Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Woody Marks ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Week 15 features one of the biggest main slates of the entire season, so there are a bunch of viable options to choose from in all formats. That said, Marks stands out as the clear top value at the position. He leads all RBs in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Marks has taken over as the Texans’ unquestioned No. 1 RB in recent weeks. Since Week 10, he’s played on 72% of the team’s offensive snaps and handled 73% of the carries. He hasn’t been particularly involved as a pass-catcher in those contests – he has just a 5% target share – but he’s handled most of the short- and long-yardage opportunities. He was up to an 89% snap share and 87% carry share last week, so his lead in the Texans’ backfield only continues to grow.
Part of the reason for Marks’ expanded role last week was that Nick Chubb exited early due to an injury. He missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday before getting in a limited session on Friday, and he’s officially questionable to suit up vs. the Cardinals. Marks should see the majority of the work regardless, but Chubb being out certainly wouldn’t hurt his outlook.
The matchup is also extremely appealing. Arizona has been dismal defensively down the stretch, ranking 28th in EPA per play defensively since Week 10. They just allowed 530 yards to the Rams last week, including 249 yards on the ground, and they’ve surrendered more than 40 points in three of their past five games.
Add it all up, and Marks checks in as underpriced across the industry. He’s a great starting point for cash games.
Christian McCaffrey ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
While many of the usual top studs in fantasy have struggled at times this season, McCaffrey has rolled along pretty smoothly. He hasn’t displayed his usual efficiency as a runner, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, but he’s made up for it with the best volume in the league. He leads the league with a whopping 322 touches, and he’s found the end zone 13 times.
Of course, McCaffrey’s calling card is his work in the passing game. No running back in football can touch him in that department. He’s racked up a 25% target share, and no other player is above 21%. He’s responded with 6.5 receptions and 62.0 receiving yards per game, giving him an average of 12.7 PPR points before factoring in any of his rushing or scoring stats. It’s a big reason why he leads the position in PPR points per game.
McCaffrey is coming off a rare poor showing last week, but that was against the Browns’ elite defense. This week should be significantly easier. He’s taking on the Titans, who are 27th in rush defense EPA. The 49ers are also listed as massive 12.5-point favorites, and their 28.5 implied team total ranks second on the slate.
McCaffrey is also priced at a discount at $9,000 on DraftKings. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.82 with a comparable salary, and that figure jumps to +5.71 as a member of the 49ers (per the Trends tool). Add in games where he’s a double-digit favorite, and he’s averaged 30.36 DraftKings points and a +9.95 Plus/Minus.
He owns the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models, so he’s the clear-cut top stud to consider at the position.
Saquon Barkley ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Is Barkley officially back? That remains to be seen, but he’s coming off a solid showing vs. the Chargers last week. He racked up 122 rushing yards and a touchdown, good for 21.2 DraftKings points. That was his second-highest-scoring performance of the season, trailing only his 36.4 DraftKings points vs. the Giants in Week 8.
That said, the vast majority of his production came from one touch. He had a 52-yard touchdown scamper, so his other 19 carries amounted to just 70 yards. He also failed to haul in either of his two targets, so there were still plenty of negatives in that matchup.
While that’s definitely a concern, you can play that game with basically any player. Big plays are a part of Barkley’s skill set, and he definitely has the potential for more of them vs. the Raiders. They haven’t been a terrible defense this season, but they’ve still allowed the 11th-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. The Eagles are listed as 12.5-point favorites in this contest, so at a minimum, Barkley should get plenty of opportunities to hunt for another big play.
Barkley is down to just $7,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating. That has historically been too cheap a price tag for him. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.84 with a comparable figure, and most of those games came playing for a dismal Giants squad. Perhaps Barkley isn’t the same player anymore, but he still ranks second at the position in projected Plus/Minus.
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Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
Gibbs has arguably become the best running back in fantasy. He doesn’t have quite the same impact as a receiver as McCaffrey, but he has become an absolute weapon on the ground. He’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season, and he’s racked up 16 total touchdowns. Gibbs has three three-score games in his past five, and he’s finished as the top overall RB in PPR scoring in two of the past three weeks.
Gibbs has spent most of the year in a timeshare with David Montgomery, and Montgomery is still going to siphon off some touches here and there. However, the split has been weighed far more heavily in Gibbs’ favor in recent weeks. He’s been on the field for 72% of the team’s snaps over their past four outings, and he’s handled 67% of their carries over that stretch. His target share has also jumped to 25% in those contests, so he’s had a true bell-cow role.
If Gibbs can maintain that level of usage, he could easily usurp McCaffrey for the top RB spot in fantasy. A matchup vs. the Bills in Week 15 will only help. This game has the top total of the week at 55 points, and Buffalo has surrendered plenty of production to opposing RBs this season. They’re 31st in the league in rush defense EPA, so Gibbs could run wild in this spot.
Derrick Henry ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
While Gibbs and McCaffrey are the modern versions of a stud runner, Henry is an old-school throwback. He provides almost nothing as a pass-catcher, doing most of his damage on the ground instead. That gives him a lower floor and ceiling than his contemporary counterparts.
However, after a slow start to the year, Henry has gotten rolling of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games, and he draws one of the best possible matchups this week vs. the Bengals. Cincinnati has hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, with no team allowing more to the position. Henry had 17.4 DraftKings points vs. the Bengals two weeks ago, despite playing just 24 snaps in a blowout loss.
If this week’s game is more competitive, Henry has the potential for a much bigger performance. He has the third-highest DraftKings optimal lineup rate at running back in Sim Labs, and he’s second at the position on FanDuel.
Travis Etienne ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
There are a handful of big favorites this week, but none are quite as big as the Jaguars. They’re favored by nearly two touchdowns at home vs. the Jets, who will be starting undrafted rookie Brady Cook at quarterback. The Jaguars have already been rolling recently, so there’s no reason to expect much different in Week 15.
Etienne has been the lead back in a committee this season, but he was a bit more than that last week. He had 71% of the snaps and 74% of the carries, while Bhayshul Tuten was banished to the bench after a couple of fumbles. It’s possible that both guys get plenty of work in this matchup, but Etienne should be the top dog.
The Jets’ defense has also been shredded on the ground in recent weeks. The Dolphins lit them up for 239 rushing yards last week, despite De’Von Achane exiting the game early. Atlanta got them for 167 yards the week prior. Overall, Etienne owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.8, which is one of the best marks on the slate. He’s underpriced across the industry in this contest.
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Quinshon Judkins ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
Judkins really couldn’t get anything going last week as a runner, finishing with just 14 carries for 26 yards. However, he still handled 82% of the team’s rushing attempts, and he’s dominated in that area ever since signing his rookie contract. He owns a 78% carry share since Week 3, and only Jonthan Taylor has had a higher mark over that time frame.
That kind of workload always makes Judkins an interesting option for tournaments. He’s projected for single-digit ownership this week vs. the Bears, which is not a particularly intimidating matchup. They rank 23rd in rush defense EPA for the year, and they’ve allowed at least 115 rushing yards to five of their past seven opponents. The Browns are listed as 7.5-point road underdogs, but if the game remains more competitive than expected, Judkins could deliver a solid performance.
Kenneth Walker ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
The Seahawks are another team that is expected to handle business pretty convincingly on Sunday. They’re 13.5-point favorites vs. the Colts, who are expected to start 44-year-old Philip Rivers at quarterback. It will be his first NFL game since 2020, so he could be a disaster against the Seahawks’ outstanding defense.
Walker is the Seahawks’ most talented running back, though his workload isn’t always as strong as fantasy players would hope. He’s handled just 47% of the team’s carries this season, and he’s been below that mark each of the past two weeks.
Walker likely won’t get much more than that vs. the Colts, but there’s a chance the team runs the ball at a massive frequency if they build a big lead. That could give him enough opportunities to potentially return value. Walker is also a big-play threat, so he only needs one carry to potentially rip off a long touchdown.
Chuba Hubbard ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
The Panthers are coming off a bye last week, but Hubbard re-established himself in the Panthers’ RB pecking order in their last game. Rico Dowdle took over as the team’s starter in Week 9, and Hubbard was pretty much invisible in the team’s next four games. However, he jumped back up to a 58% snap share and 49% carry share in Week 13, and he also racked up an 11% target share. He ultimately finished with more than 20 PPR points and helped the team pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year over the Rams.
After that performance, it’s hard to imagine Hubbard not seeing a bigger piece of the pie moving forward. He’s still priced like a clear backup at $4,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a 92% Bargain Rating. The Panthers are also slim road favorites vs. the Saints, and they could be out for revenge after an embarrassing home loss to them earlier this season.
Chase Brown ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Brown got off to a dreadful start this season, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games. He struggled to get anything going vs. the Bills last week, but he made up for it by getting in the paint twice. He’s ultimately averaged 19.2 PPR points per game since Week 8, which is the fifth-best mark at the position over that time frame. Brown has finished as a top-13 scorer in each of those outings, and he’s had three finishes as RB6 or better.
Brown got to 18.3 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Ravens this season, and he did that without the benefit of a touchdown. If he can add a score to his ledger in the rematch, he has the potential to continue his hot streak.
Pictured: Saquon Barkley
Photo Credit: Imagn
