The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,000 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Using an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections, Josh Allen has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of the 22 starting quarterbacks on Sunday’s 11-game main slate. He matches the most Pro Trends of all quarterbacks on DraftKings, where he also has a 94% Bargain Rating.
Allen and the Bills are looking to bounce back from a tough loss in Miami last week as they take on the Buccaneers at home in Buffalo. Allen’s fantasy numbers weren’t awful last week, as he earned 24.34 DraftKings points to exceed salary-based expectations by throwing for 306 passing yards and two touchdowns in the loss.
It was a classic letdown game, though, after beating the Chiefs in Week 9, and Allen contributed to the problem with a pair of costly turnovers. Because the Bills were trying to rally, he had the chance to air it out more, reaching 300 yards for the first time since Week 1.
In this week’s matchup, he’ll face the Bucs, who have defended opposing QBs well. They’ve rank in the middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to the position, but Drake Maye did have 270 yards and a pair of passing scores against them last week.
Allen’s dual-threat ability gives him a high ceiling against Tampa, and he is the top pay-up play to build around this week.
Top Value: Jacoby Brissett vs. San Francisco 49ers – $4,900 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Brissett has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks in the three-way aggregate of the projections on DraftKings, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating. He has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection on FanDuel as well, where he’s priced up just a little higher.
After starting the season as the backup to Kyler Murray (foot), Brissett has played very well, throwing for over 250 yards in each of his four starts for the Cardinals this season, with exactly two touchdowns in each outing. He added a touchdown run as well in the team’s win over the Cowboys in Week 9 for a season-high 24.8 DraftKings points.
Last week against Seattle, the Cardinals fell behind big early, so Brissett finished with 44 pass attempts for 258 passing yards. It was the second time in his four starts that he attempted over 40 passes, so the team is definitely fine with him airing it out.
He’ll be missing Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendix) this week, but he still has solid targets led by Trey McBride.
The 49ers defense is always tough, but the unit is missing key players, especially in its pass rush. Quarterbacks have put together some good games against them recently, including in last week’s loss to Matthew Stafford and the Rams. They have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season, giving up 20 QB touchdowns in their last nine games.
His bargain salary on DraftKings makes him a great place to start your lineup if you’re plan is to go cheap at QB and stack stars in the other slots.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey at Arizona Cardinals – $9,000 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
Once again, Christian McCaffrey has the highest salary of any running back, but he also has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has a top-three Plus/Minus projection of all running backs on both sites since his production has been at such an elite level.
He’ll likely get Brock Purdy back at quarterback this week for the 49ers’ trip to Arizona, and he’ll look to bounce back after a quiet week last week against the Rams. The game script got away from him a little bit since the 49ers were trying to rally from a big deficit, and as a result, he only had 30 rushing yards on 12 carries but still chipped in eight catches for 66 yards.
Despite that disappointing performance of just 13.6 DraftKings points, CMC has over 22 DraftKings points in eight of his 10 games this season and posted over 36 DraftKings points twice in the last four weeks. He has scored eight total touchdowns on the season, and his work as a pass-catcher out of the backfield gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor as the focal point of San Francisco’s offense.
With Purdy back under center, that focus will remain the same, with plenty of work coming McCaffrey’s way. He’ll be facing the Cardinals for the second time this season after posting 52 rushing yards and 88 receiving yards on 10 catches against them in Week 3. Overall, Arizona has been decent against running backs but has allowed 10 touchdowns to the position in nine games this year. Last week, the Seahawks’ running backs had 181 rushing yards and two scores against them since Seattle was playing from ahead most of the game.
McCaffrey is a solid pay-up play to build around this week and has the potential to break the slate with another big performance. Purdy’s return raises the ceiling of the offense but could also mean more downfield passing. If it does, that could open up more space for CMC even if it slightly reduces his hefty workload.
Top Value: Jaylen Warren vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
In the aggregate projections for both sites, Warren has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back, edging out Chase Brown and RJ Harvey. Harvey will be a fascinating play if J.K. Dobbins (foot) is out as expected, but he’s in a very tough matchup against the Chiefs, while Warren is in a smash spot against the Bengals.
The Bengals-Steelers matchup has the highest point total on the slate, and the Steelers have the highest implied team total of the afternoon, according to our Vegas Dashboard. They’ll look to bounce back from last Sunday night’s primetime loss as they face their division rivals, who are coming off a bye week.
Warren only posted 11.1 DraftKings points last week against the Chargers since the game script forced the Steelers to go pass-heavy. He finished with 14 carries for 70 yards and added two catches for 21 more yards. Kenneth Gainwell actually played more snaps than Warren in the backfield, but he didn’t get a single carry and only had two catches for four yards.
Even in his timeshare with Gainwell, Warren has had at least 13 carries in four straight weeks. One of his best games of the season came in his first matchup with the Bengals, when he went off for 22.8 DraftKings points by taking 16 carries for 127 yards and adding four catches for 31 receiving yards in Week 7. He didn’t find the end zone that week and only has three touchdowns on the season, which has kept him off the radar as an elite back despite his consistent work.
No team in the NFL has given up more DraftKings points to running backs than the Bengals, who have allowed 13 RB touchdowns in nine games along with an average of 141 rushing yards and 44 receiving yards per contest.
It’s a smash spot for Warren, and his affordable salary makes him a great value option to build around in the backfield.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase at Pittsburgh Steelers – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
Chase and the Bengals are back from their bye against Warren’s Steelers, and even though Jaxson Smith-Njigba has a slightly higher median projection on both sites, Chase has the highest ceiling and floor projections. His salary is also lower than JSN’s and Puka Nacua’s, making him a great ceiling play to build around this week in his rematch with the Steelers.
In Week 7, Chase let up the Steelers secondary for 16 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. He was targeted a massive 19 times in that game by Joe Flacco, who gets another start this week while Joe Burrow (toe) continues his recovery.
In his four games with Flacco, Chase has averaged 11 catches for 114.25 yards per game while finding the end zone twice. He didn’t score in the Bengals’ tough loss to the Bears just before the break, but he still topped 20 DraftKings points with over 100 receiving yards for the third time in his last five contests.
Since the Bengals’ defense has struggled so badly, Chase and the offense have had to be aggressive and take plenty of big shots down the field. If that happens again this week, look for another monster game against Pittsburgh.
No team in the NFL has been a better matchup for receivers this season than the Steelers. Opposing receivers have scored eight touchdowns in nine games, while averaging 194 yards per game. In this potentially high-scoring contest, Chase should be primed to go off again.
Top Value: Michael Wilson vs. San Francisco 49ers – $3,800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
When salaries came out, Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendix) was healthy, but now that he has been ruled out for this week, Wilson seems extremely underpriced since he’ll have to step up as the team’s top receiver this week against San Francisco. He has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers on DraftKings, where his salary under $4,000 gives him a 95% Bargain Rating.
Harrison drew 10 targets and 12 targets in the last two weeks coming out of the bye week, so his absence will leave lots of work available for Wilson, Greg Dortch, and possibly Xavier Weaver. Zay Jones (Achilles) and Simi Fehoko (wrist) are on injured reserve, so they will not be in the mix this Sunday.
Wilson has already been involved in the offense with multiple catches and at least four targets in every game since Week 4. He had his best total of the season in Week 9 against Dallas, hauling in three catches for 61 yards and 9.1 DraftKings points. He scored his only touchdown in Week 2, but the third-round pick from Stanford will need to step up and be an even more involved target for Jacoby Brissett this week.
Wilson had four touchdowns last season and has flashed a little upside when given opportunities, even though he’s never really had a breakout performance. He only had one catch for five yards against the 49ers earlier this year, but the situation will be very different this week.
The 49ers gave up touchdowns to both Davante Adams and Puka Nacua last week, and opposing receivers now have 10 scores against them in their 10 games this season while averaging over 150 yards per contest.
Wilson should get enough targets to return excellent value at his bargain salary on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s a little more expensive, but if you need an alternative, Wan’Dale Robinson is extremely underpriced on that site with a 98% Bargain Rating. I highlighted Robinson’s value potential in my early values this week.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. San Francisco 49ers – $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
McBride was probably the best tight end play on the main slate even before the injury to Harrison, and the potential of even more targets makes him an even stronger option against the 49ers. Since Brock Bowers is in primetime for a second straight week, McBride brings the top projections across the board at tight end to this week’s Sunday slate. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position on both sites by a significant margin.
McBride has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games, continuing to flourish with Jacoby Brissett at QB instead of Kyler Murray (foot). He has scored a touchdown in four straight weeks, with five touchdowns over that span, and at least five catches for at least 50 yards in each game as well.
He had a season-high 127 yards last week against the Seahawks, finishing with 30.7 DraftKings points. He has over 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and has drawn at least nine targets in each of those four games.
He had five catches for 43 yards and a score in his first meeting with the 49ers, and he has at least five catches in every single game this season, averaging 6.8 catches on 9.8 targets per game. With even more targets available in this rematch against San Francisco, McBride is the best tight end option that salary can buy this week.
Top Value: Kyle Pitts vs. Carolina Panthers – $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
Pitts has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites behind only McBride, and he’s relatively affordable if you can’t afford to spend up on McBride. He has an 84% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where affordable pass-catchers can be hard to find in some weeks.
Pitts and Michael Penix Jr. have shown a solid connection all season long, and Pitts has racked up 45 catches for 420 yards and one touchdown in his first nine games this season, averaging 5.0 catches on 6.5 targets per game. He has been even more productive at home, hauling in 24 of 26 targets in four games.
He had a rough game in Germany, with just two catches for 38 yards last week against the Colts, but he could be in a good bounce-back spot against the Panthers, who he had four catches for 39 yards against in their first meeting this season. The Panthers have allowed tight ends to average over 70 receiving yards a game this season, and Juwan Johnson had four catches for 92 yards and a touchdown against them last week.
Since the Panthers trounced the Falcons in Week 3, 30-0, the Falcons will be looking for some payback in Week 11 in what should be a hard-fought divisional matchup.
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Photo Credit: Imagn
