Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a GPP, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Michael Wilson ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
Wilson has seen plenty of routes and snaps for the Cardinals this season, but it hasn’t led to a ton of production. However, the team was without top receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. last week, so the door was open for Wilson to take on a larger role. Could he take advantage of it, or would it just be more empty cardio?
Turns out, Wilson was more than ready. He racked up a massive 18 targets, and he finished with 15 receptions and 185 yards. He ultimately finished as the highest-scoring receiver for the week, despite failing to score a touchdown. That’s extremely impressive.
The Cardinals did throw the ball 57 times last week, which is clearly an outlier. However, Wilson racked up a 33% target share and was targeted on 38% of his routes. Even if the Cardinals’ passing attack regresses to normal levels of volume, Wilson should still be looking at a solid handful of opportunities vs. the Jaguars.
That makes him an extremely appealing value option. He ranks first in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and he’s second at the position on FanDuel. It’s hard to imagine many lineups not using him in cash games.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
Picking the top “stud” receiver each week is a difficult exercise. We have a bunch of strong options to choose from, though it’s a bit easier this week with Ja’Marr Chase suspended and Puka Nacua playing on Sunday Night Football. It leaves St. Brown and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the clear top two.
While JSN has been the best receiver in fantasy this season, St. Brown gets the edge in our projections for Week 12. That stems primarily from his matchup vs. the Giants. New York has been abysmal defensively this season, and the Lions are implied for a whopping 31.5 points as a result. That’s the top mark on the slate by a pretty comfortable margin.
St. Brown has seen an uptick in usage this season. He owns a 32% target share after posting a 27% mark last year. The Lions are one of the most run-heavy teams in football, but when they take to the air, the ball is typically headed in St. Brown’s direction. He managed just two receptions last week in a brutal matchup vs. the Eagles, but he still racked up 12 targets.
St. Brown is also one of the most prolific touchdown scorers at receiver. He has eight receiving scores this season, which trails only Davante Adams. With the Lions expected to put plenty of points on the board, it’s a great spot for St. Brown to potentially get back in the paint.
Rashee Rice ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
It may only be Week 12, but the playoffs have officially started for the Chiefs. They’re currently sitting at just 5-5, which seems unfathomable for a Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid-led squad. That puts them in ninth place in the AFC. ESPN still gives them a 53% chance of making the postseason, but they need to start stringing some wins together.
They’re coming off a loss to the Broncos last week, and they’ll face another tough opponent in Week 12. The Colts are leading the AFC South at 8-2, and they’re coming off a bye in Week 11. That said, the Chiefs’ offense should be better than last week at a minimum. Indianapolis is more offensive-minded than Denver, and this game has a healthy 49.5-point total. The Chiefs are listed as 3.5-point favorites, giving them the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate. It should be an outstanding game environment.
Rashee Rice has solidified his standing as the Chiefs’ top receiver. He’s posted a 26% target share through four games this season, and that number was higher before last week’s showing. He had been at 27% or greater in each of his first three outings.
Rice has done that despite a part-time role in the offense. He’s managed just a 70% route participation, but he’s been targeted on 29% of his routes run. That gives him plenty of room for growth moving forward.
The Chiefs are first in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation, and they’re currently without starting running back Isiah Pacheco. The Colts are seventh in pass defense EPA, but expect Mahomes and company to come out slinging in this spot. Rice stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $8,100 salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating.
A.J. Brown ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
The Eagles continue to win games, but they’re doing it as ugly as possible. They’re merely 25th in yards per game – down from eighth last season – while they’ve dipped from seventh to 16th in points. Even their biggest stars have struggled for fantasy purposes, with Brown and Saquon Barkley both posting poor seasons by their lofty standards.
Brown has been extremely vocal about his usage this season, and the Eagles responded by giving him 11 targets last week vs. the Lions. The end product still wasn’t pretty – seven receptions for 49 scoreless yards – but the uptick in volume was at least a positive. Brown finished with a 44% target share in that outing, compared to a 28% mark for the year.
If Brown sees another elevated target share, he has the potential for a huge day vs. the Cowboys. Dallas has been awful defensively this season, ranking 28th in pass defense EPA. They’re also allowing the second-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers.
It’s hard to trust Brown for cash games, but it’s warranted on DraftKings in this matchup. His price tag has dipped down to just $5,900, resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating. He’s ultimately a strong midrange option to pair with Wilson and St. Brown.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel)
While St. Brown gets the edge in our projections this week, JSN has reached the point where he needs to be considered every time he takes the field. That’s how dominant he’s been this season.
Even the Rams’ outstanding defense couldn’t slow him down. Smith-Njigba racked up 12 targets, nine catches, and 105 receiving yards against them last week, and he finished with more than 20 DraftKings points for the ninth time in 10 games.
Smith-Njigba boasts the top utilization at the position. He leads all receivers with a 38% target share, and he’s second with a 48% air yards share. He combines volume and efficiency in a way that very few receivers can, leading the league with an average of 11.8 yards per target.
Smith-Njigba’s matchup vs. the Titans is a bit of a mixed bag. The Titans are not a very good defensive team, and they rank just 26th in pass defense EPA. However, they’re so bad that opposing offenses don’t have to throw the ball against them a ton. They have an average margin of victory of -13.0 points, so the Seahawks might be able to cruise to a victory. Seattle is 31st in Pass Rate Over Expectation, so if they can lean on their rushing attack in this matchup, they’ll probably look to do so.
Still, Smith-Njigba has the highest ceiling projection at the position, and he’s proven he can smash in any game script. Even if the Seahawks don’t have to throw it much in the second half, JSN should be instrumental in helping them build their lead.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
It will be another week with Jameis Winston at the helm for the Giants, with Jaxson Dart missing his second straight game due to a concussion. Winston’s first start was surprisingly uneventful. He threw one interception, but he lacked the big, aggressive plays we typically associate with him.
When Winston dropped back to pass, Robinson was his top option. He posted a 31% target share in that outing, his fourth game with a mark of at least 31% in his past five. Overall, he’s posted a 31% target share since Week 7, which is the seventh-best mark at receiver. That type of volume makes him underpriced across the industry.
The Giants are also likely going to have to throw the ball a ton this week. They’re nearly two-touchdown underdogs vs. the Lions, who are in desperate need of a win.
Robinson stands out as particularly appealing on FanDuel. His $5,900 salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating, and he owns the fourth-best projected Plus/Minus at the position. He also has the fourth-highest FanDuel optimal lineup rate at receiver in Sim Labs.
Stefon Diggs ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Diggs is another FanDuel special, though he has some tournament appeal across the industry. His optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Patriots are going to be a bit healthier this week, with Rhamondre Stevenson and Kayshon Boutte both expected to rejoin the rotation. However, Diggs still stands out as the team’s top receiving threat. He hasn’t been the most consistent target earner this season, but he’s coming off a season-high 89% route participation last week. He secured 34% of the team’s targets in that outing, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel for the seventh time in his past eight games.
In addition to his price tag, Diggs also draws one of the best possible matchups this week vs. the Bengals. Their defense has been one of the worst in football since the start of last year, and they’re dead last in pass defense EPA this season. They have been a bit better against receivers than they have against other positions, but it still stands out as an elite spot for Diggs. The Patriots are implied for 28.75 points in this contest, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
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DeVonta Smith ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
While Brown was the Eagles’ clear No. 1 receiver last week, Smith has filled that role for most of the year. Before last week, Smith posted an elite 33% target share across his previous five games. He averaged 18.6 PPR points per game during that stretch, which was the fifth-best mark at the position.
It’s possible that Brown has regained his top spot in the pecking order, but it’s also possible it was just a one-week aberration. Regardless, there are opportunities for both guys to do damage vs. the Cowboys.
Smith is currently projected for less ownership than Brown on DraftKings, but his optimal lineup rate is actually higher. St. Brown is the only receiver with a larger gap between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, making him an excellent pivot for GPPs.
Jakobi Meyers ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Brian Thomas Jr. will not make his return to the lineup this week, leaving Meyers and Parker Washington as the Jaguars’ top two receivers.
Meyers was a late addition to the squad, with the Jaguars acquiring him before the trade deadline. He was limited to just a 50% route participation in his first game with his new team, but he was up to 83% last week.
That unsurprisingly led to a huge uptick in targets. Meyers finished with a 30% target share vs. the Chargers, though it was a game where the Jaguars didn’t need to throw very often. Trevor Lawrence attempted just 22 passes in a blowout win over the Chargers.
Jacksonville will likely need a bit more out of its passing attack in Week 12, making Meyers an outstanding buy-low option. He has the potential to be one of the cheapest double-digit target guys on the entire slate. He has the fifth-highest optimal lineup rate on DraftKings, and he’s projected for less than 15% ownership.
Tee Higgins ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
With Chase out of the picture in Week 12, Higgins has the potential to step into a massive role for the Bengals. The team has not been shy about letting Joe Flacco air it out, and Chase has posted a 36% target share over his past five outings. Higgins hasn’t displayed the same level of chemistry with Flacco, but he could see a big uptick in targets with Chase not available.
Higgins isn’t expected to be contrarian on FanDuel – his 98% Bargain Rating has him squarely on the radar – but his ownership projection is a bit more modest on DraftKings. The Patriots aren’t an elite matchup, but the volume upside here is too good to ignore.
Zay Flowers ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
The Ravens have the second-highest implied team total of the week, so their offense should do plenty of damage vs. the lowly Jets. However, most of the attention is being placed on the team’s rushing attack. That makes sense. The Ravens are nearly two-touchdown favorites, so it’s a spot where they could easily just ride Derrick Henry to victory.
However, Flowers still has a target share of nearly 30% for the season, and he’s facing a team that traded away their two best cornerbacks before the deadline. They also lost one of their best pass-rushers. It’s very possible that the Ravens’ passing attack helps them establish a big lead, even if they don’t get a ton of opportunities late.
Flowers hasn’t displayed a ton of upside this season, but this is one of his best matchups to date. He has much more potential than his salary and projected ownership suggest.
Pictured: Rashee Rice
Photo Credit: Imagn
