The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Trevor Lawrence ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Lawrence has been on an absolute tear to end the season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, and he’s had at least 21.14 DraftKings points in four of them. He’s also displayed a big ceiling during that stretch, racking up 47.3 DraftKings points vs. the lowly Jets and 31.16 DraftKings points on the road vs. a tough Broncos’ defense. Overall, his recent hot streak has propelled him to QB4 in terms of fantasy points per game for the year.
The Jaguars still have plenty left to play for heading into the final week of the regular season. They need a win vs. the Titans to secure a division crown, and the No. 1 seed in the conference is still possible. The more likely scenario is the Jaguars finishing with the No. 3 seed, but they could fall as low as No. 7 with a loss.
That gives Lawrence and the team plenty of incentive to take care of business vs. the Titans. It’s a great matchup, with Tennessee ranking 25th in pass defense EPA. They’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position, and Lawrence ranks second among quarterbacks with a +3.0 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Jacksonville also leads the slate with a 30.5 implied team total, so Lawrence checks every box that you’re looking for at the position. He ranks first on DraftKings in projected Plus/Minus, while he dips to No. 3 on FanDuel.
Jaxson Dart ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
While the Giants’ fanbase may be focused on draft position, the team is still clearly trying to win games. They broke out the belt last week vs. the Raiders, racking up 34 points and 343 yards against the Raiders.
Dart put together his best fantasy performance since returning from a two-game injury absence. He finished with 25.08 DraftKings points, thanks primarily to his increased aggressiveness as a runner. He had just a 3% designed rush rate the week prior, but he was up to 12% vs. the Raiders. Dart ultimately ran in two more scores, bringing his tally to nine in 11 starts this season.
When Dart has his legs going, he can produce like a top-tier fantasy QB. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in all but two starts this season, and they were the two games where the Giants limited his rushing attempts. If they’re going to allow him to use his legs, he brings a really safe floor to the table.
Dart could also be a bit more productive with his arm than usual in Week 18. He’s taking on the Cowboys, who have been an elite matchup all season. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing QBs, and this game has a strong 49.5-point total.
Dart ranks second at quarterback in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 3 on DraftKings. His FanDuel price tag comes with an 81% Bargain Rating, which is the third-best mark at the position.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Caleb Williams ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
The Bears have officially clinched the NFC North and will be the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the NFC during the postseason. However, the difference between second and third in the conference could be significant. The third seed will have to deal with an NFC West opponent in the first round of the playoffs, while the No. 2 seed gets a matchup vs. the banged-up Packers. The Bears have already beaten the Packers once this season at home, so they have to believe they can do so again.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise that the team is going to play their starters in Week 18. Ben Johnson stated that the team wants to build positive momentum heading into the playoffs, and after losing last week to the 49ers, they’re looking to bounce back with a victory.
It sets up the potential for a strong day for Williams. Williams has had a strong sophomore season, tossing 25 touchdowns to just six interceptions. He’s also averaged 233 passing yards per game while chipping in 24.2 rushing yards per game and four scores on the ground. Add it all up, and he’s eighth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game.
The Bears draw a solid matchup vs. the Lions to close out the regular season. This game leads the slate with a 50.5-point total, and the Bears are listed as three-point home favorites. Their resulting 26.75 implied team total ranks fourth on the main slate.
Detroit has also surrendered plenty of fantasy points to opposing QBs. Williams owns a +3.7 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings, which is the fourth-best mark on the main slate. He trails only Lawrence and Dart in Sim Labs optimal lineup rate, making a strong tournament target.
Drake Maye ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
Maye has had a phenomenal sophomore season, and he could take home some hardware when all is said and done. He’s a slight underdog to Matthew Stafford in the MVP market, while the Patriots have the potential to compete for a Super Bowl. They’re currently in second place in the AFC standings, though they could jump up to first with a win in Week 18 coupled with a Broncos’ loss.
Maye has been extremely efficient as a passer this season. He leads the league in completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, and Quarterback Rating, which is a tremendous development in just his second season. He also brings decent rushing upside to the table, averaging 25.6 rushing yards per game with four total touchdowns. Add it all up, and only Josh Allen and Brock Purdy have averaged more fantasy points per game at quarterback.
The Patriots will wrap up the regular season with a home contest vs. the Dolphins, who are rolling out a pretty depleted squad at this point. New England’s 28.5 implied team total ranks second on the slate, and Maye took advantage of a similar matchup last week vs. the Jets. He racked up 32.44 DraftKings points in just three quarters of work, and he became the first QB in NFL history to complete at least 90% of his passes with 250 yards and five touchdowns in the same game. He’ll look to put an exclamation point on his season with another strong showing vs. the Dolphins, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
Bo Nix ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
The Broncos are expected to take care of business this week vs. the Chargers, who will be resting most of their key players. They’re listed as 13.5-point home favorites, and winning vs. Los Angeles means the AFC playoffs would run through Denver.
The Chargers have been a strong defensive team all season, but they will undoubtedly be weaker than usual on this slate. Derwin James and Khalil Mack sat out practice on Friday and are expected to rest, while they also have three cornerbacks who look questionable to suit up. It makes Nix much more appealing than he normally would be in this matchup.
Nix also stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel. His $7,200 salary comes with an 86% Bargain Rating, which is tied for the best mark at the position. Nix has been up and down from a fantasy perspective this season, but he enters this contest on a hot streak. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, including a game with more than 32 DraftKings points at home vs. the Packers.
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Tyler Shough ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Shough has come out of nowhere to become one of the favorites for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He didn’t take over as the Saints’ starting quarterback until Week 9, but he has looked the part of an NFL QB in recent weeks. He’s propelled the team to four straight wins, and he’s thrown for at least 300 yards in back-to-back games. The fact that he’s doing this for an offense that really only has two capable pass catchers is extremely impressive, and it should solidify his standing as the team’s quarterback of the future.
Shough stands out as one of the most undervalued passers this week in Sim Labs. He has the fourth-highest DraftKings optimal lineup rate at the position, checking in at roughly 7.5%. His projected ownership is closer to 4.5%, which is one of the largest discrepancies at the position. His DraftKings salary also carries a 97% Bargain Rating, tied for the best mark at the position.
Shough has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s scored at least 20.12 DraftKings points in three of his past four. While he hasn’t shown a significant ceiling over that period, his salary hasn’t been adjusted to reflect his increased production.
Jared Goff ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
The Lions are limping toward the finish line, but Goff is another QB who stands out as undervalued in Sim Labs. While he’s coming off a poor showing on Christmas vs. the Vikings, Goff has had a bit of extra time to prepare for this week’s matchup vs. the Bears. He also had at least 28.52 DraftKings points in his two previous outings, and he finished as a top-six scorer at the position on both occasions.
Goff absolutely tormented the Bears in their first meeting this season. He racked up a season-high 36.96 DraftKings points, completing 23 of 28 passes for 334 yards and five touchdowns. That game did take place in Detroit – where Goff has historically been much better than he has on the road – but the Bears defense can definitely be exploited once again. We saw the 49ers do it against Chicago last week, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
This game stands out as one of the most likely shootouts in Week 18, and Goff has proven that he has a strong ceiling for his price tag. Even though they have nothing to play for, expect Dan Campbell to have his guys ready to end the season strong.
Joe Burrow ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
Speaking of ending the season strong, it’s hard to play much better than the Bengals’ offense has recently. They’ve scored 37 and 45 points in their past two outings, albeit against the lowly Dolphins and Cardinals.
This week’s matchup against the Browns does represent a step up in weight class, but Cleveland hasn’t been as dominant on the road this season. The Bengals are listed as 7.5-point home favorites, and their 26.0 implied team total ranks sixth on the main slate.
Burrow is still one of the league’s best quarterbacks, and he has two high-end pass-catchers at his disposal. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, with a dismal showing vs. the Ravens standing out as the lone outlier. He’s thrown for more than 300 yards in two straight, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again on Sunday. The Bengals’ shaky offensive line will have to contend with Myles Garrett, but as long as they can keep him from wrecking the game, Burrow should be able to make some throws downfield.
Pictured: Trevor Lawrence
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
