We’re back in the Apex this weekend for a 12-fight card between welterweights Randy Brown and Gabriel Bonfim. The fights start at 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Gabriel Bonfim ($8,600) vs. Randy Brown ($7,600)
That the main event of the evening features a fighter — Bonfim — ranked #14 in his weight class in the UFC’s official rankings taking on an unranked opponent says a lot about the quality of the card. It’s the first five-round fight for either man and is ostensibly set up to showcase the 28-year-old Bonfim, as Brown is 35 and firmly settled into a “gatekeeper” role in the division.
I don’t mean gatekeeper in a derogatory fashion here, though. Brown is 8-2 across his last 10 fights, with a split decision loss to Bryan Battle that he potentially deserved to win and a stoppage loss to current champion Jack Della Maddalena. Outside of those losses, he’s done a great job knocking fighters back down the mountain as they attempt to climb the rankings.
Bonfim is 5-1 in the promotion but coming off a controversial split decision win over Stephen Thompson, who was 42 at the time and had been finished in his two previous bouts. Bonfim did pick up five takedowns in that three-round fight, though, and averages more than four per 15 minutes in the UFC. That gives him plenty of upside for DFS, though Brown is a solid grappler and won’t be an easy out in that department.
I see this fight as favoring Bonfim early, as he’ll have more success grappling when he’s fresh. If, however, Brown can survive a trip or two to the canvas, his superior striking could allow him to take over. On a card with just 12 fights, I’ll be stacking this one in cash since I could see either man posting a big score. For GPPs, I’ll be leaning towards Brown for the salary and ownership savings, as I view this fight as somewhat closer than the market.
The Easy Chalk
Joseph Morales ($9,300)
On a card where it’s hard to feel particularly confident about any of the favorites for a variety of reasons, “Bopo” stands out. The Ultimate Fighter season 33 winner was impressive in his championship-winning match, picking up two takedowns prior to a second-round submission win over Alibi Idiris as a heavy underdog.
Now he’s an equally heavy favorite over Matt Schnell ($6,900), who is 1-3 across his last four UFC appearances. The lone win came against Jimmy Flick, who has since been cut, and he was taken down five times in that fight. That makes a matchup with Morales particularly troublesome for Schnell, given the pressure and wrestling Morales brings.
Schnell has also been knocked out twice in his last four fights, so he provides plenty of opportunity for his opponents to put up points. Morales isn’t an especially powerful puncher, but she pushes forward with boxing combinations and could find the button if Schnell gets careless. Plus, the line has moved considerably his way, making him the heaviest favorite on the card and thus a solid value.
That’s a rare combination of both upside and safety, making Morales my favorite overall play on the slate.
The Upside Play
Zach Reese ($9,100)
Zach Reese is the third potential opponent on the card for Jackson McVey ($7,100), in what will now be a catchweight bout at 195 lbs. McVey dropped his UFC debut against Brunno Ferreira back in July and mounted little resistance before being submitted in the first round. McVey was 6-0 when he came into the promotion, but against much lesser competition, making it hard to determine if McVey really deserves to be in the UFC at this point in his career.
Were this not a short-notice fight for Reese, he’d likely be favored even more heavily than his -305 odds. Reese is 3-2 in the UFC, and all of his wins included either a stoppage or multiple takedowns. His losses have come against fighters he was unable to grapple against, and what we’ve seen from McVey doesn’t suggest he fits that bill.
The likeliest outcome is either a quick stoppage from Reese or a takedown-heavy decision. There’s some inherent risk with him taking the fight on just a few days notice, though, so Reese isn’t the most confident play. Still, we don’t have many rock-solid plays at the top, so I’ll likely be rostering him in cash games and GPPs.
Updated on 12/15/25
The Value Play
Mayra Bureno Silva ($7,000)
There are four fights on the card favored to go the distance, and the cheapest fighter competing in one of those fights is Bueno Silva. Crucially, she might actually have more finishing upside than Jacqueline Cavalcanti ($9,200), who is 4-0 in the UFC with four decision victories. That two of those were also split decisions gives a bit of hope that Silva could even pull off the upset.
The former title challenger has dropped three in a row, including her decision loss for the vacant title against Rocky Pennington, but is a dangerous submission grappler with four submission UFC wins in her five official UFC victories. She also had another submission victory overturned due to a positive drug test for Ritalin of all things, which is hardly a performance enhancer.
Either way, she’s favored at -145 in the “finish only” market on DraftKings, which suggests that she’ll either get a full 15 minutes to work or be the one to pick up the stoppage. Either way, at worst she’s a solid floor play, and at best she brings much more upside than the typical $7,000 fighter. That makes her a strong cash game play, with some fringe GPP upside.
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The Contrarian Choice
Max Gimenis ($6,800)
While they aren’t always — or even most of the time — going to work out, the massive rewards offered by the slate’s heaviest underdog often make them an excellent play from a strategy standpoint. That’s true this week with Gimenis, who is likely to come in with low single-digit ownership but is implied to have more than a 20% chance to pull off the upset over Josh Hokit ($9,400) on Saturday.
Personally I make his odds even better than the line implies. Gimenis is a well-known submission grappler who has medaled at multiple ADCC and IBJFF world championship events. Hokit is a former college wrestler and NFL practice squad player who has shot for a takedown within the first few seconds of each of his MMA fights. If he does that against Gimenis, he could be asking for precisely the type of fight Gimenis is likely to get the better of.
The other option is Hokit uses his athleticism and wrestling to keep the fight standing, which would lead to a relatively sloppy fight between two fighters who prefer to compete on the ground. I’d make Hokit a slight favorite in such a matchup since he’s the better overall athlete, but not enough to justify Hokit’s price as the cheapest fighter on the slate.
Either way, any win for Gimenis likely propels him to the optimal lineup, and his implied odds of winning are much higher than his likely ownership. That makes him an excellent GPP flier even if you disagree with my read that those implied offs are a bit off as well.
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The Swing Fight
Hyder Amil ($8,200) vs. Jamaal Emmers ($8,000)
For the second week in a row, I’m listing a fight as the “Swing Fight” despite having a strong stance on one side of the contest. This time I’ll be tilting my exposure to the favorite, Amil, who unfortunately has caught some steam in the marketplace as well.
Still, that makes him a solid value against Emmers, since his moneyline price has gone from -135 on Monday to as high as -150 as of Friday. “Hurricane Hyder” is 11-1 as a pro, suffering his first loss this June against Jose Delgado. Delgado caught him with a knee 26 seconds into the bout but otherwise has been perfect in his career.
The same can’t be said about Emmers, who has alternated wins and losses across his eight-fight UFC career. The fighters he’s beaten are a combined 2-9 in the UFC, while he’s lost to every fighter with a .500 or better UFC record. Amil certainly falls into the latter category, which explains his favoritism here.
I’ll be hedging my bets with some Emmers exposure though. His last two wins were both knockouts, which could be a problem given Amil’s last fight. Plus, Amil took the fight on somewhat short notice, so it’s hard to say how prepared he’ll be for this one. Either way, it’s -290 to end inside the distance with a relatively close moneyline, so it’s worth getting exposure to both sides.
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Pictured: Gabriel Bonfim
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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