favorite of at least a touchdown. He was even better in that split two years ago (+4.10) before taking a slight step back last year.
Philadelphia’s offense still had some hiccups against the Commanders, but Barkley at least looked like his usual self. He averaged 5.5 yards per attempt, though he didn’t manage to find the end zone. If he can get back in the paint vs. the Titans, he could be poised for a strong showing.
Javonte Williams ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Williams was quietly a big winner at the end of training camp. The team decided to move on from Jaydon Blue, despite drafting him just two years ago. Malik Davis was set to serve as his backup RB, but then he went down with an injury. It left Williams with minimal competition for touches in the Cowboys’ backfield.
Williams showed what he was capable of with that type of role in Week 1. He had 73% of the snaps and 75% of the carries vs. the Giants, and he added a 16% target share. That included all of the carries from inside the five-yard line. The result was some of the best utilization in football at the position, and he responded with 21.7 DraftKings points.
As long as Williams continues to see that type of workload, he’s underpriced across the industry. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, and he ranks third at the position in projected Plus/Minus.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside
D’Andre Swift ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
How to approach the Bears’ backfield is a big question this week. Their run game was absolutely electric in Week 1, but both of their running backs are currently banged up. Swift was limited by knee and ankle injuries at Thursday’s practice, while Kyle Monangai was limited with a hamstring injury. It seems like both guys will likely be in the lineup vs. the Vikings, but with this already being a committee, fantasy owners may simply look elsewhere.
Week 1 proved why that would be a mistake. This offense could be poised for a monster year, and Swift still has immense upside even in a timeshare. He had just a 56% carry share in Week 1, yet he still ripped off 35.4 DraftKings. That obviously won’t be a weekly occurrence, but Swift’s ceiling could be among the best at the position in 2026-27.
Despite his huge game, Swift is currently projecting for roughly 5% ownership on this slate. That’s below his optimal lineup rate in SimLabs, making him a nice contrarian choice for tournaments.
Breece Hall ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
Is it possible that the Jets… aren’t that bad? That remains to be seen, but they looked the part in Week 1. Geno Smith played as well as any quarterback in the league, while they had four separate guys inside the top 20 in terms of Next Gen Stats top speed.
Hall was one of them, and he had a productive fantasy day as well. He racked up more than 100 yards and a score on the ground, and he caught both of his targets as well. The Jets will face a much stiffer test vs. the Packers in Week 2, but they’re catching Green Bay at a great time. Dating back to last season, Green Bay is now 0-5 without Micah Parsons in the lineup, and their defense has simply not looked the same without him.
JK Dobbins ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
The Broncos were a bit of a disaster in Week 1, but we at least got some questions answered in terms of their backfield usage. This had the potential to be a true three-man split, but that wasn’t the case vs. the Chiefs. Dobbins operated as the team’s clear lead back, racking up 62% of the team’s carries. R.J. Harvey worked as their primary pass-catching RB, while Jonah Coleman didn’t see a single opportunity. That’s a big development for both Dobbins and Harvey.
The Broncos shouldn’t be forced to play from behind in the future as much as they were in Week 1. They draw another tough matchup this week vs. the Jaguars, but they are listed as home favorites. If they can get out in front, Dobbins seems like the guy who should get most of the opportunities. He’s another player that looks undervalued in SimLabs.
Jeremiah Love ($5,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
It’s rare to see a player with a cheaper price tag on FanDuel than DraftKings, but that’s the case for Love. He checks in at just $5,700, resulting in a 98% Bargain Rating.
Love’s usage in Week 1 wasn’t great (11 carries, four targets), but he entered that game a bit banged up. He was sidelined towards the end of training camp with an injury, so his role has the potential to grow moving forward.
Love was also hurt by the game script. The Cardinals surprisingly led throughout vs. the Chargers, and Tyler Allgeier was the primary between-the-tackles runner in that contest. Love figures to be more of the pass-catching RB, so he could see more usage in games where the Cardinals are playing from behind. That could certainly be the case this week vs. the Seahawks.
Pictured: Bijan Robinson
Photo Credit: Imagn
