Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Trey McBride ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
The gap between McBride and the rest of the tight ends in fantasy grows on a weekly basis. He’s up to 18.5 PPR points per game, and no other tight end is above 15.0 for the year. The gap has been even larger recently. McBride has finished as a top-two scorer at the position in four of the past five weeks, with three TE1 finishes over that time frame.
McBride’s utilization at tight end is absolutely elite. He leads the position with a 27% target share, while his 27% air yards share is tied for first. McBride’s numbers have only increased with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. He’s racked up 57 total targets over his past five games, and he’s gone for 100+ receiving yards in two straight.
The biggest difference for McBride recently has been touchdowns. He’s historically struggled to find the paint, but he’s seen a big uptick in scoring chances with Brissett under center. He owns a 48% end zone share in Brissett’s five starts, and he’s scored six total touchdowns in that stretch. That’s nearly as many as he had in his first 54 career games combined (eight).
McBride’s price tag continues to rise, but he draws another fantastic matchup this week vs. the Jaguars. They’ve allowed the second-most PPR points per game to the position, and McBride’s +4.5 Opponent Plus/Minus ranks second on the slate.
Paying up for a TE is never easy, but McBride has been worth every penny of late. He ranks first among tight ends in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he has the top ceiling projection on both sites.
Mark Andrews ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
While McBride is a player on the rise, Andrews is clearly headed in the opposing direction. He’s down to a 68% route participation for the year, while his target share sits at just 17%.
However, Andrews has seen a slight uptick in his past two outings. He’s posted a 20% target share in both contests, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight with Lamar Jackson under center.
Andrews’ biggest selling point is his touchdown prowess. He’s scored four total touchdowns over his past three games, including the first rushing touchdown of his career last week. While that’s obviously not going to be an every-week occurrence, Andrews has some of the top touchdown equity at the position.
That could pay dividends against the Jets. The Ravens are implied for 29.0 points in this matchup, the second-highest on the main slate. If the Ravens are going to do that much scoring, there’s a good chance that Andrews gets involved. He ranks second at tight end in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, making him one of the best sources of savings at the position.
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Kyle Pitts ($4,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
Pitts is still young, but his career has been filled with nothing but disappointment through his first four seasons. He entered the league with as much fanfare as any TE prospect in history, but his results have largely been underwhelming. He did manage 1,000 yards as a rookie, but it came with just one touchdown. He’s taken a clear step back since then, and he’s currently 17th at the position in PPR points per game.
The good news for Pitts this week is Kirk Cousins taking over at quarterback. It will be his second start of the year, and Cousins leaned heavily on Pitts in his first. He had a 30% target share in that outing, and he finished with 14.9 DraftKings points. It was his second-best mark of the year, trailing only the game where he scored his lone touchdown. Pitts could also see a few additional targets with Drake London out of the lineup.
Ultimately, Pitts could be a nice source of value for the Falcons down the stretch. He also draws a solid matchup vs. the Saints, who are merely 25th in pass defense EPA.
Travis Kelce ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
The Chiefs suffered another loss in Week 11, dropping them to just 5-5 for the year. The Chiefs have shown some vulnerability in recent years, but a .500 record would’ve seemed unfathomable with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at the helm. They’re currently sitting in ninth place in the AFC, so they’re going to need a strong finish just to make the postseason.
The good news is that their offense should perform much better this week than it did vs. the Broncos. While Denver has an elite defense, the Colts are more league-average. This game has a 49.5-point total, while the Chiefs are listed as 3.5-point home favorites. That gives them the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate. The Colts have also allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends.
It makes Kelce a nice midrange target across the industry. While he’s not the same player that he was in his prime, he still owns a respectable 19% target share for the year. He was at 30% last week vs. the Broncos, and he responded with nine catches, 91 yards, and a touchdown. Ultimately, he’s still capable of getting the job done.
Kelce stands out as particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $6,000 price tag comes with an 84% Bargain Rating. He also owns the top optimal lineup rate at the position in Sim Labs, while he dips to third among TEs on DraftKings.
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Hunter Henry ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
The Bengals are an awful defense, and they have been historically bad against opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed 21.9 PPR points per game to the position, while no other team is above 17.6. They’ve conceded 12 tight end touchdowns through just 10 games, while they’ve also allowed the most yards and catches per game to the position. In other words, any tight end is worth considering in this matchup.
Henry gets that assignment this week. His involvement in the Patriots’ offense can vary, but his 16% target share for the year is passable. He did erupt for 29.0 DraftKings points vs. the Steelers in Week 3, who are another team that has struggled against the position this season. It makes Henry a classic high-risk, high-reward GPP option.
Theo Johnson ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
The Giants are still without Jaxson Dart at quarterback, so Jameis Winston will draw his second consecutive start. Winston’s first outing was pretty uneventful, completing 19 of 29 passes for 201 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. Johnson wasn’t particularly involved in that outing, garnering just a 14% target share.
Still, Johnson’s role in the offense has grown as the year has progressed, and the Giants will likely have to crank the passing volume up to 11 in this spot. The Lions are massive home favorites, and they’re coming off an embarrassing showing last week vs. the Eagles. They need a win, and they have not been afraid to run up the score on inferior opponents under Dan Campbell.
It makes Johnson an interesting buy-low option. He’s projected for less than 5% ownership on DraftKings, but his optimal lineup rate checks in at a healthy 9.5%. It’s the second-largest discrepancy at the position, trailing only McBride.
Brenton Strange ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)
It’s still to be determined if Strange will make his return to the lineup in Week 12. He’s been out of the lineup since Week 5, but he had his 21-day practice window opened and is officially questionable vs. the Cardinals. If he can go, the Jaguars could certainly use him. Backup Hunter Long has already been ruled out, leaving Johnny Mundt and Quintin Morris as the only tight ends currently on the roster. If Strange is going to play on Sunday, he’ll need to be activated off the IR by Saturday afternoon.
Strange was a decent part of the passing attack before suffering his injury. He had a target share of at least 20% in his past two full games, and that was with the Jaguars’ receiving corps a lot healthier than it is now. Travis Hunter is out for the year, while Brian Thomas Jr. will miss his third consecutive contest.
If Strange is able to suit up, he could be thrown right into the fire. The matchup vs. the Cardinals is also a good one, with Arizona allowing the 10th-most PPR points per game to the position. He’s another player whose optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership in Sim Labs.
Pictured: Travis Kelce
Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
