The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes vs. Indianapolis Colts – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
Throughout this post, we’ll rely heavily on an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections, as highlighted above. Four of the 22 QBs on the main slate are very close at the top of those projections this week, with Patrick Mahomes claiming my top spot just barely over Drake Maye, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson. Mahomes has the highest median and floor projections of all QBs on the slate, and he also brings a little more value since his salary is lower than the other strong options.
Mahomes and the Chiefs are in a little trouble at 5-5 and need a win over the upstart Colts at home this week. The running game with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco (knee) has not been great this season, forcing Mahomes to carry more of the workload.
In each of his last seven games, Mahomes has thrown for at least 250 yards, and he attempted a season-high 45 passes in last week’s loss to the Broncos. He only had one touchdown in that game and also threw an interception. He has 18 touchdown throws and four touchdown runs on the year to help him average 22.9 DraftKings points per game. He’s been significantly better in his five home games, averaging 26.6 DraftKings points in those contests, with 14 of his 18 touchdown throws coming in his five home games.
Mahomes and the Chiefs will face the Colts, who are coming off their bye and will be looking to prove their legitimacy as a contender with a big road win. The game has significant playoff implications for both teams, and the Colts rank in the middle of the pack as a matchup for QBs.
We’ve seen Mahomes and the Chiefs step up so many times in the past, especially at home. Since he’s carrying so much of the load in Kansas City’s offense, he has a very high ceiling in what should be one of the best games of the day.
Top Value: Jacoby Brissett vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,300 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
For the second week in a row, Brissett has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks in the three-way aggregate of the projections on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating. He has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection on FanDuel as well, where he’s priced up.
Brissett has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his five games this season on both sites. The Cardinals have been playing from behind the last few weeks, giving Brissett plenty of opportunity to air it out. He has attempted 101 passes in the last two weeks, throwing for 258 yards against the Seahawks and a massive 452 yards against the 49ers last week. He put up that impressive total even though he was without top receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
Brissett has thrown two touchdown passes in each of his five starts this season, giving him 10 touchdowns to go with just three interceptions. He’s posted over 20 DraftKings points in each of his five starts, and he will be a great value if he reaches that level again this week.
After flashing his ceiling with so many yards last week, Brissett is in an even better matchup in Week 12, facing the Jaguars, who allow the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs this season.
He proved last week that he can work well in a stack with Trey McBride at tight end or grab his cheap receivers, with Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch getting more work once again since Harrison has been ruled out.
His bargain salary on DraftKings makes him a great place to start your lineup if you’re plan is to go cheap at QB and stack stars in the other slots, and he’ll look to continue his impressive production this week, but this time help his team get a win. It’s not as flashy as some of the other matchups on the board, but Cardinals-Jaguars could be a sneaky-good late game.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Bijan Robinson at New Orleans Saints – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,600 on FanDuel
Even with Jonathan Taylor back from his bye week, Bijan Robinson has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has a top-three Plus/Minus projection at his position on both sites.
The Falcons will have to rely on Robinson as both a rusher and receiver, with Drake London (knee) not expected to play. The team will also be making a change at quarterback with Kirk Cousins stepping in for the injured Michael Penix Jr. (knee).
Last week at home against the Panthers, Robinson had a huge game, taking a season-high 23 carries for 104 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns, while adding four catches for 39 yards as well. He has scored four touchdowns as a rusher and two as a receiver this season, and he has multiple catches in each of his 10 games this year.
Robinson will definitely be the focus of the team’s offense this week, and he should be set up for a good week since he’ll take on the Saints. New Orleans has allowed 10 RB touchdowns in 10 games this season, including five in their last four games before the bye week.
He has a favorable matchup with a very high ceiling, and the Falcons are expected to give him the workload he needs to deliver a monster game as the top pay-up running back on the board this week.
Top Value: Alvin Kamara vs. Atlanta Falcons – $5,500 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
On the other side of that NFC South matchup, Kamara has a top-five Plus/Minus projection in the aggregate projections for both sites. He has the highest Plus/Minus projection of options under $6,000 on DraftKings and under $6,500 on FanDuel. Chase Brown and Emanuel Wilson are solid value options as well, but Kamara could be in a good spot for a throwback week against the Falcons.
In Week 10, before the bye week, Kamara exceeded salary-based expectations and looked very solid with 22 carries for 83 yards and caught all three of his targets for 32 more yards. He still hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1, but it was a huge improvement for the offense, which seems like it could be trending in the right direction under rookie QB Tyler Shough. Kamara’s big game was his first with at least 100 scrimmage yards since Week 2, and in his previous five games, he didn’t even get to 40 rushing yards.
Kamara has been dealing with injuries all season, but he continues to play each week. The bye week could help him be refreshed and ready to take on the Falcons, who have been a top-five matchup for running backs this season, allowing 11 RB touchdowns and an average of 112 rushing yards and 34.8 receiving yards per game to the position.
The Saints are hosting the Falcons and will be looking to give their fans something to get excited about for the rest of the season. The rookie QB and the veteran RB showed positive signs before the bye, and Kamara will be a great value if he can pick up that momentum in Week 12.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. New York Giants – $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
After a disappointing showing last week on the road for Sunday Night Football against the Eagles, the projections love St. Brown and the Lions to have a bounce-back week against the Giants at home. St. Brown has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on both sites in the aggregate projections, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection on both sites.
St. Brown only had two catches for 42 yards and a season-low 6.2 DraftKings points in Week 11, but he did still have 12 targets against the Eagles. As disappointing as the total was, he’s unlikely to have the same issues against the Giants if he continues to get so much work. He has double-digit targets in four of his last five games and has posted over 16 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games before Sunday’s letdown.
In his four home games, St. Brown has averaged an impressive 26.9 DraftKings points per game, scoring six touchdowns, while he has only two touchdowns and an average of 14.5 DraftKings points per game in his six road games.
The Lions have the highest implied team total on the slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and they’ll be facing a very beatable Giants defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Opposing receivers have 12 touchdowns in 11 games while averaging 165.09 receiving yards per contest against New York.
St. Brown should be set up for a big bounce-back game in this favorable matchup at home, so spend up for him if you have the salary available at receiver.
Top Value: Michael Wilson vs. San Francisco 49ers – $4,800 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
With Ja’Marr Chase suspended, Tee Higgins and Andrei Iosivas should be top values against the Patriots, but Wilson has a higher Plus/Minus projection than every receiver on the slate except for St. Brown on DraftKings. He has been priced up a little more on FanDuel, but he still has the fifth-highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers on that site as well.
Wilson had a monster game last week, stepping in for Harrison, while the Cardinals aired it out all day long against San Francisco. He finished with 15 catches on 18 targets for a total of 185 receiving yards, the most for any wide receiver in a single game this season. He didn’t find the end zone but still had the biggest week of any receiver on DraftKings and the second-biggest on FanDuel.
Even with Harrison out, it seems unlikely that he’ll repeat that incredible level of volume in Week 12, but he could definitely find the end zone to make up for his expected drop in targets. Wilson has at least three catches in five straight games with Brissett at QB, giving him a high floor to go with his high ceiling as the Cardinals welcome in the Jaguars.
The Jags have been a slightly above-average matchup for receivers, but Wilson’s real value is because he’ll be in a bigger role for Arizona again this week. The Cardinals clearly trust Brissett to air it out, and he’s definitely established a good rapport with Wilson, who brings elite value again this week. He can be stacked with Brissett or used independently.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
McBride has been outstanding all season for the Cardinals, and he has continued to flourish with Brissett at QB. He stepped into even more work last week without Harrison and seems clearly above the rest of the tight end options in terms of pure upside and value. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position on both sites by a significant margin.
In each of his five games with Brissett at QB, McBride has exceeded salary-based expectations. He has hit that mark in nine of his 10 games on FanDuel overall this season, even though his salary is always high.
Last week, he caught 10 of 11 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown, finishing with 30.5 DraftKings points. He has over 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is averaging 19.1 DraftKings points per game on the season.
At this point, especially without Harrison, McBride seems virtually matchup-proof as an elite play. However, he does get some extra juice from taking on the Jaguars, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
McBride isn’t just the best tight end on the board; he’s one of the most consistent fantasy plays at any position and a key pay-up play to consider in Week 12.
Top Value: AJ Barner at TEN – $3,300 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
If you opt to go with a cheap tight end instead of paying up for McBride, or if you’re considering doubling up on the position, Barner is a very interesting pivot to consider. He has stepped into a unique and productive role with the Seahawks and has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position on DraftKings, where he has an impressive 98% Bargain Rating.
There is some risk with Barner, since he had no catches and no targets just two weeks ago when facing McBride’s Cardinals. He bounced back in a big way last week, though, catching 10 of his 11 targets for 70 yards.
Barner has over 10 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games with at least three catches in each of those five contests. He has four receiving touchdowns on the season, and he has also started taking carries in short-yardage situations, including by the goal line.
He has become the go-to option in Seattle’s version of the “Tush Push.” In Week 9, he ran for a touchdown, and his work in that role gives him some extra upside in Week 12’s matchup against the Titans. He is a boom-or-bust play, but he comes extremely cheap on DraftKings relative to his potential upside.
On FanDuel, where Barner is more expensive, Kyle Pitts Sr., Hunter Henry, and Harold Fannin Jr. are strong and affordable values who have higher Plus/Minus projections than Barner.
Pictured: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Photo Credit: Imagn
