We’re back in the Apec this weekend for a 13-fight card between surging featherweight contenders Steve Garcia and David Onama. The fights start at 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Steve Garcia ($8,300) vs. David Onama ($7,900)
This weekend’s main event would be a top-ten or so matchup in most of the men’s divisions with the winning streaks both men bring to the cage. Steve Garcia has won six straight, while Onama has won four in a row, but they sit at #12 and #13 in the official rankings for the stacked featherweight division.
Of Garcia’s six wins, the first five came by knockout, and the sixth included a knockdown against Calvin Kattar. That’s an impressive run that’s also useful for DFS, as he tends to score exceptionally well in his wins. His last loss was also a big DFS score — for his opponent — as he suffered a first-round knockout and was dropped twice against Maheshate in 2022.
Onama has a similar, though less extreme, “get or get got” style. He’s finished half of his UFC wins but was dropped by Roberto Romero and nearly finished by Nate Landwehr en route to comeback victories in both fights.
Both men also bring some mild grappling upside, with right around a takedown per 15 minutes in their UFC careers. This one is 25 minutes, so they’ll either have plenty of time to work or there’ll be a finish, either of which is great for DFS.
This would be a perfect “swing fight” if it weren’t the main event, with -750 stoppage odds. I’ll have one or the other in all of my GPP lineups, with a lean to Garcia. While there’s a case for fading one or the other in cash games, I’m not confident enough in either to take a stand, so I’ll be stacking this one in order to lock in the ceiling from the winner.
The Easy Chalk
Donte Johnson ($9,200)
Donte Johnson competed a few months ago on the Contender Series, where I picked against him in his heavyweight bout. While I got the pick wrong, my prediction that Johnson would go down at least one weight class proved prescient, as he’s now making his debut in the UFC proper as a middleweight.
Given that Johnson comes into the fight with a 6-0 record at light heavyweight and heavyweight with six first round knockouts, it’s safe to say he’ll have plenty of power at 185 pounds. I worry somewhat about his speed and overall skillset in the more competitive division — but not against Sedrique Dumas ($7,000).
Dumas has somehow managed to hang around the UFC despite plenty of out-of-competition issues, including pulling out of a fight because he didn’t get his ankle monitor removed in time. He’s not much better once the door closes either, going 1-2-1 over his last four with two first-round knockout losses and a somewhat questionable no contest.
Plus, Dumas is a short-notice replacement in this fight, and he doesn’t strike me as the type of fighter to be training hard year-round. This is a perfect debut matchup for Johnson, who is -115 to pick up another first-round victory.
The Upside Play
Charles Radtke ($8,700)
Charles Radtke has a similar style to this week’s main event fighters. His last four UFC fights have all ended within the first minute of the second round and have all ended with somebody knocked out. He’s perfectly split those fights between two wins and two losses, but either way there’s been a decisive finish.
It’s also to see roughly where the line between fights he can beat and fighters he’ll lose to is. Both of the men to defeat him, Carlos Prates and Mike Mallott, are ranked fighters. Two of the three fighters he’s beaten are out of the promotion, with the third (Gilbert Urbina) likely to join them shortly thanks to his 1-3 promotional record.
He’s taking on Daniel Frunza ($7,500), whom I wasn’t especially impressed by on the Contender Series despite his win. Proving my point — particularly about his defensive limitations — he proceeded to get finished in the first round by Rhys McKee (1-5 UFC record) and dropped three times along the way.
“Chucky Buffalo” should have the durability to withstand the offense from Frunza long enough to send him to a similar fate, as Frunza certainly fits the mold of fighters Radtke has found success against. Radtke’s own lack of defensive responsibility makes him slightly risky, but the ceiling is high as well.
Updated on 11/11/25
The Value Play
Chang Ho Lee ($7,700)
The only men’s fight on the card favored to go to the judges is the bantamweight fight between Lee and Timmy Cuama ($8,500). Lee has seen somewhat significant line movement post-salary release, moving from a +114 underdog to -102 odds.
He’s also an excellent per-minute scoring option. He averages just under five significant strikes per minute and a bit over three takedowns per 15 minutes, despite a 33% takedown accuracy rate. He’s essentially a (very) poor man’s version of bantamweight champ Merab Dvalishvili, making up for his deficiencies via pace and cardio.
Cuamba is a big bantamweight who tends to wear down over the course of his appearances and also prefers to do his work on his feet. That makes him a solid matchup for Lee, who should be able to apply enough pressure to eventually break through with his grappling.
There are safer floor plays on the card in the form of every female underdog, but Lee balances that out with considerably more upside. At his price tag, that’s a risk I’ll be willing to take in plenty of my lineups.
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The Contrarian Choice
Montserrat Ruiz ($6,900)
“Conejo” is both the cheapest fighter on the slate and likely to come in with the lowest ownership — though Dumas will challenge for the latter — meaning an upset win from the Mexican strawweight would pay massive rewards for those courageous enough to roster her.
That in and of itself is a massive edge, as she’s “only” a +280 underdog. That works out to better than a 25% chance of winning. A 1-in-4 chance of only having to compete against 5% or so of the field is obviously a great deal, particularly with all of the salary it frees up.
I also don’t think she should be such a heavy underdog. She’s a one-trick pony with massive holes in her game, but that’s one more trick than Alice Ardelean ($9,300) brings to the table. Ardelean is more known as a social media influencer who uses her fight career to drive traffic to her other ventures and has a 1-2 UFC record.
While Ruiz is 1-3 in the promotion, she faced tougher competition, and there’s also a chance she’s shored up some of her weaknesses in her nearly two years away from competition. She could certainly suffer another knockout loss, but the reward for rostering her is high enough that I’ll be far over the field in my exposure.
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The Swing Fight
Themba Gorimbo ($8,400) vs. Jeremiah Wells ($7,800)
It will be the first fight in 20 months for Jeremiah Wells, which might be the biggest reason I’m viewing this as a “swing fight” rather than a clear underdog spot.
Wells is 4-2 in the UFC, with at least 96 DraftKings points in each of his wins. He has massive power (two KO wins) and is an elite grappler, with his other two wins coming via first-round submission and dominant grappling (six takedowns and over 11 minutes of control time). His two losses also could’ve both gone his way. One was a split decision that more than 80% of fans and media members scored for Wells. The other was a fight he dominated for two rounds before getting submitted in the third round.
Gorimbo is also 4-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming via submission. The more recent of the two came against Vicente Luque, who has just one other win in his last seven outings. The grappling defense is a massive hole for Gorimbo, making this a tough spot for him.
Unless the 39-year-old Wells has taken a step back since he last fought in 2023. That’s entirely possible, especially given the history of injuries that’s precluded him from making it to the cage recently. Gorimbo is big and hits hard, which might be enough if Wells isn’t the fighter he once was.
For that reason, I’m hedging my heavy Wells exposure with a bit of Gorimbo, as a win for the favorite likely comes via knockout, producing a big score. I’ll have far more of the underdog, but I want to cover my bases.
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Pictured: Steve Garcia
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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