We’ve got a “BMF” title fight on our hands this weekend, with reigning champion Max Holloway taking on Charles Oliveira in a rematch ten years in the making. The 13-fight card goes down at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
As is the new normal, the slate locks at 5:00 PM ET with the start of the preliminary card.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Max Holloway ($8,800) vs. Charles Oliveira ($7,400)
I have no idea what the UFC record for “longest time between rematches” is, but the decade-plus gap between the first meeting of Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira has to be among the leaders. Their original fight in August of 2015 came well before either were household names, and it ended unceremoniously with a throat injury to Oliveira.
Between the strange ending and the time elapsed, there’s not much to be learned from analyzing that fight. Since then, both men have become world champions, set various UFC records, and cemented their places as surefire hall of fame fighters. Oliveira holds the all-time record for UFC finishes by submission wins, while Holloway has a 1,300+ lead on the #2 fighter in career significant strikes.
That encapsulates fairly well the binary nature of this fight, with Holloway likely to outpace Oliveira on the feet, while “Do Bronx” gets the better of grappling exchanges. The reason Holloway is so expensive is that he’s historically done a great job of keeping fights standing, especially in the second half of his career.
“Blessed” is also unlikely to fall for Oliveira’s trick of playing possum, where he takes a shot and falls to his back intentionally in hopes of forcing the grappling issue. Holloway’s volume striking also means he can rack up big DFS totals without a finish, which gives him multiple paths to the optimal lineup.
Given the relative dearth of expensive fighters I want to play and the corresponding abundance of value options, I’ll be loading up on Holloway for GPPs. This one is also a solid cash game stack, as I’d hate to be left with no Oliveira if he is able to pull off an upset.
The Easy Chalk
Donte Johnson ($9,500)
One of the two pricey fighters I’m interested in this week is Donte Johnson. Johnson made his way to the UFC via the Contender Series, where he took a short-notice fight at heavyweight and won in just 64 seconds. Then he returned to his natural middleweight and finished Sedriques Dumas in the second round in November.
He gets another friendly matchup in Cody Brundage ($6,700), who is 5-7-1-1 (you read that right) in the UFC. That draw was originally ruled a loss, the no contest came during a fight where he was on the verge of being knocked out, and one of his five wins was via disqualification while Brundage was being dominated. He arguably should be 4-10-1 in his 15 fights with the promotion.
He was also knocked out just 5 weeks ago, and required special dispensation from a doctor to even be allowed to take this fight on somewhat short notice. My guess is the UFC was planning on releasing him but offered him one more chance if he stepped up to replace Johnson’s original opponent.
None of that is a good sign for Brundage, and Johnson is a slight favorite for a first-round finish. I see no reason not to roster him in as many lineups as possible.
The Upside Play
Luke Fernandez ($8,900)
The other fighter near the top of the salary scale I plan on rostering a ton of is Luke Fernandez. Fernandez is making his UFC debut this weekend, fresh off his own appearance on the 2025 season of the Contender Series. He needed just 15 seconds in that fight to pick up a knockout.
We obviously didn’t learn much from that experience, but I detailed his extensive accomplishments in my breakdown of that fight. He’s now 12-0 combined as a pro and amateur MMA fighter, and he held the CFFC amateur and pro light heavyweight titles. He also won their professional grappling championship with a win over former UFC fighter Phil Hawes.
That’s about as credentialed as one can be coming into a UFC debut, where he’s taking on Rodolfo Bellato. Bellato has a Brundage-esque 1-1-1-1 UFC record, and is winless in his last three contests. He’s been knocked out twice as a pro, has a negative striking differential, and typically relies on his grappling. That’s unlikely to be an option for Fernandez, who, besides his other listed accomplishments, was also a collegiate wrestler at D3 Elizabethtown College.
That wrestling background gives him a path to a big score even without a quick finish, making him one of the best DFS options on the slate. Given his relative inexperience at the UFC level, he’s less safe than Johnson, but he is still fairly unlikely to disappoint.
Updated on 3/6/26
The Value Play
Diyar Nurgozhay ($7,200)
I didn’t really spend much time looking into the fight between Nurgozhay and Rafael Tobias ($9,000) this week. However, there was some extremely notable line movement that caught my eye.
Nurgozhay opened the week at +230 odds on DraftKings, but he is now just +150 there and at even shorter odds on other platforms. That’s fairly suspicious for a fighter who went 0-2 in the UFC with two submission losses and taking on a 14-1 opponent.
We’ve seen line movement like this in the past reveal potential inside information about preexisting injuries or other issues with a fighter, so it’s worth taking note of here. At worst, Nurgozhay is a $7,200 fighter with $7,700 fighter odds. At best, something is up with Tobias and Nurgozhay gets an easy victory.
We’ve also seen fights with suspicious movement cancelled at the last minute, so exercise caution and be ready to make some last-minute lineup pivots if needed. Between the elevated cancellation risk and the -450 odds this one ends inside the distance, he’s not a safe pick by any stretch, but he could be a slate-breaking pick.
Reinier de Ridder ($7,000)
The more traditional value play on this card comes courtesy of co-main event fighter Reinier de Ridder, who is taking on Caio Borralho ($9,200). Both men are coming off their first UFC losses last fall in what could have been title eliminators, and they are now looking to climb back into the championship picture.
While the line movement toward RDR is nowhere near as drastic as for Nurgozhay, he’s gone from a +250 underdog to +215 or so this week. Crucially, this is also one of just two fights on the card favored to go the distance, which gives him a solid floor.
I did a full betting preview of this fight, and my takeaway was that de Ridder is so dominant in one area (grappling) that he never truly deserves to be this much of an underdog. He also has some massive flaws (cardio, striking defense) that make him an uncomfortable favorite, but he’s a near auto-play at this price point.
Plus, his disappointing performance in his last fight seemed to be a result of his frenetic schedule, where five fights and five weight cuts caused his body to fail him. He’s an absurdly large middleweight, so cutting that much weight seemed to take a toll on his gas tank. He was dominating Brendan Allen in the first round, but he had nothing left after that and eventually declined to come out for Round 5.
With this fight being just three rounds and de Ridder having six months off, he should be much closer to top form. That gives him a great chance to pull off an upset or at the very least pick up some takedowns and provide a solid DFS score. He’s my favorite budget option for cash games.
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The Contrarian Choice
Brunno Ferreira ($7,600)
We’ve got another rematch on the UFC 326 card, with Brunno “The Hulk” Ferreira taking on the man against whom he made his UFC debut, Gregory Rodrigues ($8,600). That fight was a short-notice call up for Ferreira, and he starched Rodrigues in under a round.
He’s also the (slightly) younger man, which makes it surprising that he’s an underdog in a fight against an opponent he’s already beaten, especially since he has a full camp this time. He’s a stylistic nightmare for Rodrigues, who has a “Defense optional” striking style. Rodrigues can overwhelm some opponents with his power, but Ferreira is more durable and powerful.
That would normally lead to “Robocop” switching to his grappling, but that also might not be an option here. Ferreira was a national Judo champion, and he has submitted two of his last three opponents. Ferreira even wins in terms of “MMA math,” as he submitted Armen Petrosyan, who has a decision win over Rodrigues.
I don’t understand the betting line here at all, so I’ll be loading up on Ferreira (hopefully at low ownership) for DFS.
The Swing Fight
Michael Johnson ($8,200) vs. Drew Dober ($8,000)
With just one decision in his last nine fights (and that decision resulting in a big score for his opponent) Drew Dober is the human embodiment of a swing fight. He’s a classic “get or get got” fighter, with a 14-11 record across his 25 UFC fights. His once-granite chin has begun to let him down, with three of his four knockout losses coming in his last six appearances.
This time, he gets another 25+ UFC fight veteran in Michael Johnson. Johnson has been in the UFC since 2010 and could have the longest winning streak of his career should he get past Dober on Saturday. Johnson has a reputation as a fighter who can beat or lose to anyone, which at this point is well deserved.
This fight is a whopping -900 to end in a finish and also has the closest moneyline odds on the slate, making it a fairly obvious swing fight choice. Despite his longer career, Johnson is only about two years older and has fewer knockout losses, so I’ll be leaning slightly his way. However, I’m trying to get as much exposure to this fight as I can in GPPs.
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Pictured: Max Holloway
Photo Credit: Imagn
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