The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen at Cleveland Browns – $7,200 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Of the 22 teams in the player pool this week, the Bills are one of a few teams that stand out as excellent stacks to build around. Josh Allen has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections, as highlighted above. In this post, we’ll lean into that aggregate as a strong, balanced approach to the slate.
Throughout the season, Allen has shown off an extremely high ceiling, especially at home. Last week, on the road in New England, he finished with 24.5 DraftKings points, throwing three touchdowns for the second straight game. He is up to 25 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing touchdowns on the year, and his dual-threat production is what buoys him to the top of the rankings most weeks.
He has at least 23 DraftKings points in six of his eight games since the Bills’ bye week and has helped Buffalo go 6-2 over that span.
This week, he’ll be on the road in a tough matchup against the Browns and Myles Garrett. While the Browns’ offense has struggled this season, the defense has been solid, allowing only the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game.
Even in that matchup, though, Allen’s potential is enough to give him both a high ceiling and a high floor. There are a few other nice options in better matchups like Bo Nix and Justin Herbert, but ultimately, Jallen takes the top spot in the ceiling projections, and his output has been consistent and strong enough to pay up to his price point, which is the highest of all QBs this week.
Top Value: C.J. Stroud vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $5,500 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
On both sites, Stroud has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks in the three-way aggregate projections. Stroud and the Texans are rolling as they head to Las Vegas to take on the struggling Raiders.
Stroud missed three games with a concussion, and Davis Mills stepped in and went 3-0. Stroud has gone 3-0 since returning, leading the team to wins over the Colts, Chiefs and Cardinals. Last week was his best fantasy game of the stretch, as he completed 22 of 29 passes for 260 yards and three touchdowns, and tacked on 10 rushing yards on six carries.
Stroud has 15 touchdowns and is averaging just over 220 passing yards per game. He has three games with over 23 DraftKings points in his last seven contests, so even though he’s not as “sure fire” as Allnand the other elite options, he is a good value pivot because of his upside.
Last week, Stroud lost rookie running back Woody Marks to injury, and Marks hasn’t been able to return to practice yet. Nick Chubb and Jawhar Jordan will likely split the time if Marks is out, but a less effective running game could lead to more time and opportunities for Stroud against the Raiders, especially in the red zone.
The Raiders have allowed 26 QB touchdowns in 14 games this season and given up multiple passing scores in three of the last five weeks.
Stroud has thrown for 200+ yards in nine straight games, not counting the game he left early with a concussion. If he is able to add in multiple touchdown tosses again this week, he should be a great value play to consider.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
The Lions have the highest implied team total on Sunday’s slate, and their stars are projected to step up with big-time production against Pittsburgh. Gibbs has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all running backs, and he also has the top Plus/Minus projection on both sites since he is expected to far outproduce his salary.
Gibbs had a disappointing total last week against the Rams, finishing with only 9.8 DraftKings points. He has been alternating big games with letdowns, and he should be able to bounce back again this week. He had over 22 DraftKings points in four of his last five games before last Sunday’s struggles. This season, he has still produced over 1,500 combined yards and 16 touchdowns in 14 games.
He has averaged 27.1 DraftKings points per game at home in 2025, and he should be able to find some space against the Steelers, who have allowed 102.6 rushing yards and 32.1 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this season.
Gibbs at home should be a top play in a bounce-back spot this week, so build around the superstar if you can find a way to make his price work under your salary cap.
Top Value: R.J. Harvey vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Rookie R.J. Harvey continues to be a strong value consideration this week, as he fills in for J.K. Dobbins (foot), who is expected to miss the rest of the regular season. Harvey has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all running backs on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel, behind only Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, both of whom are much more expensive than Harvey is.
Harvey’s production has been solid while taking on a larger workload, but his salary has remained low. In his three games since the team’s bye week, he has scored four rushing touchdowns and totaled 175 rushing yards and 52 receiving yards. He finished with 21.2, 22.0 and 11.5 DraftKings points in those three games, and he even posted solid numbers last week against the Packers’ tough defense. He did have a fumble in that game and also left with a rib injury, but he still ended up with a career-high 19 carries while playing 68% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Coming into this week’s big home game against the Jaguars, Harvey clearly remains the top option in the backfield rotation if he’s healthy. He practiced fully this week, so the injury to his ribs doesn’t look likely to hold him back.
What might make it tough for him this week, though, is that he’s in a tough matchup against the Jaguars, who have allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to running backs and are allowing a league-low 86.4 rushing yards per contest. However, they have given up three running back touchdowns in their last four games.
Most of Harvey’s production comes on touchdowns, and he typically gets involved as a receiver as well. He had multiple catches in five straight games before not having even one catch against Green Bay. to get as involved as a receiver this week, but he should be able to be more involved in the passing game this week as the Broncos host the Jaguars.
If he gets a few catches and gets into the end zone again, Harvey will be an excellent value at this salary, and he has both a high floor and a high ceiling since it’s clear he’s the top option in Denver’s run game.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Pittsburgh Steelers- $8,400 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Last week, St. Brown and Puka Nacua both had massive games in their head-to-head matchup in Los Angeles. Nacua already followed his performance up with another huge game on Thursday Night Football, and St. Brown is set to do the same on Sunday, according to the aggregate projections.
St. Brown has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both sites, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers. He’s more of a bargain on FanDuel, but his projections are high enough that he can be played confidently on either site.
ARSB finished last week with 13 catches on 18 targets for 164 yards, two touchdowns, and 44.4 DraftKings points. He has over 30 DraftKings points in three of his games this season, and he has at least 15 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games, not counting the game he left injured.
St. Brown was clearly past the ankle issue last week, and he typically excels at home, where he’s averaging 22.2 DraftKings points in his seven games this season. The Steelers should be a favorable matchup for him this week, since they have allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to receivers in the NFL, giving up 12 touchdowns and an average of over 160 yards per game to receivers this season.
If the Lions are going to continue their late playoff push, they’ll continue to lean heavily on St. Brown, who can be one of the top receivers on the board every week while he’s getting such heavy volume.
Top Value: Courtland Sutton vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel
Value at receiver can be a little tricky to nail down until the gameday inactives come out and we get a clear idea of who will be stepping in to do more work as a bargain play. While he isn’t an extremely cheap bargain, Sutton does have a top-10 Plus/Minus projection on both sites, and he should be very involved as his team’s top receiver this week. On a lower level than St. Brown, but similarly, his volume makes him a little safer but also gives him an extremely high ceiling.
Sutton has drawn double-digit targets from Bo Nix in each of the last two weeks and has posted good games as a result against the Raiders and Packers. He has at least five catches and 60 yards in three straight games and is coming off his second 100-yard game of the season. He caught seven of his 10 targets for 113 yards against Green Bay and scored his sixth touchdown of the season as well, to finish with an impressive 27.3 fantasy points.
On Sunday against the Jaguars, Sutton has that kind of ceiling once again, especially if the Broncos air it out a little bit to keep up with the Jags and struggle in the run game (as discussed above). Jacksonville has allowed 13 receiver touchdowns this season, but only three receiver touchdowns in the last seven weeks. Sutton still makes sense since they have given up some big yardage games, but Harvey seems the more likely option to get into the end zone.
Sutton is only 114 yards away from 1,000 yards for the season, and he could get to that milestone with another big game this week. Now that he seems locked into such a large target share, he’s a strong starting option this week with both a high ceiling and a high floor against Jacksonville.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Houston Texans – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
McBride continues to post outstanding numbers every week and remains the top option at the position by a wide margin. If you are looking for the highest ceiling, it clearly comes from McBride, who continues to put together what could end up being a record-breaking season. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel again this week, and he also has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at tight end on FanDuel.
McBride hauled in a season-high 12 catches last week for 134 yards and two touchdowns. He finished with over 40 fantasy points for the first time this season, and he has now produced over 22 DraftKings points in four of his last six games.
With Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) possibly coming back this week, McBride could get some help, but he should still be able to produce huge numbers against the Falcons, since Jacoby Brissett continues to give him so many targets and opportunities to make plays.
This season, McBride has at least five catches in every game and is up to 105 catches for 1,071 yards and 10 touchdowns. Even though the Falcons have done a good job in general against tight ends, McBride has been consistent enough to be matchup-proof.
Top Value: Kyle Pitts Sr at Arizona Cardinals – $5,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
On the other side of the Arizona-Atlanta matchup, Pitts has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends this week. He’s coming off a monster week last week against the Bucs, and he should remain heavily involved even if Drake London (knee) returns from his PCL Sprain. Pitts also popped up on the injury report as limited with a knee injury on Thursday, so be sure to check the injury report before locking in any Falcons.
If he plays, though, Pitts will have a very high ceiling since he has a massive total of 30 targets in the last three weeks, catching 24 passes for 338 yards in just those three games. Last week, he posted a huge 48.6 DraftKings points on 11 catches for 166 yards and three scores on Thursday Night Football, showing how high his ceiling can be if he stays locked in with Kirk Cousins.
Cousins and Pitts will be in a good spot against the Cardinals, who have been a top-10 matchup for tight ends all season. Tight ends have scored four touchdowns against Arizona in the last five weeks, while averaging 85.8 receiving yards per game over that stretch.
With Pitts trending up and the Cardinals a great matchup, he’s a strong value play to consider as long as his knee issue isn’t serious enough to keep him on the sidelines.
Pictured: Josh Allen
Photo Credit: Imagn
