The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen at Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,500 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
On Sunday’s 10-game main slate, Josh Allen has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections, as highlighted above. In this post, we’ll lean into that aggregate as a strong, balanced approach to the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He doesn’t stand out as the best value thanks to his elevated salary, but he has a high enough ceiling to still be a very strong pay-up option, as he and the Bills look to bounce back from last Thursday’s loss to the Texans. They’ve had almost a mini-bye with a week and a half off since the loss and should come out looking to rack up points in Pittsburgh.
Allen had a down game with just 253 passing yards, no touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions last week. It snapped a string of four straight games with at least 23 DraftKings points and came just after he dominated the Bucs for 47.68 fantasy points as the top fantasy player in the league in Week 11.
With 18 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns, Allen always brings a very high ceiling. He was held in check last week by a very strong Houston Texans defense, but he gets a favorable matchup for QBs against the Steelers this week. Opposing QBs have averaged the fifth-most fantasy points per game, throwing for 19 touchdowns and running for three more in 11 games (2.0 per game).
While most of his best games have been at home, the matchup is strong enough to look for an Allen bounce-back if you are looking to build around a pay-up QB this week.
Top Value: C.J. Stroud at Indianapolis Colts – $5,000 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
The Texans are hopeful to get Stroud back under center in Week 13, and in his return, he has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks in the three-way aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Stroud will be stepping right back into a huge matchup on the road after Davis Mills led the team to three straight wins to climb back into the playoff hunt. He has shown a high ceiling this season, and he exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four complete games before his injury against the Broncos a month ago.
Stroud has been in the concussion protocol since that matchup vs. the Broncos, but he appears to be on track to return this week. Before the game he left early, he found success against the Titans (18.4 DraftKings points), Ravens (28.8 DraftKings points), and 49ers (25.7 DraftKings points) in a four-game stretch.
His young receivers, most notably Jayden Higgins, have continued to progress nicely while he was out, and his college teammate, TE Cade Stover, is back from IR as well. Stroud has a pretty neutral matchup against the Colts’ pass defense, though they have allowed eight passing touchdowns in their last six games and given up over 300 yards passing three times during that span. They have good home numbers, but have faced a fairly easy home schedule of quarterbacks.
Stroud will look to return and lead his team to a huge win and has the potential to be a great value if the offense’s success can continue and be boosted by his skill set down the stretch run.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: De’Von Achane vs. New Orleans Saints – $8,300 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
With Jonathan Taylor facing the tough Texans defense, it’s De’Von Achane who gets the top spot in the ceiling, median, and floor projections in the aggregate this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the top Plus/Minus projection at his position on both sites, showing he brings elite value along with his high ceiling.
Achane and the Dolphins are coming back from their bye week after defeating the Commanders in Spain for their third win in the last four games. Achane carried the load again in that victory, taking his 21 carries for 120 yards and adding five catches for 45 more yards. He finished with 24.5 DraftKings points even though he didn’t find the end zone.
Against the Bills in Week 10, Achane had two long touchdown runs and a total of 174 rushing yards on his way to a season-high 43.5 DraftKings points. He has over 15 DraftKings points in four straight and 10 of his 11 games this year. He’s only 100 yards from reaching 1,000 rushing yards this season and has been very involved as a receiver as well, with 54 catches for 370 yards (33.6 per game). He’s scored four of his nine touchdowns as a receiver, so he’s been one of the most valuable pass-catching running backs in the league.
The Saints rank in the middle of the pack as a running back matchup, but they’ve been a little more beatable on the ground lately, partly due to their offensive struggles. Running backs have five touchdowns in the last five weeks against New Orleans, averaging 131.4 rushing yards per contest over that stretch.
The Dolphins have done a lot to turn their season around after an ugly start, and Achane has been the heart of the offense. He should thrive if he continues to get such a big workload at home against the Saints on Sunday.
Top Value: Breece Hall vs. Atlanta Falcons – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
The Jets host the Falcons in Week 13, and Hall has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. He has a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and also offers a high ceiling, serving as the clear focal point of the Jets’ offense.
Hall has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games, dating back to his monster performance against the Bengals when he ran for 133 yards and two touchdowns while also throwing the game-winning score. He had 35.9 DraftKings points in that game and has posted two strong weeks in three games since the bye week as well.
Hall had 16 carries for 44 yards and four catches for 75 yards last week against the Ravens, earning 14.9 DraftKings points without a touchdown. He looked like he had a solid connection with Tyrod Taylor, who will start again for New York this week. While neither of the Jets’ quarterbacks is incredibly confidence-inspiring, Taylor under center seems to give Hall more room to work and a higher ceiling as a receiver.
The Falcons kept the Saints in check last week on the ground, but they have allowed 11 RB touchdowns in 11 games and an average of over 104 rushing yards per game to the position. The Jets should once again lean heavily on Hall, and if they do, he should be set up to return great value in Week 13.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaxson Smith-Njigba vs. Minnesota Vikings – $9,500 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
Welcome to the season of JSN! Smith-Njigba continues to put up incredibly impressive numbers every week, and he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel again in Week 13, as his Seahawks host the Vikings.
Smith-Njigba has the highest salary at the position on both slates, but he has exceeded salary-based expectations even while his salary has climbed. In his 11 games this season, he has exceeded salary-based expectations 10 times on FanDuel and nine times on DraftKings.
In the last seven weeks, he has posted over 20 DraftKings points in every matchup, and is averaging 28.8 DraftKings points per contest over that stretch.
Last week against the Titans, he hauled in eight of his 10 targets for 167 receiving yards, two touchdowns. It was his sixth 100-yard performance in his last seven contests. He has seven scores on the season, and he’s already totaled 1,313 receiving yards.
The Vikings are good against receivers, but JSN is matchup-proof and on fire. If you have the salary, he’s worth paying up for, as he tries to help his QB Sam Darnold get some revenge on the Vikings.
Top Value: John Metchie III vs. Atlanta Falcons – $3,800 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel
With Garrett Wilson (knee) and Joshua Reynolds (hip) on IR, Metchie is getting a big opportunity for the Jets. He’s still remarkably affordable on DraftKings, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating, and he brings the highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers. He isn’t quite as cheap on FanDuel, but he is still worth a look on that site as well.
The Jets acquired Metchie just before the trade deadline, and he stepped into a big role in the last two weeks. He had three catches for 45 yards and a touchdown in Week 11 against the Patriots, and he found the end zone again in Week 12 with six catches on seven targets for 65 yards.
Metchie played 86% of snaps in Week 12, the most of any receiver on the team, and led the team in targets and catches while finishing only behind Hall for receiving yards. He may not have the single-play explosiveness or long-term upside of his teammate Adonai Mitchell, but Metchie has been more productive and seems to have established a solid connection with Taylor.
If you don’t trust the Jets receivers, Jayden Higgins and Chimere Dike are other value plays that stand out on DraftKings. On FanDuel, it’s a little trickier to hunt down cheap options at the position, but Tre Tucker, Alec Pierce, and Parker Washington have the highest Plus/Minus projection of the receivers under $6,000.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
McBride continues his impressive season for the Cardinals. He is the most expensive TE on the slate but still brings tons of potential. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel by a wide margin. His salary went up $1,000 on DraftKings this week, so he doesn’t have the highest Plus/Minus projection, but he is still the clear top pay-up option at the position.
In each of his six games since Jacoby Brissett took over at QB, McBride has exceeded salary-based expectations. He has hit that mark in 10 of his 11 games on FanDuel overall this season, even though his salary is always high. McBride logged nine catches for 79 yards last week, posting at least 16 DraftKings points for the sixth straight week. He has over 29 DraftKings points in three of those games, and his extremely heavy volume gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling.
He’ll take on the Bucs this week in Tampa, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to QBs this season. They have done pretty well at limiting tight ends, but the Rams’ tight ends had seven catches for 70 yards and a touchdown last week.
Top Value: Oronde Gadsden II vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
If you can’t quite get together the hefty salary cap space for McBride, there are some very solid value plays across the board behind him. Gadsden has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He isn’t a bargain basement option, but he stands out as he and the Chargers come back from their bye week to host the Raiders.
The rookie was having a breakout season before the bye week, posting multiple catches in six straight games. That includes 5+ catches in four of those contests. He cooled off when the Chargers struggled against the Jaguars just before the bye week, but even in that letdown, he still had five targets. Over the last six weeks, he’s averaging 6.3 targets per contest and has had at least five targets in every contest.
Even though the Raiders have actually done pretty well against the position this season, getting Gadsden going again will be a key for the Chargers’ offense to get back in gear, so look for them to get him plenty of work throughout their late Sunday home matchup against their division rivals.
If you do want to go ultra-cheap, Kyle Pitts Sr. has the highest Plus/Minus Projection of all tight ends on FanDuel, and the second-highest on DraftKings. Harold Fannin Jr., AJ Barner, and Colby Parkinson stand out as good, inexpensive plays as well.
Pictured: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Photo Credit: Andrew Nelles-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images
