Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Juwan Johnson ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
While plenty of bad teams are simply playing out the stretch at this point, the Saints are still fighting hard. They’ve won four straight games, despite dealing with plenty of absences on offense. The team is without its top three running backs, and they traded away Rashid Shaheed before the deadline. Tyler Shough has given the team the best quarterback play they’ve received since Drew Brees, and he has seemingly solidified his spot as the team’s starter heading into next season.
Shough has gotten the best out of the weapons at his disposal. Chris Olave has turned in a fantastic season, while Johnson has been a reliable fantasy tight end. Johnson has averaged 12.0 PPR points per game since Shough took over, which is the eighth-best mark at the position.
Johnson has been extremely reliable over that time frame. He’s scored at least 7.0 DraftKings points in each outing, and he’s had double-digit DraftKings points in seven of his past 10. That includes at least 13.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back contests.
Johnson wraps up his season with a matchup vs. the Falcons, who have been tough on opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed the third-fewest PPR points per game to the position, so it will be one of the toughest tests Johnson has faced in weeks.
Still, with the way he and Shough have been playing recently, he’s tough to ignore at a reasonable salary across the industry. He ranks No. 2 in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Tre McBride ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
McBride has turned in an elite season at the tight end position. He’s scored more than 300 PPR points across the first 17 weeks, which is more than 100 points clear of the No. 2 option (Kyle Pitts). Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, and Mark Andrews are the only other TEs in history to clear 300 PPR points in a season, which is elite company.
McBride would need more than 28.5 PPR points to eclipse Gronkowski’s record, albeit with one additional game played. While that’s a big ask, it’s possible for McBride. He’s had four games with at least 29.4 DraftKings points this season, including one game with more than 40.
McBride was coming off a rare down showing in Week 16, but he bounced back with 23.6 DraftKings points last week vs. the Bengals. Cincinnati has been historically bad against tight ends this season, and McBride took full advantage. He turned 13 targets into 10 catches, 76 yards, and a score, and he has had elite utilization ever since Jacoby Brissett took over at quarterback. He leads the position in target share for the year, and he’s been much more likely to find the paint with Kyler Murray on the sidelined.
McBride should also benefit from the absence of Marvin Harrison Jr. in his final game of the year. He hasn’t seen as large a spike as Michael Wilson in that split, but it still gives him the opportunity for a few additional targets.
McBride struggled in his first game vs. the Rams this season, but he still saw nine targets in that contest. He has the top ceiling at the position easily, and he also ranks first in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
Brenton Strange ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
The Jaguars stand out as the clear top team target on this slate. They have everything to play for in Week 18, and they draw an elite matchup vs. the Titans. As a result, their implied team total of 30.5 points is the top mark of the week.
The Jaguars’ passing attack has also been very impressive of late. Trevor Lawrence is playing some of the best football of his career, which has propelled the team to seven straight wins. They’ve averaged 32.6 points per game during their winning streak, and they’re fourth in passing EPA over that timeframe.
Strange has been a solid piece of their passing attack since returning from IR in Week 12. He’s posted a respectable 16% target share during that stretch, and he’s been at 18% or higher in four of six gams. He has three top-10 finishes at the position in those outings, though he’s been 20th or lower in the other three.
That gives him a pretty wide range of outcomes, but he undoubtedly has appeal against the Titans. They’re below average in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, and Strange is first at the position in projected Plus/Minus. I prefer Johnson for cash games due to his superior floor, but Strange could end up being the better pure value.
Chig Okonkwo ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
On the other side of that matchup, Okonkwo has some tournament appeal for the Titans. While the Jaguars have been excellent defensively for most of the year, defending tight ends has been one of their biggest weaknesses. They’ve allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to the position.
Okonkwo has also seen a nice spike in opportunities in recent weeks. He’s posted target shares of 27% and 21% over his past two contests, and he’s managed to score in both outings. Overall, he’s finished as a top-six scorer at the position in both weeks.
Okonkwo has always had the physical tools to excel at the position. He ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at the 2022 NFL Combine, which puts him in the 97th percentile at tight end. It gives him more big-play upside than most of his peers, which we’ve seen in recent weeks. He had a 43-yard touchdown last week vs. the Saints, giving him solid upside at a pretty cheap price tag.
Okonkwo is particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $3,400 salary comes with an 81% Bargain Rating. It’s tied for the second-best mark at the position among players priced above $2,900, trailing only Dalton Schultz.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Michael Mayer ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
The Raiders are tanking their way toward the finish line. They’ll be without superstar TE Brock Bowers in their final game of the year, and he’ll be joined on the sidelines by Maxx Crosby and Geno Smith. It opens the door for Mayer to become a featured player in the passing attack. He was on the field for 89% of the team’s offensive snaps last week vs. the Giants, and he racked up a massive 37% target share. He ultimately finished with 17.9 PPR points, good for the fourth-best mark at the position in Week 17.
While Mayer isn’t the same level of prospect as Bowers, he still has plenty of talent. He was a second-round pick back in 2023, and he racked up tons of production in college at Notre Dame. Even though he’s the team’s No. 2 tight end, he might be their second-best pass-catcher overall.
Mayer stands out as undervalued this week in Sim Labs. He has the fifth-best optimal lineup rate on DraftKings, checking in at 8.1%. His projected ownership is 6.8%, and while that’s not a massive discrepancy, it is the second-largest gap at the position.
Grant Calcaterra ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel)
The Eagles are technically still alive for the No. 2 seed in the NFC, but they don’t control their own destiny. They would need a loss from the Bears, and since the Eagles have no control over that, they’re choosing to rest their starters instead. The team is expected to be without Jalen Hurts, their top three pass-catchers, and most of their starting offensive line, so it will give some less-heralded players the opportunity to step up.
Calcaterra will take over for Dallas Goedert at tight end. He has just seven catches across 14 games this season, but he’s done well filling in for Goedert in the past.
Calcaterra also draws an elite matchup this week vs. the Commanders. Washington ranks dead last in pass defense EPA for the year, and they’ve allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. The Eagles are still listed as four-point home favorites in this contest, and they’re implied for a respectable 21.5 points. Using Calcaterra allows you to load up at other positions without sacrificing too much at tight end, which could end up being the default lineup construction for GPPs.
Travis Kelce ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
If this is Kelce’s final season, it’s hard to imagine things going much worse. The Chiefs won’t even make it back to the playoffs this season, let alone another Super Bowl. His star quarterback is sidelined with a torn ACL, and he’ll catch passes from a seventh-round pick making his second career start in Week 18. It’s hard to feel too bad for a guy with one of the most popular podcasts on the planet who just got engaged to a literal billionaire, but it’s not exactly how things should’ve played out for one of the best tight ends in history.
Still, Kelce has been priced down to a point where he could be worth considering on FanDuel. His $5,200 salary comes with a 99% Bargain Rating, and he did see six targets for Chris Oladokun in Week 17. That game was against the Broncos, and this week’s contest vs. the Raiders is much more appealing. The Raiders are tanking hard for the No. 1 overall pick, and the Chiefs are actually listed as 5.5-point favorites in this matchup. Ultimately, if this is Kelce’s final game, it’s a solid spot for him to leave on a high note.
Pictured: Trey McBride
Photo Credit: Imagn
