The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Josh Allen ($7,700 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
Paying up for a stud passer in cash games is always difficult. It means you probably have to sacrifice a stud at either receiver or running back, which is a compromise that most DFS players are not willing to make.
That said, it could be worth making an exception for Allen in Week 14. Allen is the clear-cut top QB in fantasy this season. He leads all QBs in fantasy points per game, and no one at the position can match his upside. He’s dominant both with his arm and his legs, giving him the potential for monster stat lines. Allen has already popped off for two games with 40+ DraftKings points this season, and he has six more with more than 20.
Allen is coming off back-to-back subpar games, but he draws one of the best possible matchups in Week 14. The Bengals rank 31st in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. The Bills are implied for 29.75 points, which is the top mark on the slate.
The Bengals’ defense could be an even friendlier matchup moving forward. They got back starting QB Joe Burrow last week, and they put up more than 30 points in his return. If the Bengals’ offense can continue to perform at that level, opposing offenses are going to have to attack for 60 minutes to try to keep pace.
Unsurprisingly, Allen leads all QBs in both median and ceiling projection. However, he also leads all QBs in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. That makes him one of the best options from a value standpoint as well.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
If you can’t get up to Allen, Brissett stands out as an excellent alternative. He has been extremely consistent for fantasy purposes since taking over as the Cardinals’ starting quarterback. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all seven outings, and he’s finished as a top-10 scorer at the position in five of those weeks. That includes three straight finishes inside the top eight.
Brissett has done it thanks to a ton of volume. He’s averaged 43 pass attempts per game in his seven starts, and the Cardinals are No. 1 in Dropback Over Expectation over that time frame. As 8.5-point home underdogs vs. the Rams, expect Brissett to air it out once again.
The Rams are an extremely tough matchup, ranking second in pass defense EPA, but it’s hard to beat Brissett’s potential volume at a $5,700 price tag. He’s recorded at least 20 DraftKings points in seven straight games, and there’s no reason to expect much different vs. Los Angeles.
Brissett ultimately leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and he ranks third in that department on DraftKings.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
Jayden Daniels ($6,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Daniels will make his return to the lineup on Sunday after missing the Commanders’ past three games. That makes him one of the biggest X-factors on the slate.
If Daniels is fully healthy, $6,000 is definitely too cheap a price tag. He leads the position with a 99% Bargain Rating, and Daniels has historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.16 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool). He has a comparable ceiling projection to quarterbacks who are priced nearly $1,000 higher.
Of course, it remains to be seen if Daniels is fully healthy. You would assume that the Commanders wouldn’t rush him back at less than 100% since their season is already over, but we won’t know for sure until Sunday. Daniels also gets a subpar matchup vs. the Vikings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.8.
Still, the positives vastly outweigh the negatives for tournaments. He has the second-highest DraftKings optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
Trevor Lawrence ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
At this point, it’s safe to say that Lawrence is never going to become the QB he was expected to be as the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He’s now in his fifth professional season, and he’s yet to take a clear step forward. In fact, his average of 6.23 adjusted yards per attempt is actually the second-worst mark of his career, so he’s taken a step back if anything.
However, Lawrence has provided some decent fantasy value of late. He’s cracked 20 fantasy points in three of his past five games, including two straight. He has the potential to do it again Sunday vs. the Colts. This game has the third-highest total on the slate (46.5), and the Jaguars will have home-field advantage.
Lawrence stands out as one of the more undervalued passers on this slate using Sim Labs. He has the second-largest gap between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate on DraftKings, trailing only Allen.
Matthew Stafford ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Stafford is coming off a rare down game in Week 13. He still managed 242 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Panthers, but he also tossed an uncharacteristic two interceptions. The Rams were ultimately upset in Carolina, which put a serious damper on Stafford’s MVP chances. He’s now fallen behind Drake Maye in that market, though he still has a chance to change things over the final five games.
Stafford has put up huge numbers with his arm this season. For fantasy purposes, he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.08 over his past 10 starts on FanDuel, and he’s had at least 22.9 FanDuel points in four of his past six. He leads the league with 32 touchdown passes this season, and he ranks sixth in passing yards per game.
The Rams should be extremely motivated after last week’s performance, and their offense has plenty of upside vs. the Cardinals. They’re currently implied for 28.0 points, which trails only the Bills on this slate. Stafford has the second-highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models, despite having just the fifth-highest salary at the position on FanDuel. That’s a nice combination.
Stafford’s $8,000 price tag on FanDuel comes with a position-best 84% Bargain Rating, and he has the second-best optimal lineup rate on that site.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Tyrod Taylor ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Taylor is one of the cheapest starting QBs on this slate, but he has played well since replacing Justin Fields in New York. He managed 21.28 DraftKings points last week vs. the Falcons, and now he gets a matchup vs. the Dolphins’ inept defense. They’re 28th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Taylor brings just enough rushing upside to the table for fantasy purposes. He’s averaged more than 34 rushing yards per game as a starter for his career, and he had eight carries, 44 yards, and a touchdown last week. QBs who are capable of providing value with their legs are cheat codes for fantasy, and Taylor’s rushing ability propelled him to the fifth-highest score at the position last week.
No QB has a better points-per-dollar projection on DraftKings, and Taylor stands out as undervalued for tournaments in Sim Labs. He has the sixth-highest optimal lineup rate at the position.
Joe Burrow ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
Burrow returned for the Bengals last week, and he ultimately finished with 19.24 DraftKings points in his first start since Week 2. Burrow definitely had some rust to shake off – he completed just 52.2% of his passes for 6.54 adjusted yards per attempt – but the volume was encouraging for his prospects moving forward. He threw the ball 46 times against the Ravens, and Burrow has plenty of upside with that many pass attempts on a weekly basis.
The best part? It doesn’t necessarily feel like an outlier. The Bengals asked Joe Flacco to throw the ball 40+ times basically every week, so there’s no reason why Burrow can’t do the same. He’ll also get back No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins this week, so Burrow’s efficiency should be better as well.
Don’t forget how good Burrow was down the stretch last year. He averaged 25.6 fantasy points per game from Week 9 on, which was tied with Lamar Jackson for the best mark at the position. In a must-win game with a 53.5-point total, expect the Bengals to lean heavily on their star QB.
Bo Nix ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
Nix is the definition of a “boom-or-bust” quarterback. When he hits his ceiling, he’s capable of being the highest scorer of the week. He finished as QB1 in Week 7 vs. the Giants, and he had a QB4 finish vs. the Bengals in Week 4.
Unfortunately, those finishes have been offset by some real clunkers. He has three finishes outside the top 20 this season, and he’s finished as QB16 or worse in three straight weeks. That includes his worst game of the season, finishing with just 7.8 DraftKings points in a 10-7 vs. the Raiders.
Nix will get another crack at the Raiders in Week 14, and there’s no reason he should struggle again. They’re merely 24th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve been an above-average fantasy matchup for QBs all season. Nix had at least 19.24 DraftKings points in both games vs. the Raiders last season, so he’s a solid buy-low option across the industry.
Pictured: Jacoby Brissett
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
