The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayden Daniels vs. New York Giants – $7,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
The Commanders open the second season of the Jayden Daniels/Dan Quinn era with a home matchup against their division rivals, and Daniels is in a great spot to start the season hot, according to our projections. Daniels has the highest median and ceiling projection in the evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and THE BLITZ, which we’ll lean on heavily in his post.
Daniels averaged 22.2 DraftKings points and 22.2 FanDuel points per game last year and led the Commanders on an impressive playoff run to the NFC Championship game. He started his success with his first NFL win against the Giants in Week 2 of last season, posting 13.44 DraftKings points, and he beat them again in Week 9 with 19.86 DraftKings points.
This offseason, the Commanders upgraded their playmakers around Daniels by adding Deebo Samuel Sr. and drafting Jacory Croskey-Merritt to contribute in the backfield. The new-look options under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will still rely heavily on Daniels to make plays, and Kingsbury stated this offseason he expects a “big jump” for Daniels this year.
In this very favorable matchup, Daniels opens the season with a great place to put on a show in Week 1.
Top Value: Trevor Lawrence vs Carolina Panthers – $5,300 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Lawrence was limited to 10 games last year by injury, but he could be in great position for a bounce-back season with new head coach Liam Coen stepping in at the helm for the Jags. He’s very affordable on DraftKings, where 15 starting quarterbacks have a higher salary than him coming into Week 1.
Lawrence has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all quarterbacks on DraftKings in the evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Raybon, and THE BLITZ, and he has the second-highest on FanDuel, behind only Drake Maye.
In addition to Coen, the Jaguars brought in Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown to supplement Brian Thomas Jr., who had a monster rookie season. Giving Lawrence a good group of starting pass-catchers to connect with.
No team on Sunday’s slate allowed more DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks last year than the Panthers did, so he should be in a place to post big points right away in what could end up being a high-scoring contest in Jacksonville. There are several very strong value plays on both sides of this game, so we’ll be back to it again later in this post.
Lawrence has huge potential for a bounce-back season if Coen can get this offense humming like he did the Bucs’ last year. In limited preseason action, Lawrence looked sharp, so he should be able to get off to a fast start against Carolina.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Bijan Robinson vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Robinson established himself as one of the top fantasy running backs in football last year, and he’s projected to get off to a good start this season against the Bucs. He has the highest median, floor, and ceiling projections at running back in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him a great pay-up option with a high ceiling in Week 1.
He flourished under first-year offensive coordinator Zac Robinson last year as the team’s clear featured back. He ended up with the third-most rushing yards in the league with 1,456 rushing yards and totaled 14 rushing touchdowns in one of the NFL’s run-heaviest offenses.
With Michael Penix Jr. under center out of the gate this season, the Falcons will likely continue to give Robinson a huge workload to take pressure off the young quarterback. Even though the Bucs were pretty solid against running backs last year, Robinson had 23.6 DraftKings points in their most recent meeting, showing he can have success against his division foe even though they’ll likely stack the box against him this week.
The Falcons did lose right tackle Kaleb McGary for the year, which makes Robinson a little higher risk in Week 1, but he still brings the highest ceiling on the board, according to our projections.
Top Value: James Conner at New Orleans Saints – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Week 1 always features some intriguing new timeshares to monitor closely at running back. Some bargain plays will likely emerge in bigger roles than expected and be good value plays moving forward, but in Week 1 the aggregate projections give the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings to an old reliable option in James Conner.
Conner has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he’s significantly cheaper compared to FanDuel. He and the Cardinals get a good matchup on the road in New Orleans against the Saints. They’re road favorites in the Big Easy, and the game script could call for plenty of Conner and second-year running back Trey Benson if the Cards get out to an early lead.
In 2024, Conner played 16 games and posted his second straight season with over 1,000 rushing yards. He had nine total touchdowns and tacked on 414 receiving yards on 47 catches. He finished last year strong, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games prior to getting just four carries in his final game against the Rams.
The Saints allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs last season, so Conner should be a good spot to grab some nice value on DraftKings. On FanDuel, rookies Ashton Jeanty and TreVeyon Henderson each have a 97% Bargain Rating and have the two highest Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate rankings, as they go head-to-head in New England.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase at Cleveland Browns – $8,100 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
The Bengals and Browns meet in an AFC North battle in Week 1, and the Bengals have put a lot of energy into avoiding a repeat of last year’s slow start. Chase’s contract issue may have been part of that, but this year, he and Joe Burrow have had a great camp and preseason and look ready to start the league on fire.
Chase has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all receivers in the aggregate, and he is coming off a very productive year last year with 127 catches, 1,708 yards, and 17 touchdowns.
He averaged over 30 DraftKings points per game over his last eight games last year and posted 22.4 fantasy points against the Browns during that stretch. If the Bengals go up big early and play from ahead, he could have a lighter workload, but the team always finds a way to get the superstar involved, especially near the end zone.
The Browns allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to receivers last year, and Chase should be in a spot to show why he was the top pick in many fantasy drafts coming into the year.
Top Value: Emeka Egbuka at Atlanta Falcons – $4,600 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
When Week 1 player salaries came out, it wasn’t clear how involved the Bucs’ rookie would be right off the bat, but with multiple injuries, Egbuka is set up to be an elite value in his NFL debut against the Falcons. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate projections.
Egbuka is lined up to be the second receiver in a proven and productive offense with Baker Mayfield at the helm. Since Jalen McMillan (neck) is on IR and Chris Godwin (ankle) is out until October, the No. 19 overall pick in last year’s draft should get heavy utilization right away across from Mike Evans
Like many other receivers from Ohio State, Egbuka made a quick transition to the NFL and starred throughout training camp and preseason. He could be set for a very splashy debut against the Falcons, who allowed the third-most DraftKings points to receivers last season.
Mayfield and the Bucs get into some high-scoring contests, and if Baker is rolling on Sunday, he should make Egbuka a top value play. Other strong options to consider are rookies Tetairoa McMillan and Jayden Higgins, who make sense along with Ricky Pearsall on DraftKings and Jaylen Waddle on FanDuel, who have strong Bargain Ratings on those sites.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at New Orleans Saints – $6,200 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
While Brock Bowers has the highest median projection and is an elite play against the Patriots, McBride has a higher ceiling and floor projection in the aggregate, and he also comes cheaper than Bowers on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He worked exceptionally well last year with Kyler Murray, emerging as one of the most targeted and most successful tight ends in the league.
He only had two touchdowns all year but was still extremely productive with 111 receptions and 1,146 yards in 16 games. His heavy involvement and ability to put up huge games even without touchdowns make him a good play almost every week, with a high ceiling when he does get into the end zone.
The Saints were slightly more beatable by tight ends last year than the Patriots, although neither is a premium matchup. If you’re going to pay up for a star at the position, McBride is a better play this week, especially with the salary savings he brings. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel with a 99% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Hunter Henry vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $3,900 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
On DraftKings, Brenton Strange has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end, and I’m a big fan of his upside, as I discussed in my Early Look this week. Instead of focusing on him here, though, let’s look at Henry, who has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end on DraftKings and the sixth-highest on FanDuel in our aggregate projections.
Henry emerged as a favorite for quarterback Drake Maye last season, finishing the year with career highs of 66 catches for 674 yards. He only had two touchdowns, but he had at least four catches in his last five full games last year and in eight of his last nine.
He missed some time in preseason with an undisclosed injury but should be ready to go for Week 1 in a favorable matchup against the Raiders, who gave up the second-most fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends last year. Since he has such an established rapport with Maye, he has a relatively high floor and a good ceiling as the Pats begin their new era under head coach Mike Vrabel and returning offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
Pictured: James Conner
Photo Credit: Imagn
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