Week 12 NFL DFS RB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.

However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Chase Brown ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

The Bengals will not get back Joe Burrow at quarterback this week, but that’s probably fine with Brown. He’s been rolling with Joe Flacco under center the past few weeks, averaging 18.9 PPR points per game over his past four outings. That’s the sixth-best mark at the position, trailing only five of the very best running backs in all of fantasy.

Brown’s utilization over his past two games has been particularly juicy. He’s racked up an 89% snap share, 83% carry share, and 25% target share in those contests, all of which are absolutely elite. He’s also received 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line and nearly all of the passing down snaps, so he’s checking every box from a usage standpoint. Brown has responded with at least 18.7 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, despite failing to score a touchdown in either contest.

That type of workload makes Brown underpriced heading into Week 12, even in a tough matchup vs. the Patriots. New England has been elite against the run this season, and they’ve allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game to opposing running backs. However, this game is expected to feature plenty of scoring, with the total currently sitting at 50.0 points.

Even if Brown struggles to get going on the ground, he should make up for it with his work through the air. He’s seen 22 total targets over his past two outings, which helps mitigate the matchup concerns. Overall, he ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Bijan Robinson ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel)

It’s been a season of ups and downs for Robinson. He’s undoubtedly one of the best running backs in football, but his workload isn’t ideal. Specifically, Tyler Allgeier remains a massive threat to steal touches away from him around the goal line. Allgeier actually has more carries from inside the five-yard line than Robinson this season, which is not something that most high-end fantasy RBs have to contend with.

Fortunately, Robinson makes up for it in other ways. He’s an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield, and his 19% target share ranks third at the position. He’s also averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and he’s capable of taking the ball in from distance.

Robinson also managed to find the paint twice last week, and he had 75% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line. If that trend continues moving forward, it would give Robinson even more upside than usual.

The Falcons are going to have to survive without Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback for the rest of the season, but that could end up being another positive for Robinson. He should be a clear focal point vs. the Saints in Week 12, and he has the top ceiling projection at the position on DraftKings.

Emanuel Wilson ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

This play is contingent on Josh Jacobs being ruled out for Week 12. Jacobs suffered a knee injury in their Week 11 win over the Giants, and he’s officially listed as questionable vs. the Vikings. The Packers are still fighting for the division crown and a playoff spot at 6-3-1, so if Jacobs is healthy enough to go, expect to see him out there.

However, if Jacobs is ruled out, Wilson should step into the top spot in Green Bay’s backfield. That has the potential to pay big dividends. Wilson has averaged 4.7 yards per attempt for his career, and he had 11 carries in relief of Jacobs last week. He finished with 40 yards and a touchdown, and he added one catch for nine yards.

The Vikings would also represent a favorable matchup. They’re merely 20th in rush defense EPA, and the Packers are currently listed as 6.5-point home favorites. That sets up a potentially favorable game script.

Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Ashton Jeanty ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

Jeanty is coming off an absolute debacle in his last outing. He was facing the Cowboys’ terrible defense, yet they managed to limit him to just six carries for seven yards. Jeanty had one carry go for 11 yards in that outing, so his other five carries totalled -4 yards.

Now, Jeanty will have to navigate a brutal matchup vs. the Browns. Their defense has been elite all season, particularly against the run. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to the position, and they’re second in rush defense EPA. On paper, there’s no real reason to look to Jeanty in this spot.

So, why is he popping for fantasy purposes? It stems primarily from his recent uptick in receiving volume. He’s had at least five targets in three straight games, including eight last week vs. the Cowboys. He owns an 18% target share over that stretch, which is the fifth-best mark at running back.

The Browns’ defense has also started to show a few cracks. They’ve surrendered at least 177 rushing yards in two of their past three games, and they’ve been far worse when playing on the road for most of the year.

The Raiders are also listed as slight favorites in this matchup, which should give Jeanty a favorable game script. Jeanty has only taken the field as a favorite twice this season, and he’s racked up 16.6 and 37.5 DraftKings points in those outings (per the Trends tool).

Add in a reasonable price tag, and Jeanty has a top-five optimal lineup rate across the industry in Sim Labs. His optimal lineup rate is also higher than his projected ownership, making him an ideal tournament target.

Derrick Henry ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)

It has not been a noteworthy season for King Henry. He’s still an all-time great running back, but he’s shown signs of decline in his age-31 season. He’s averaging a full yard per carry less than he did last season, while his advanced metrics aren’t nearly as favorable. Specifically, he’s just 32nd in the league in broken tackles, which seems almost unfathomable for him.

However, Henry got off the schneid last week vs. the Browns, posting his first game with 100+ yards and a touchdown since all the way back in Week 1. If he can do that on the road vs. Cleveland, there’s no reason he can’t post a repeat performance vs. the Jets. New York ranks 22nd in rush defense EPA, and they only figure to be worse after trading away Quinnen Williams.

The Ravens are favored by nearly two touchdowns in this matchup, and Henry typically feasts in that split. Since joining the Ravens, he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.27 on DraftKings when favored by at least a touchdown.

Henry is an excellent tournament option across the industry, but he really stands out on FanDuel. He’s only slightly more expensive than he is on DraftKings, and his lack of pass-catching upside doesn’t hurt nearly as much.

D’Andre Swift ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)

It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Bears are currently on top of the NFC North at 7-3. Their offense has taken a big step forward under head coach Ben Johnson, ranking fourth in yards per game and eighth in points.

Swift started the year slowly, but he has looked excellent in recent weeks. He’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry over his past five games, and he’s added two catches and 25 yards per game as a receiver. He’s managed to keep rookie Kyle Monangai at bay, despite Monangai posting a monster game with Swift out of the lineup in Week 9. Since returning, Swift has handled 59% of the carries and a 13% target share, both of which are in line with his full-season marks.

Swift should be able to build on his recent success this week vs. the Steelers. They’re merely 28th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the 28th-most yards overall on defense. They’re not a particularly impressive unit, despite Mike Tomlin working his typical voodoo magic from a turnover standpoint.

Swift ranks fifth at the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where his $5,600 price tag comes with a 90% Bargain Rating. He’s also another player whose optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Alvin Kamara ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

Is Tyler Shough… maybe not that bad? He certainly looked the part of an NFL quarterback in his last outing, racking up 282 yards and two touchdowns in an upset win over the Panthers. If he’s competent at quarterback, it would make the franchise’s future outlook a whole lot rosier.

Shough making the Saints better on offense has a trickle-down effect on everyone. Kamara is coming off 14.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, which was his best mark since Week 2. He saw 22 carries and three targets, and he managed 115 total yards.

The volume is a major positive for Kamara’s outlook vs. the Falcons. He’s still capable of getting plenty of looks in games where the Saints are competitive, and they’re actually listed as two-point favorites on Sunday. The Falcons have also struggled to defend running backs this season, allowing the third-most PPR points per game to the position.

It makes Kamara an extremely attractive tournament pivot. He’s projected for minimal ownership across the industry, but he ranks second in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Kareem Hunt ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)

Hunt is another cheap source of potential volume this week. Isiah Pacheco remains out of the lineup for the Chiefs, which means the coast is clear for Hunt to serve as the team’s top running back. That’s not necessarily the most desirable role – the Chiefs are first in Pass Rate Over Expectation this season – but Hunt has a snap share of at least 81% in back-to-back games. He had 100% of the team’s designed rushing attempts in their last outing, and he was able to punch in a touchdown vs. the Broncos.

While Denver was a brutal opponent, the Colts shouldn’t be nearly as intimidating. This game has a 49.5-point total, and the Chiefs’ implied team total ranks fifth on the slate. Kansas City also absolutely needs to win this contest. They’re currently on the outside looking in of the playoff picture, so expect to see a better effort from them vs. the Colts.

Saquon Barkley ($7,500 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

No one expected Barkley to repeat last year’s numbers in 2025-26. He’s coming off a monster workload, and players with that level of volume almost always regress the following year.

However, the way Barkley has regressed has been surprising. He’s managed to stay relatively healthy; he just hasn’t been effective. He’s averaging two fewer yards per carry than he did last year, while his yards per game have been slashed from 125.3 to 66.2. His offensive line has performed nearly as well as they did last season, while Barkley isn’t doing as much with the ball in his hands either.

However, Barkley proved he still has some level of ceiling against the Giants in Week 8. He had 150 rushing yards, 24 receiving yards, and two touchdowns, despite exiting the game early with an injury. He finished with 36.4 DraftKings points in that contest, which was the third-highest mark of the week.

Barkley draws another elite matchup this week vs. the Cowboys, who have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to the position. It gives Barkley an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4 on DraftKings, while his 95% Bargain Rating is the fourth-best mark at the position.

Jonathan Taylor ($10,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

The only thing that can stop Taylor is a bye week. He’ll return to the lineup in Week 12 following his week off, and the last time we saw him, he torched the Falcons for 244 rushing yards and three touchdowns in Berlin. He leads the league in basically everything, including fantasy points per game.

Taylor’s $10,000 price tag on DraftKings is ridiculous, but it’s actually pretty reasonable on FanDuel. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games, and no one at the position can match his ceiling. He’s finished as the RB1 in four separate weeks this season, and he has two other top-three performances. Taylor is projected for roughly 10% ownership on FanDuel, and any time JT is going to be contrarian, he’s worth considering at this point.

Pictured: Chase Brown
Photo Credit: Imagn