We’re back at the Apex after a week off, with an 11 10-fight card starting at 6:30 p.m. ET. The main event features top-five flyweights Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber meeting in a five-round fight.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Erin Blanchfield ($9,100) vs. Maycee Barber ($7,100)
My initial reaction to the betting line — and by extension DFS salaries — for this fight was that it was a bit too wide. Both women have just two losses in their careers, with Barber’s coming in a fight where she tore her ACL and her return fight against future champion Alexa Grasso.
However, the more I dig in, the more I like Blannhfield in this matchup. This is the first five-round fight for Barber, while Blanchfield has competed in consecutive five-round contests. That’s a huge edge, and we saw how Blanchfield adjusted her game plan in her second five-round fight.
She coasted through the first two rounds against Rose Namajunas before turning it on down the stretch, dominating the final three rounds of the contest. That was a big change relative to her first attempt, where she was unable to get anything going early and tired late.
Plus, Blanchfield is an elite grappler, which is Barber’s weakness. Her 53% takedown defense is well below average, and she’s spent plenty of time stuck in bottom position against lesser opponents. Blanchfield will likely capitalize on extended trips to the mat, making this a favorable stylistic booking for the favorite.
This fight is very likely to go long, though, making this a solid cash game stack. Barber should score well when this fight is on the feet due to her high striking output and Blanchfield’s limited striking defense. For GPPs, I’ll be playing Blanchfield nearly exclusively, though.
Update: Maycee Barber missed the flyweight limit by half of a pound. The fight is still on, but the news increases my confidence in Blanchfield.
The Easy Chalk
Zach Reese ($9,200)
It’s a strange slate in that the most expensive fighters aren’t nearly as heavy favorites as we typically see — but there are some obvious values on the slate that make them easy to afford. How you handle the top of the salary range likely determines your outcome this week, and leaving significant salary on the board is an excellent way to reduce overall ownership on a small slate.
However, Reese at least has the upside of a typical $9,000 fighter, if not the same level of safety. He’s a solid -230 favorite against Dusko Todorovic ($7,000), but not exactly a lock. The fight is -900 to end in a finish, though, so a win by Reese should come with a big score.
Four of Reese’s five fights in the UFC (counting the Contender Series) have ended in Round 1. In his decision win, he landed five takedowns, which was good enough for a score of 100+ on DraftKings.
Plus, it’s a solid matchup against Todorovic, who is 3-5 in the UFC. Those three wins came against fighters who went a combined 3-14 in the UFC and have all since been released. Todorovic has also taken some bad knockout losses, which is encouraging for the powerful Reese.
Outside of his likely popularity, it’s hard to see a reason not to play Reese given the lack of other options. Just be sure to build around him wisely for GPPs, as the small slate means staying unique is extra important.
The Upside Play
Andreas Gustafsson ($8,400)
I can’t believe we’re not being asked to pay considerably more for Gustafsson for his fight against Trevin Giles ($7,800). Sure, it’s the UFC debut for “Bane,” but he’s a very strong prospect, picking up a knockout win on the Contender Series last fall.
He’s an extremely powerful and aggressive striker with ten of his 11 pro wins by finish, including eight knockouts. Giles is on a three-fight losing streak, with three KO losses in his last seven fights overall. That type of damage adds up over time, and it’s hard to see his chin improved at this point.
Gustafsson also has some grappling ability and will probably rack up some takedowns if he doesn’t find an early stoppage. That gives him upside no matter how long this fight takes — but I don’t anticipate him needing the full 15 minutes.
I should also note that Giles is stepping in on short notice after Gustafsson’s original opponent, Jeremiah Wells, pulled out. The deck was already somewhat stacked against him, but the lack of training camp doesn’t do him any favors.
Update: Gustafsson’s fight with Giles has been cancelled due to a Giles injury.
Updated on 12/5/25
The Value Plays
Billy Ray Goff ($8,300)
While Goff is priced as a favorite for this fight, an opponent switch means he’s suddenly a much larger favorite than his salary would suggest. Both his opponent and Ramiz Brahimaj’s ($6,700) original opponent couldn’t make the fight, so instead Goff and Brahimaj are fighting each other.
Goff moved from a slight favorite originally to the heaviest favorite on the card with the new opponent, making him a fairly obvious play.
I’m not quite as confident as the market in Goff, so I’ll likely be taking a shot or two on Brahimaj for tournaments. However, there’s no reason to pass up Goff in cash games. He should be the most expensive fighter on the slate, but he’s barely priced as a favorite.
Jafel Filho ($7,600)
My favorite actual cheap value play this week is Filho, who’s taking on Allan Nascimento ($8,600) in an all-Brazil flyweight fight.
I’ve been big on Filho since his UFC debut. He stepped in on short notice to take on the undefeated Mohamed Mokaev and had Mokaev dead to rights with a deep kneebar in the third round. Mokaev survived and went on to finish off the gassed Filho afterwards, but it was an incredibly impressive performance.
Since then, “Pastor” has won two straight fights by first-round submission and defeated #3 flyweight Amir Albazi in a grappling match. Nascimento is also 2-1 following a close loss in his debut but hasn’t competed in more than two years due to a variety of injuries and illnesses.
Nascimento also has a career 16% takedown defense in the UFC, making this an extremely bad stylistic matchup. At worst this fight should be a pick ’em, but I’d argue Filho is the rightful favorite. That makes him a steal at $7,600.
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The Contrarian Choice
Michael Aswell ($6,800)
I’m going way off the board with my contrarian choice this week. Aswell likely comes in as the slate’s lowest-owned fighter, since he’s taking the fight on very short notice and up a weight class against Bolaji Oki ($8,900).
Oki, like Goff, is underpriced based on his betting odds due to a change in opponents. He’s also 1-1 in the UFC, with his win coming via split decision. He also lost a split decision on the Contender Series due to the grappling of Bogdan Grad but is an extremely talented and dangerous striker.
His only other career loss came to grappling ace and recent UFC addition Yadier DelValle, who he also took to a decision. Oki is likely to keep this one standing, which could play right into Aswell’s hands.
It’s obviously a long shot, but “The Texas Kid” is just 24 and has been in close fights against UFC-level competition already. He could’ve improved enough since we last saw him to pull off the upset here.
The Swing Fight
Mateusz Gamrot ($8,500) vs. Ludovit Klein ($7,800)
I covered this fight in detail in my full betting preview of the fight. One of the conclusions I came to is that the potential outcomes here are fairly binary. Either Klein does damage on the feet, scoring at least a knockdown but probably a knockout, or Gamrot puts on another grappling clinic.
Each of those outcomes would lead to a big score from the eventual winner, even without a finish. Gamrot averages more than five takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, which goes a long way to boosting his potential scores.
Klein only has two knockout victories in the UFC, but he’s landed three other knockdowns. With each of those scoring ten points, that would also boost his score considerably. That’s pretty likely if he’s able to win the fight, since Gamrot has been dropped four times in his 10 UFC fights.
While I’m personally leaning pretty heavily towards the Polish favorite, both fighters are solid options here. The long odds of a stoppage should also help keep ownership down — which is a huge consideration on an 11-fight slate.
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Pictured: Erin Blanchfield
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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