We’ve got one more Apex card before UFC 319 next week, this time featuring a middleweight main event between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Dolidze.
The 12-fight card starts at 4:00 p.m. ET, with the entire event streaming on ESPN+.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Anthony Hernandez ($8,700) vs. Roman Dolidze ($7,500)
In a suddenly crowded middleweight division, Anthony Hernandez probably needs two more wins before he’s realistically in the title conversation. He’s better than a -300 favorite to get the first of those this Saturday, against fellow grappler Roman Dolidze.
While both men do their best work via grappling, their styles are radically different. Dolidze is a highly technical worker on the ground and a former ADCC qualifier. While the bulk of his UFC wins have come via knockout, most of those have relied on winning grappling exchanges to get into dominant positions on the ground and then finishing the fight with strikes.
He’s a better technical grappler than Anthony Hernandez, but that might not matter. “Fluffy” relies on a rather straightforward attack but makes it work due to his suffocating pace. He averages more than six takedowns per 15 minutes despite a sub-50% success rate, which works out to just under 14 takedown attempts per 15 minutes.
Hernandez was able to keep up that pace and pressure in his first five-round UFC fight, picking up a fifth-round stoppage. While Dolidze is dangerous early, he’s unlikely to be able to match the continuous pressure of Hernandez.
That five-round fight from Fluffy was good for 192 DraftKings points, one of the best fantasy scores ever. He could challenge that mark again, making him a borderline lock in DFS.
Dolidze will be dangerous earlier with his superior power, so I want some exposure to him. For cash games there aren’t many better options, so I’ll also be stacking this fight there effectively by default.
The Easy Chalk
Elijah Smith ($9,300)
With only two favorites on the card inside of -200 odds (both at -180) and DraftKings’ refusal to give multiple fighters the same price tag, we’re in a situation where the heavy favorites are largely underpriced based on their moneyline and finishing odds.
That’s especially true for Elijah Smith, who brings an 8-1 pro record at just 22 years old into his bout against Toshiomi Kazama ($6,900) on Saturday. Kazama is 1-2 in the UFC with two knockout losses and was also knocked down in his lone win before pulling off the submission victory.
He’s arguably a step down in competition for Smith, who faced undefeated (at the time) City Kickboxing prospect Aaron Tau on the Contender Series. Smith won that fight, and his UFC debut, via decision, but picked up eight takedowns combined between the two fights.
This is the perfect opportunity for Smith to pick up his first UFC stoppage, and he has +120 odds of winning in the first round. If the fight gets extended, he should pile up enough takedowns to still pay off his price tag.
While there are plenty of solid options in the $9,000 range, Smith is my favorite combination of upside and safety.
The Upside Plays
Julius Walker ($9,400)
“Juice Box” is the only fighter on the card with better first-round odds than Smith, checking in as a ridiculous -150 favorite to win this one in the very first round.
That’s mostly due to his opponent, Rafael Cerqueira ($6,800). The Brazilian is 0-2 in the UFC, with two knockout losses that lasted around three minutes combined. He’s crumpled nearly immediately when being hit in those fights, a bad sign when competing in the heavier divisions.
Walker is 0-1 in the UFC but lost a split decision to Alonzo Menfield as a last-minute call-up in February. Prior to that, he was 6-0 as a pro, with each of his wins coming in the first two rounds. Cerqueira is a huge step down from Menfield, who has a 10-5 UFC record.
Walker is a riskier option than Smith, however. Cerqueira was 11-0 with eight knockouts prior to his chin failing him in the UFC. He’s a much better hammer than nail, but if he can find the button against the unproven Walker, the upset is a distinct possibility.
For that reason, I’m prioritizing Smith and some cheaper fighters in cash games, but Walker is an excellent GPP play.
Updated on 12/5/25
The Value Plays
Eryk Anders ($7,000)
This is a terrible slate for value, as the aforementioned lack of closely lined fights means most of the underdogs are somewhat overpriced relative to their win equity. That holds true for Anders, who is a roughly +400 underdog against Christian Leroy Duncan ($9,200).
However, this fight is slightly favored to go all 15 minutes, and Anders has plenty of grappling upside. He’s landed just under two takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC and regularly competes in grappling competitions.
That makes him a tough matchup for Duncan, who was taken down four times by the only other grappler he’s fought in the UFC. “CLD” is a former basketball player who prefers to use his explosiveness to strike at range, and this fight is in the tight confines of the UFC Apex center.
Duncan’s power could be a problem for Anders, who has been knocked down in each of his last three fights. He’s 2-1 in those contests, though, with the loss coming via decision.
If he can go all 15 minutes, he’ll almost certainly pay off his price tag. If he can pull off an upset, he’ll smash it, making him a solid salary-saver in all contest types.
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The Contrarian Choice
Steve Erceg ($8,900)
Former title challenger Steve Erceg will likely have the lowest ownership of the high-end options on Saturday’s slate, but I view that as a mistake.
After going 0-3 against former champions or title challengers, he now gets Ode Osborne ($7,300) as a late replacement opponent. Osborne is 5-6 in the UFC and took this fight on just about 10 days notice.
While Erceg is thought of as primarily a striker by UFC fans, the bulk of his pro wins have come via submission. He was a national champion wrestler in his native Australia and should look to get back to his grappling roots against an opponent in Osborne who has struggled on the ground.
Especially since Erceg has dropped three straight and needs a win far more than an exciting fight. The path of least resistance is through takedowns. That wouldn’t be the most exciting style of fight, but it would be solid for DFS purposes.
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The Swing Fight
Cody Brundage ($8,200) vs. Eric McConico ($8,000)
The UFC added this bout to the card on fight week, with neither fighter booked for a fight previously. That raises serious questions about either man’s ability to fight for 15 minutes on Saturday.
Especially considering that wasn’t their MO even with a full fight camp. Brundage has gone to just two decisions in his UFC career, a span of 12 fights. McConico was knocked out in his UFC debut (also on short notice), after going 9-2-1 as a pro with just two decisions previously.
Brundage is the rightful favorite here, a high-level wrestler with a huge experience edge over a 35-year-old journeyman in McConico. He’s also fairly fragile, more than his one knockout loss would imply.
Three of Brundage’s last five fights have ended due to fouls from his opponents, and arguably each of them was on the way to being a KO loss for Brundage. The record doesn’t really reflect how much damage he’s taken, nor how bad he’s looked when being hit.
Either way, this fight is favored to go under the 1.5 round prop, so we likely get fireworks from one side or the other. I’m leaning Brundage, but I’m torn enough to mix up my exposure in GPPs — and avoid it entirely in cash games.
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Pictured: Anthony Hernandez
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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