Our Blog


Week 13 NFL DFS Stacks: Roll with Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill

NFL-Injury-Report-Week-9-2018

This piece will identify some of my favorite DFS stacks of the weekend. Be sure to use our Stacking tool found within our Player Models to find the highest projected stacks, the stacks that figure to be chalky and more. Our Correlations page is also a great resource to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.

Quarterback + Wide Receiver

  • Patrick Mahomes ($7400 DraftKings, $8600 FanDuel)
  • Tyreek Hill ($8900 DraftKings, $8300 FanDuel)

I usually avoid recommending expensive and high-projected ownership stacks, but this one is simply too explosive.

Kansas City comes off their bye week to host Oakland’s 30th-ranked pass defense DVOA (Football Outsiders). It is possible that Hill’s ownership will be suppressed since he left Kansas City’s Week 11 game with a hamstring injury. After practicing fully this week, it’s all systems go in DFS for Hill.

Mahomes roasted the Raiders in Week 2 for the overall QB1 performance of 443 passing yards and four touchdowns. However, Hill missed that game after suffering a Week 1 shoulder injury. As our own Matthew Freedman noted, in his only two full games with Mahomes this season, Hill has averaged 120 total yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and eight receptions with an incredible 14.5 targets.

Oakland’s struggling secondary has poor options to cover Hill. Cornerback Lamarcus Joyner is coming off an injury and teammate Daryl Worley only ranks as the league’s 29th best cornerback per PFF.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid lines up in Hill as the slot receiver in one-third of their snaps, making him impossible to scheme out of the game. (PlayerProfiler)

With the highest implied team total of Week 13, it is imperative to find exposure to Kansas City’s explosive offense. Coming off their bye week, it’s too hard to pass on this high-floor/high-upside QB + WR pairing.

Running Back + DEF/Special Teams

  • Melvin Gordon ($6400 DraftKings, $7000 FanDuel)
  • Chargers D/ST ($3100 DraftKings, $3900 FanDuel)

This stack pairs a bell-cow running back with a defense that is finally healthy.

Melvin Gordon has shaken off the rust from his holdout and scored five touchdowns over the past five weeks. Since Week 7, he has averaged 16 carries per game, with four of those in the red zone. In Weeks 9 and 10, Gordon produced the overall RB3 and RB5 performances totaling 242 total yards over those two games.

Gordon brings the lowest Week 13 DFS price for a running back that will be heavily involved in both the running and passing game. He is priced well below Christian McCaffrey (11K FD, 10.5K DK), and is less than backs such as Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs who are limited in the passing game.

Per Fantasy Labs, Gordon has historically performed very well in this price range. In road games with a price between $6000-6500 on DraftKings, Gordon has averaged 27.7 fantasy points, a consistent 13.3 points above his respective implied total.

The key to this stack is the upside of playing a Chargers D/ST that is finally healthy. Los Angeles will have safety Derwin James and defensive tackles Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane all available at Denver.

The Broncos pass protection has been among the league’s worst, with an offensive line ranked 28th in pass protection per Football Outsiders. Whether Denver starts veteran quarterback Brandon Allen or rookie Drew Lock, the Broncos weak offensive line play is a concern against pass rushers Ingram and Joey Bosa (8.5 sacks).

With McCaffrey having an ideal matchup at home against Washington, it is difficult to fit two of the highest-priced running back in DFS lineups. Gordon provides the cheapest bell-cow option with an undervalued Chargers defense potentially facing a rookie quarterback in his first-ever start.

Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver

  • Aaron Rodgers ($6500 DraftKings, $8100 FanDuel)
  • Davante Adams ($7000 DraftKings, $8000 FanDuel)
  • Sterling Shepard ($4900 DraftKings, $5900 FanDuel)

Look for a big bounce-back performance from Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers after the Packers’ ugly 37-8 loss at San Francisco in Week 12.

Green Bay couldn’t ask for a better pass defense to face than the Giants, who have allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks over the past four games. The Giants also allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, making Green Bay’s Davante Adams an appealing DFS play.  The Packers’ leading wideout has seen an incredible 48 targets over the past four games.

With the recent acquisition of former Jets’ defensive tackle Leonard Williams, the New York defense has turned into a clear pass funnel allowing Chicago receiver Allen Robinson to tally six receptions, 131 yards, and a touchdown with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky last week. Green Bay’s Rodgers-Adams connection is certainly much more efficient.

New York has a depleted receiving core with tight ends Evan Engram, Rhett Ellison, and wide receiver Golden Tate all likely to miss this game due to injury. That leaves a massive increase in volume for wideout Sterling Shepard, who was very productive without Tate on the field.

That level of production at such an affordable price makes Shepard a very attractive DFS play in a game New York will need to score to stay competitive.

With all the attention on higher-priced quarterbacks, betting on Rodgers to bounce back at a much cheaper price is a smart play. The high projected volume for Adams and Shepard make this a solid stack with potential week-winning upside.

Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver

  • Nick Foles ($5700 DraftKings, $7500 FanDuel)
  • Dede Westbrook ($5000 DraftKings, $5700 FanDuel)
  • Mike Evans ($6900 DraftKings, $7700 FanDuel)

If you want to pivot off playing Patrick Mahomes against Oakland, give strong consideration to stacking the Jacksonville-Tampa Bay game.

Tampa Bay’s defense has leaked like a sieve all season. The Buccaneers allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed the second-most passing yards per game. They have allowed an average of 32.2 points per game over their last nine contests.

Against wide receivers, Tampa has been even more generous. No team allows more fantasy points to opposing wideouts, making this is a feast game for the Jaguars receiving core.

While D.J. Chark is the likely play, I recommend stacking Foles with fellow wideout Dede Westbrook as the high volume slot target. When fully healthy, Westbrook is averaging a healthy 7.7 targets per game. Tampa Bay has struggled to guard slot receivers all season with Tyler Lockett (WR1), Larry Fitzgerald (WR19), and Russell Gage (WR19) all posting solid performances (EstablishTheRun).

It is difficult to determine which Tampa Bay wide receiver to chose for DFS, but even with Chris Godwin producing the overall WR1 line last week, Mike Evans still saw eight targets. With the overall WR1 and WR2 performances in Weeks 6 and 8, but no touchdowns since, I’m grabbing the slight discount over Godwin and confidently banking on volume from Jameis Winston.

This game features the third-highest game total on the Sunday main slate with a massive Tampa Bay defensive pass funnel. Foles is a low investment/high reward option to Mahomes and playing Westbrook allows for more latitude at the running back position. Assuming this is an “Evans week,” this QB + WR + WR stack should perform well in tournament lineups.

This piece will identify some of my favorite DFS stacks of the weekend. Be sure to use our Stacking tool found within our Player Models to find the highest projected stacks, the stacks that figure to be chalky and more. Our Correlations page is also a great resource to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.

Quarterback + Wide Receiver

  • Patrick Mahomes ($7400 DraftKings, $8600 FanDuel)
  • Tyreek Hill ($8900 DraftKings, $8300 FanDuel)

I usually avoid recommending expensive and high-projected ownership stacks, but this one is simply too explosive.

Kansas City comes off their bye week to host Oakland’s 30th-ranked pass defense DVOA (Football Outsiders). It is possible that Hill’s ownership will be suppressed since he left Kansas City’s Week 11 game with a hamstring injury. After practicing fully this week, it’s all systems go in DFS for Hill.

Mahomes roasted the Raiders in Week 2 for the overall QB1 performance of 443 passing yards and four touchdowns. However, Hill missed that game after suffering a Week 1 shoulder injury. As our own Matthew Freedman noted, in his only two full games with Mahomes this season, Hill has averaged 120 total yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and eight receptions with an incredible 14.5 targets.

Oakland’s struggling secondary has poor options to cover Hill. Cornerback Lamarcus Joyner is coming off an injury and teammate Daryl Worley only ranks as the league’s 29th best cornerback per PFF.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid lines up in Hill as the slot receiver in one-third of their snaps, making him impossible to scheme out of the game. (PlayerProfiler)

With the highest implied team total of Week 13, it is imperative to find exposure to Kansas City’s explosive offense. Coming off their bye week, it’s too hard to pass on this high-floor/high-upside QB + WR pairing.

Running Back + DEF/Special Teams

  • Melvin Gordon ($6400 DraftKings, $7000 FanDuel)
  • Chargers D/ST ($3100 DraftKings, $3900 FanDuel)

This stack pairs a bell-cow running back with a defense that is finally healthy.

Melvin Gordon has shaken off the rust from his holdout and scored five touchdowns over the past five weeks. Since Week 7, he has averaged 16 carries per game, with four of those in the red zone. In Weeks 9 and 10, Gordon produced the overall RB3 and RB5 performances totaling 242 total yards over those two games.

Gordon brings the lowest Week 13 DFS price for a running back that will be heavily involved in both the running and passing game. He is priced well below Christian McCaffrey (11K FD, 10.5K DK), and is less than backs such as Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs who are limited in the passing game.

Per Fantasy Labs, Gordon has historically performed very well in this price range. In road games with a price between $6000-6500 on DraftKings, Gordon has averaged 27.7 fantasy points, a consistent 13.3 points above his respective implied total.

The key to this stack is the upside of playing a Chargers D/ST that is finally healthy. Los Angeles will have safety Derwin James and defensive tackles Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane all available at Denver.

The Broncos pass protection has been among the league’s worst, with an offensive line ranked 28th in pass protection per Football Outsiders. Whether Denver starts veteran quarterback Brandon Allen or rookie Drew Lock, the Broncos weak offensive line play is a concern against pass rushers Ingram and Joey Bosa (8.5 sacks).

With McCaffrey having an ideal matchup at home against Washington, it is difficult to fit two of the highest-priced running back in DFS lineups. Gordon provides the cheapest bell-cow option with an undervalued Chargers defense potentially facing a rookie quarterback in his first-ever start.

Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver

  • Aaron Rodgers ($6500 DraftKings, $8100 FanDuel)
  • Davante Adams ($7000 DraftKings, $8000 FanDuel)
  • Sterling Shepard ($4900 DraftKings, $5900 FanDuel)

Look for a big bounce-back performance from Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers after the Packers’ ugly 37-8 loss at San Francisco in Week 12.

Green Bay couldn’t ask for a better pass defense to face than the Giants, who have allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks over the past four games. The Giants also allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, making Green Bay’s Davante Adams an appealing DFS play.  The Packers’ leading wideout has seen an incredible 48 targets over the past four games.

With the recent acquisition of former Jets’ defensive tackle Leonard Williams, the New York defense has turned into a clear pass funnel allowing Chicago receiver Allen Robinson to tally six receptions, 131 yards, and a touchdown with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky last week. Green Bay’s Rodgers-Adams connection is certainly much more efficient.

New York has a depleted receiving core with tight ends Evan Engram, Rhett Ellison, and wide receiver Golden Tate all likely to miss this game due to injury. That leaves a massive increase in volume for wideout Sterling Shepard, who was very productive without Tate on the field.

That level of production at such an affordable price makes Shepard a very attractive DFS play in a game New York will need to score to stay competitive.

With all the attention on higher-priced quarterbacks, betting on Rodgers to bounce back at a much cheaper price is a smart play. The high projected volume for Adams and Shepard make this a solid stack with potential week-winning upside.

Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver

  • Nick Foles ($5700 DraftKings, $7500 FanDuel)
  • Dede Westbrook ($5000 DraftKings, $5700 FanDuel)
  • Mike Evans ($6900 DraftKings, $7700 FanDuel)

If you want to pivot off playing Patrick Mahomes against Oakland, give strong consideration to stacking the Jacksonville-Tampa Bay game.

Tampa Bay’s defense has leaked like a sieve all season. The Buccaneers allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed the second-most passing yards per game. They have allowed an average of 32.2 points per game over their last nine contests.

Against wide receivers, Tampa has been even more generous. No team allows more fantasy points to opposing wideouts, making this is a feast game for the Jaguars receiving core.

While D.J. Chark is the likely play, I recommend stacking Foles with fellow wideout Dede Westbrook as the high volume slot target. When fully healthy, Westbrook is averaging a healthy 7.7 targets per game. Tampa Bay has struggled to guard slot receivers all season with Tyler Lockett (WR1), Larry Fitzgerald (WR19), and Russell Gage (WR19) all posting solid performances (EstablishTheRun).

It is difficult to determine which Tampa Bay wide receiver to chose for DFS, but even with Chris Godwin producing the overall WR1 line last week, Mike Evans still saw eight targets. With the overall WR1 and WR2 performances in Weeks 6 and 8, but no touchdowns since, I’m grabbing the slight discount over Godwin and confidently banking on volume from Jameis Winston.

This game features the third-highest game total on the Sunday main slate with a massive Tampa Bay defensive pass funnel. Foles is a low investment/high reward option to Mahomes and playing Westbrook allows for more latitude at the running back position. Assuming this is an “Evans week,” this QB + WR + WR stack should perform well in tournament lineups.