One of the most anticipated fights on the calendar is here, as Dricus Du Plessis defends his middleweight title against Khamzat Chimaev. Chimaev has been dubbed a future champion for many years and finally has the chance to make good on his promise.
The 12-fight card starts at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the prelims on ESPN and the main card at 10:00 on ESPN+ PPV.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Khamzat Chimaev ($8,900) vs. Dricus Du Plessis ($7,300)
UFC 319 is one of the most highly anticipated fights of the year, featuring the improbable champion Dricus Du Plessis defending his belt against the wrecking ball that is Khamzat Chimaev.
Du Plessis has an extremely awkward style, throwing punches from weird angles, frequently falling off balance, and winning through force of will and physicality more than technical brilliance. That’s a stark contrast to Chimaev, an elite grappler who also dominates opponents with his athleticism.
This fight feels fairly binary, in that Chimaev could easily steamroll DDP early, as the champion has yet to face a grappler as fearsome as Chimaev. “Borz” has finished six of his eight UFC wins, most recently choking/cranking Robert Whittaker’s jaw so hard that three of Whittaker’s teeth shattered.
On the other hand, if Du Plessis can survive the early storm, he should pull away from a fatigued Chimaev. In Chimaev’s two previous decisions, he faded badly in the final rounds — and those were just three-round fights. While Du Plessis looks fatigued at times, he’s been dangerous well into the championship rounds, including a fourth-round finish of Israel Adesanya.
I want to be well above the market on the champion here, as I’m concerned that Chimaev’s physical domination won’t work as well on the larger opponent. I’ll still have some exposure to Chimaev, of course, but Du Plessis is my main target.
I’ll also be stacking this in cash games, as a DDP win likely means Chimaev still scores some points early on, plus I want to cover my bases if Chimaev lives up to his favoritism here.
The Easy Chalk
Chase Hooper ($9,300)
A pair of UFC debutantes were late additions to the UFC 319 card, with even stronger odds than Chase Hooper. We’ll touch on one of those later, but for my money, Hooper is the best combination of safety and upside relative to his price at the high end.
Chase “The Dream” Hooper is still just 25 and already has 11 UFC fights under his belt. A teenage grappling prodigy, he’s made huge improvements in his striking over the past few years, while continuing to add muscle and fill in his 6’1″ frame.
While his recent results aren’t especially impressive on paper — his last two wins came against fighters on the wrong side of 40 — he’s won five straight with three finishes and keeps getting better each fight. The same can’t be said for Alexander Hernandez ($6,900), a solidly average fighter with an 8-7 UFC record who is likely fully developed at 32.
Hooper brings plenty of takedown upside and is even money to win inside the distance. Plus, he lands strikes at a reasonably high clip as well, giving him a few different paths to a high score.
The Upside Plays
Baisangur Susurkaev ($9,600)
One of those UFC debutantes is Chimaev’s training partner and countryman, Baisangur Susrkaev. Susurkaev picked up the only stoppage on episode one of the Contender Series — an event that took place just four days before UFC 319.
I predicted that “Hunter” would pick up a stoppage on Tuesday, and it seems likely he gets another on Saturday. He’s taking on Eric Nolan ($6,600), an 8-3 welterweight who’s stepping up a weight class on short notice and is likely a much easier opponent than the one Baysangur had on Tuesday.
Considering the Chechen absorbed just seven strikes during his three-minute fight, that was effectively the final sparring session before his UFC319 bout, and he should be fully healthy and ready to go this weekend.
Another quick stoppage is extremely likely, and if he gets it done in the first minute, it could break the slate.
Updated on 12/5/25
The Value Plays
Dione Barbosa ($7,400)
We’ve had a few tough weeks in terms of cash game floor plays, but we have some fairly solid choices this time around. My favorite is Barbosa, who is taking on Karine Silva ($8,800) in a women’s flyweight match.
This is actually a rematch of a 2019 fight, in which Barbosa took a unanimous decision over a much more experienced Silva. Both women are primarily grapplers but Barbosa is the more credentialed one — she’s a seven-time Brazilian national Judo champion and also holds a BJJ black belt.
Silva is the more well-rounded MMA fighter, but that doesn’t matter if this one is contested primarily on the mats. Plus, she has four of her five UFC wins via submission, a method that’s a long shot against Barbosa.
More importantly, this fight is -240 to go the distance, so she’s likely to have the full 25 minutes to work. That’s enough at her price tag, while a win would obviously be a huge boost.
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The Contrarian Choice
Alibi Idiris ($9,400)
While I typically try to target cheap, low-owned fighters in this spot, one of the more contrarian options this week is at the high end of the salary scale.
Alibi Idiris is fighting Joseph Morales ($6,800) for the TUF season 33 flyweight championship on the UFC 319 undercard. Prior to his two exhibition bouts on the card, Idiris went 10-0 in his native Kazakhstan with six finishes. He also finished one of his two fights on TUF, picking up a TKO in his semi-final matchup.
Morales needed a split decision to make his way to the finale, where he’ll look to return to the UFC after going 1-2 for the promotion from 2017-2018. Overall, he was the less impressive fighter on the show, which is reflected in his +350 odds
Idiris can grapple and is also somewhat likely to pick up a finish but has fairly low ownership due to his lack of name recognition with UFC fans. For that reason, he’s an interesting pivot at the top of the salary scale.
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The Swing Fight
Michal Oleksiejczuk ($9,000) vs. Gerald Meerschart ($7,200)
I used the phrase “binary fight” to describe the main event, but that term also applies to the middleweight prelim fight. While this one isn’t an early/late split, it’s a classic striker vs. grappler match.
The striker is Michal Oleksiejczuk, who is 8-7 in the UFC with seven knockout victories and five submission losses. Meerschart is 12-11 in the promotion, with 11 submission wins and four knockout losses.
Both men should be able to finish this one quickly if they can force the fight to their preferred area, as both have huge holes in the area of the game where their opponent is strong.
I’m personally going to be well above the field on the underdog Meerschaert. Oleksiejczuk has very poor 48% takedown defense, with his only recent wins coming against fighters who had no interest in grappling him.
However, I want him in some of my lineups as well. Meerschaert is 37 with questionable durability, and one shot from the Polish favorite could quickly end his night.
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Pictured: Khamzat Chimaev
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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