The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Trevor Lawrence ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
The Jaguars have racked up four straight wins, which has pushed them to the top of the AFC South standings. Lawrence hasn’t been a huge part of their success this season, as he’s putting together another mediocre statistical campaign. In fact, his average of 6.46 adjusted yards per attempt is the second-worst mark of his career.
However, Lawrence has experienced an uptick in production of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s racked up more than 21 DraftKings points in two of them. He’s tossed seven total touchdowns over those games, and he’s averaged 8.44 adjusted yards per attempt.
Lawrence also gives you just a smidge of rushing upside. He has five rushing scores this season, and he’s averaged just under 20 yards per game. He’s also been a bit higher in that department of late, averaging more than 24 rushing yards per game from Week 5 on.
The big selling point for Lawrence this week is his matchup vs. the Jets. They’re merely 28th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve only gotten worse since trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. The Jaguars are currently implied for 27.5 points in this matchup, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate.
Lawrence ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and he’s No. 2 on DraftKings. He’s simply too cheap in this matchup given his recent production.
Jaxson Dart ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Dart is a little bit cheaper than Lawrence on DraftKings, while he’s slightly more expensive on FanDuel. It’s hard to justify a cheaper price tag for Dart with how these guys have played this season. After taking over as the Giants’ starting QB in Week 4, Dart averaged 23.3 DraftKings points over his first seven starts. That was the third-highest mark in the league, trailing only Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford.
Dart missed the team’s next two games with a concussion, and he returned to the lineup in Week 13. That was in a tough matchup vs. the Patriots, and Dart didn’t look quite like himself. He turned in his worst game as a pro for fantasy purposes, finishing with just 13.56 DraftKings points.
Dart was off for the Giants’ bye in Week 14, so hopefully, he’ll be back with a vengeance vs. the Commanders. If the Giants let him off the leash, he could have a field day. The Commanders rank dead last in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
The key question is how aggressive Dart will be as a runner going forward. He had a designed rush rate of 16% in his first seven starts, but he didn’t have a single designed rush in his first game back. He still finished with four scrambles for 20 yards, but a lack of designed carries around the goal line would tank his fantasy value.
Ultimately, Lawrence is probably the “safer” option between these two passers, while Dart offers a bit more upside. If he’s back to his old ways vs. the Commanders, he has the potential for a huge game.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
Lamar Jackson ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Watching Jackson struggle since returning from injury has been tough. He had become one of the best players in football, but he’s looked like a shell of himself in recent games. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five outings, including three games with single-digit fantasy points.
Jackson still didn’t look quite like himself last week, but he at least took a step forward for fantasy purposes. He had seven carries, which he converted into 43 yards and a touchdown. He ultimately finished with 22.06 DraftKings points, which made him the seventh-highest scorer at the position.
Jackson gets a matchup vs. the Bengals in Week 15, and he should be looking for some revenge. They embarrassed Jackson and the Ravens on Thanksgiving, and it’s a spot where Jackson could feast. The Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers this season, giving Jackson an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0. Before their most recent matchup, Jackson scored at least 22.88 DraftKings points in five of their previous six meetings (per the Trends tool).
Jackson is priced at a significant discount, which makes sense with how he’s performed of late. That said, he has a proven track record of fantasy success. There’s no denying his upside in this spot, and he’s expected to be undervalued in tournaments.
C.J. Stroud ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
The Texans have completely turned their season around. They’ve won five straight games, putting themselves in a great position to make it back to the postseason. They’ve leaned on their excellent defense, which has been one of the best units in the league this year.
Three of those wins came with Stroud on the sidelines, and he’s been mediocre from a fantasy standpoint since returning. He had just 10.04 DraftKings points vs. the Colts two weeks ago, and he followed that up with 12.62 DraftKings points last week.
That said, the Texans have far more offensive upside than usual in Week 15. They’re taking on the Cardinals, who were just absolutely torched by the Rams last week. They surrendered 530 yards and 45 points, their third time allowing 40+ in their past five games.
The Texans are currently implied for 26 points in this matchup, making Stroud an affordable option across the industry. He has the second-highest DraftKings optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs, and he’s No. 3 on FanDuel.
Brock Purdy ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Purdy has spent most of the season on the sidelines, but he’s managed to suit up in the team’s past three games. Unfortunately, he hasn’t really been able to get rolling. He did manage to return value in a blowout win over the Cardinals, but he followed that up with subpar showings against the Panthers and Browns.
The good news is that those teams have been extremely tough on defense all year. His last game came on the road, and it’s never easy for a West Coast team to travel East. Purdy will be back at home this week in a cupcake matchup vs. the Titans. They rank 29th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
The 49ers’ 28.5 implied team total ranks second on the slate, so this could be a clear breakout spot for Purdy. He put up huge numbers in this system a few years ago, and the team should be as healthy as they’ve been all season following their Week 14 bye.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Matthew Stafford ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Stafford continues to put up huge numbers. After a brief speed bump in Carolina two weeks ago, Stafford racked up 281 yards and three touchdowns in a demolition of the Cardinals in Week 14. He’s up to 35 touchdown passes for the year to go along with a microscopic four interceptions, and he’s back to being the MVP favorite.
There’s no reason to expect much different from Stafford in Week 15. The Rams are implied for more than 30 points in a potential shootout vs. the Lions. Stafford ultimately owns the top ceiling projection at the position, which is extremely rare for a non-rushing QB. The total on this game sits at a whopping 55.0 points, so there could be plenty of value on both sides.
Stafford is showing up as undervalued across the industry in Sim Labs. He has the largest discrepancy between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate on FanDuel, where his $8,300 salary comes with an 81% Bargain Rating. He’s third in that metric on DraftKings, so he’s viable on that site as well.
Joe Burrow ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
The Bengals and Ravens didn’t live up to the billing in Week 13, but it’s possible that the rematch is closer to what we saw last year. These two teams played two absolute thrillers, with tons of fantasy production on both sides. Burrow had 36.72 and 37.78 DraftKings points in those contests, so fantasy players will be hoping for a repeat this time around.
Burrow was one of the best QBs in fantasy last season, and he appeared to shake off the rust last week vs. the Bills. He finished with more than 25 DraftKings points, racking up 284 passing yards and four TDs.
Burrow is currently projected for less than 5% ownership across the industry, and the idea of getting Burrow at that figure is pretty appealing
Josh Allen ($7,500 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)
Allen went full superhero mode last week vs. the Bengals. He racked up 251 yards and three touchdowns through the air, and he added another 78 yards and a score on the ground. He finished with 37.84 DraftKings points, his third game with at least that many so far this season.
When Allen plays like he did last week, almost no one in football can match his upside. He’ll have his work cut out for him this week vs. the Patriots, but it’s a game with massive implications. The Bills need to beat New England to have any shot at the AFC East crown and No. 1 seed in the playoffs. If the Bills are looking to accomplish those feats, they’re going to need another massive game from their stud QB.
Allen is the most expensive QB on this slate, and most people will shy away from him in this matchup. Any time the field isn’t on Allen, getting some exposure is pretty reasonable.
Pictured: Trevor Lawrence
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
