Matthew Freedman publishes comprehensive positional breakdowns for the main NFL DFS slate throughout each week.
We’ll highlight one of the top players from each position (according to our Models) and his analysis of their outlooks below, but be sure to check out the full versions of each breakdown for the best cash-game and GPP plays for Week 14.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Watson does not have a good matchup. The Broncos have held quarterbacks to the fifth-fewest FanDuel points per game with 13.8.
But Watson is far too cheap on FanDuel, where he’s priced as the No. 9 quarterback despite ranking No. 2 with 22.8 points per game. Just last week, he had a slate-high 28.4 FanDuel points against a Patriots defense that has held quarterbacks to a league-low 11.2 points per game. Watson clearly can go off against any opponent.
Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens
It’s easy to be lukewarm on Ingram. Since the Week 8 bye, he has just 13.4 carries and two targets per game. He’s had fewer than 75 yards rushing in eight of 12 games this year, and he offers relatively little as a receiver.
But that perspective probable sells him short. He’s had more than 12 touches in every game this year but one, and he’s the lead back on a team that is No. 1 in the league with 33.8 points per game and a militant 55.1% run rate.
He’s No. 3 with 13 carries inside the opponent five-yard line, and he has either a touchdown or 100 yards in eight of 12 games. Ingram is one of just six backs who already has 1,000 yards from scrimmage and double-digit touchdowns. He’s the No. 11 fantasy back with 17.1 DraftKings points per game. It’s hard to complain about a guy like that.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Evans is like death. He’s going to get his at some point. Every game he disappoints just brings us one game closer to the week he goes off.
Over the past month, Evans has just 8.3 FanDuel points per game with a horrid -4.11 Plus/Minus and 0.0% Consistency Rating. He’s the definition of a boom/bust receiver.
This season, he has been a fantasy WR1 in five weeks and no better than a WR3 in seven weeks. In one game, he had zero receptions on just three targets.
But over his past four games, he still hasn’t been awful. His yardage total extrapolated over a 16-game season would be 1,016 yards. Think about that: Even when Evans has a massively disappointing stretch, he still plays like a 1,000-yard receiver.
Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints
Cook is an intriguing option. Playing in the same game as George Kittle, Cook could have anywhere from one-half to one-eighth of his higher-priced peer’s ownership rate, which makes him a desirable pivot play. Also, because they both play tight end, Kittle and Cook aren’t likely to be stacked together, but Saints-49ers has shootout potential.
The Saints are at home, the Coors Field of fantasy football. With quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints have a 65-46-2 record to the over at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, good for an A-graded 14.8% return on investment (including postseason, per Bet Labs).
If this game shoots out, then both Kittle and Cook could go off.