The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $7,700 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
On Sunday’s 11-game main slate, Josh Allen has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections, as highlighted above. In this post, we’ll lean into that aggregate as a strong, balanced approach to the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Since he’s in such a favorable matchup for QBs against the Bengals this week, Allen is projected to end up one of the best values on the slate at quarterback, even though he comes at a hefty salary. He has come in under salary-based expectations the last two weeks, posting 10.1 DraftKings points against Houston and 17.7 DraftKings points against the Steelers last week, but he wrecked the Buccaneers and broke the slate the week before those down games with 47.7 DraftKings points.
His big game against the Bucs was his most recent home game, and he’s averaging 31.4 DraftKings points per game in his six home games, compared to just 17.4 DraftKings points in his six away games.
He’s lined up for a great matchup in this home game as well. The Bengals have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, allowing 23 passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in 12 games, along with an average of 265 passing yards per contest.
This game has the highest over/under on Sunday’s slate, and if it turns into a high-scoring contest, Allen’s dual-threat ability gives him a high enough ceiling to pay up and build around the superstar QB this week.
Top Value: Jacoby Brissett vs. Los Angeles Rams – $5,700 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
Brissett has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks in the three-way aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has a tough matchup against the Rams, but he has been getting so much volume that he is projected to overcome that matchup and still return value.
Since taking over as the starter, Brissett has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his seven games. He has attempted an average of 42.3 passes per game and averaged 312.6 passing yards, while throwing 13 touchdowns and adding one rushing score.
His volume has allowed him to be extremely consistent, producing between 20.7 and 26.9 DraftKings points in every game. He has thrown exactly two touchdowns in six of those seven games and has turned in strong numbers despite going just 1-6 in the games he has started.
The Cardinals’ run game is still struggling with Trey Benson (knee) on IR and not practicing yet, so Brissett will likely have to air it out again this week against the Rams. With so many pass attempts, he’ll likely have good enough totals to be a solid value, especially if he plays from behind, as has become the team’s typical game script.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: De’Von Achane at New York Jets – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Of the top running backs, Achane and Jonathan Taylor are 1-2 in most categories this week, with Achane on top of the median projections but Taylor providing the highest ceiling and floor projections on this slate. Since Achane is a little cheaper and in a better matchup, he’s my preferred pay-up running back this week, although both options are obviously excellent and bring very high ceilings.
Achane has exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 of his 12 games this season, totaling 1,034 rushing yards and 370 receiving yards, along with 10 total touchdowns. He has produced 86.2 rushing yards, 30.8 receiving yards, and 22.2 DraftKings points per contest.
The Dolphins have won four of their last five games coming into this week’s road divisional game against the Jets and will rely heavily on Achane once again to help them avoid a slip-up and stay in the playoff race. Achane has fueled the recent surge with three straight games of 120 or more rushing yards and over 22 DraftKings points in each game.
Earlier this season, Achane had 20 carries for 99 yards and one catch for two yards, along with a rushing touchdown in the first matchup between these teams back in Week 4. Since then, though, the Jets have traded away key parts of their defense and have struggled to stop the run. Last week, they allowed 162 rushing yards and 86 receiving yards with two touchdowns to the Falcons’ running backs and have allowed seven running back touchdowns in the last three weeks.
Achane is in a smash spot and is getting all the work he can handle, so he’s set up for another big game in Week 14.
Top Value: RJ Harvey at Las Vegas Raiders – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Harvey has taken over as the Broncos’ primary running back for the past two games, and even though it’s still a timeshare, he’s getting enough work to be a solid value in this favorable matchup against the Raiders this week. He has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel.
The Broncos drafted Harvey in the second round, and he was playing a complementary role behind J.K. Dobbins (foot) before the veteran was placed on IR. In his two games since then, Harvay played 61% of snaps against the Chiefs and 47% of snaps against the Commanders.
He had trouble in the tough matchup against Kansas City with only 8.0 DraftKings points, but he was much better on Sunday Night Football last week, adding a pair of rushing touchdowns to go with his 35 rushing yards on 13 carries. He added three more catches for 27 yards to finish with 21.1 DraftKings points after he scored the game-winning touchdown in overtime.
This week, he has a favorable matchup against the Raiders and should get plenty of work if the Broncos play from ahead.
The rookie has shown a good ceiling and ability to get into the end zone with eight scores this season, even though his per-carry numbers have been lackluster. While he is still sharing work with Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie, he should keep getting enough work to be a solid value.
He has double-digit carries in each of his two games without Dobbins, and if he gets that much work against the Raiders in Week 14, he should be a very solid value play at running back.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaxson Smith-Njigba at Atlanta Falcons – $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,800 on FanDuel
Jaxson Smith-Njigba had a very rare down week last week with two catches for 23 yards against the Vikings. His Seahawks still stormed to the win, though, and the projections have him lined up for a big bounce-back this week against the Falcons. He has the top median and ceiling projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 14.
Smith-Njigba had been on a roll before his quiet week last week, exceeding his lofty salary-based expectations 10 times on FanDuel and nine times on DraftKings. His 4.3 DraftKings points last week snapped a string of seven straight games with over 20 DraftKings points in every matchup, while averaging 28.8 DraftKings points per contest over that stretch.
He should be in a solid matchup to get back on track in Atlanta, where the Falcons’ defense started the season strong but has struggled lately. Last week, Adonai Mitchell lit them up for over 100 yards and a touchdown, and they have allowed nine wide receiver touchdowns in their last six games.
JSN should be able to get back on track this week, so don’t be afraid to use him as a pay-up centerpiece at receiver if you can find the value to get him in under your salary cap. Last week’s game will probably just look like a blip on the radar when looking back at his incredible numbers this season, which he should be able to pick back up this week.
Top Value: Michael Wilson vs. Los Angeles Rams – $5,600 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel
There are some major salary disparities between DraftKings and FanDuel for a few key receivers this week. Be sure to check the Bargain Rating and customize your lineup to the site you’re playing on, since there is a major difference this week. Wilson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the board on FanDuel, where he has a 99% Bargain Rating.
Wilson is expected to step in again as the Cardinals’ top receiver since Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) hasn’t practiced after suffering a heel injury in Week 13, which was his first game back after missing two games with a concussion.
In the two games that Harrison missed, Wilson showed off a great connection with Brissett. He had 15 catches on 18 targets for 185 yards and 36.5 DraftKings points against the 49ers in Week 11 and followed that up with 10 catches on 15 targets for 118 yards and 24.8 DraftKings points against the Jaguars in Week 12. He put up those two massive totals without even finding the end zone.
Last week, in Harrison’s return, Wilson cooled off to just three catches for 36 yards but still did draw seven targets in the Cardinals’ high-volume passing attack. Wilson should get much more work this week if Harrison is out, and he is a great value stack with Brissett on FanDuel.
On DraftKings, his salary is still a little more elevated, leaving Adonai Mitchell of the Jets with the best Plus/Minus projection on the board. I covered Mitchell in my early look at this week’s slate, and he still projects as one of the best value receivers on DraftKings, where he has an 86% Bargain Rating. Devaughn Vele and Luther Burden III are two other value plays that stand out on DraftKings, while they have been priced up on FanDuel.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. Los Angeles Rams – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
The Cardinals’ high-volume passing game continues to provide plenty of opportunities for McBride to establish himself as the elite of the elite at tight end. He remains the most expensive TE on the slate but still brings enough upside to consider. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel by a wide margin, and he has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at tight end on FanDuel.
In each of his seven games since Jacoby Brissett took over at QB, McBride has exceeded salary-based expectations. He has hit that mark in 11 of his 12 games on FanDuel overall this season, even though his salary is always high.
Last week against the Bucs, McBride had eight catches for 82 yards and a touchdown, for 22.2 DraftKings points. He has put up over 15 DraftKings points in all seven of Brissett’s starts, with over 29 DraftKings points in three of those games.
He has at least eight catches in four straight games and six of his last seven, and that volume could even increase with Harrison out. McBride has both a high floor and a high ceiling since he’s getting so much work, even though the Rams are definitely not an easy matchup.
Top Value: Kyle Pitts Sr. vs. Seattle Seahawks – $4,200 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
Pitts has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all tight ends in the aggregate projections on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel, behind only McBride and Brock Bowers. Pitts isn’t a bargain play, but he has been a good value from his mid-range price point since he has been getting lots of work with Drake London (knee) unavailable for the last two weeks. London is dealing with a PCL sprain and hasn’t been able to return to practice, making it likely that Pitts will get more work again this week.
Last week, Kirk Cousins targeted Pitts eight times, and the veteran hauled in seven catches for 82 yards. He led the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards. He has multiple catches in each of his 12 games, averaging 9.7 DraftKings points per contest. Even though Pitts still only has one touchdown, his high usage gives him upside this week.
He’s also in a great matchup for tight ends against the Seahawks, since Seattle has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Tight ends have scored five touchdowns against Seattle this year while averaging 70.25 yards per contest.
If you want to go cheaper and consider bargain value plays at the position, AJ Barner stands out on DraftKings, and Mason Taylor makes sense on FanDuel.
Pictured: Josh Allen
Photo Credit: Imagn
