Change is hard.
Regardless of how much we try to prepare for it, adjusting to anything new is often easier said than done.
Because it’s human nature to be a bit resistant to change, we’re here to help you through this transition period from NBA to MLB DFS – check out Part One of the series here. Personally, I believe that finding something familiar to relate to greatly increases my ability to adapt to change.
So, despite the many differences between the two games, I’ll do my best to relate them back to concepts you’re likely already familiar with from NBA DFS.
With that said, let’s get to it.
Variance
Ah, variance. The inevitable explanation for how your team performed (or perhaps didn’t perform) in every DFS contest. While it is obviously something that does occur in sports, we tend to use it as a catch-all at times.
Rostered a player that missed value for the first time in a week? Variance.
All three of your punt plays went off for career games? Variance.
We use it to explain many of the ups and downs encountered in DFS and expect it to a degree in all sports, but how does MLB compare to NBA?
How NBA and MLB Differ
When we pay up for top-tier talent in NBA DFS, we often do so in an attempt to reduce the amount of variance we’re inviting into our lineup. Along with high ceilings, expensive NBA players will generally carry a high floor, thus reducing the range of expected outcomes (or variance). If you’re expecting to throw money at positional players in MLB and find those comparable floors, think again.
At it’s heart, baseball is inherently a game of failures. We know that even the best positional players will fail far more often than they succeed. Understanding this fact will not only help you when constructing your lineups, it’ll help you keep your sanity over the course of a season (maybe).
Whereas paying up for LeBron James may give you the warm fuzzies due to his usual floor of 40 or so DraftKings (DK) points, paying up for Mike Trout may leave you banging your head against a wall when he goes 0-4 two or three times a week.
You’ll fight variance everyday in MLB, but luckily, there are some positions that are a bit less prone to it, as we’ll see below.
How MLB and DFS are Similar
So just as we’ve established that baseball is inherently more variable than NBA, I’m going to try to tell you there are similarities? Yes, yes I am.
If you just can’t handle the thought of not having a LeBron or Russell Westbrook to latch onto, you might want to look towards the upper tier of pitching options.
Whereas elite positional players may have a big game once every three days, in general, we can expect far greater returns from the premium pitching options.
A quick data pull from our Trends tool will help demonstrate the difference in consistency we can expect from the top-priced hitters and pitchers, as compared to premium players in the NBA.
What we’re looking at here is the Consistency ratings between the respective groups. As we can see, premium priced pitchers and NBA players compare very well. If you’re looking for the stability of a LeBron, paying up for an elite pitcher is never a bad option.
Schedule
NBA and MLB are both daily games in the truest sense, i.e. they have games essentially every day that they are in season. Where NFL, PGA or NASCAR may give you all week to prep and research, NBA and MLB (among other sports) require you to process the full slate in a day’s time.
How NBA and MLB Differ
The biggest difference you’ll notice right away will be how lineups are handled for that day’s game. In general, MLB teams will have confirmed their lineups prior to lock for the day. That’s not to say you won’t have an occasional late scratch, but the differences between NBA are vast.
If you’re sick of scrambling to adjust to every hangnail and case of the sniffles that cause your average NBA player to sit out a game, you’ll likely be pleasantly surprised with the change of pace in MLB.
Another difference that should grab your attention will be the size of an average day’s slate of games. While the NBA has done a better job of providing us with a more balanced schedule recently, we still experience more 2-4 game slates than many would prefer. With every team in action multiple days per week, those worries won’t likely arise often in MLB.
How MLB and DFS are Similar
As I touched on above, MLB and NBA DFS are both a real grind. You’ll have games seven days a week. For those that have been playing NBA, you’ve likely worked out a schedule to handle the demands of such a schedule.
As our subscribers are likely already aware, utilizing our Player Models and Trends are a great way to handle the demands of the daily research.
Data, Data… and More Data
If you’re not a numbers person, MLB DFS might have a bit more of a learning curve than certain other DFS sports. Champions of analytics dating back far before the times of DFS, the information is plentiful in MLB and it’ll be up to you to differentiate between what’s useful and what’s just noise.
How NBA and MLB Differ
What should stand out even more than the vast amount of data available surrounding MLB, is the wide array of variables included.
While we may give slight consideration to a team playing in the elevation of Denver in the NBA, for the most part, we really don’t care what arena a team will be playing in. NBA courts are the same dimension, the hoop is the same height and the three-point line the same distance. In MLB, you’ll have to account for the different variables surrounding every ballpark. Some will lend themselves better to pitchers, some to hitters and some to only certain profiles of hitters. To help illustrate this, let’s look at both the best and worst ballpark for hitters over the past two years.
There’s not any additional filters. That’s just based on the park itself. Yeah, it’s important.
Everyone, in general, has the same opportunity in MLB. They’ll get their four or five at-bats, so the data becomes even more important than in the NBA, where certain players can hit value based on just playing time alone.
Get to know terms like ISO, wOBA, xFIP, SIERA among others. Give this article a read to get started on some of the more important metrics to consider when beginning your research.
How MLB and DFS are Similar
Splits are huge in MLB research, and though not a perfect match, I think they relate well to our updated NBA Opponent Plus/Minus metric.
Whether we’re looking at how stretch fours play against the Sacramento Kings or how well left-handed pull hitters perform at Yankee Stadium, properly understanding matchups – looking deeper than just the fantasy points allowed to a position, etc – can give you an edge.
Role Changes
Exploiting changes in role and price are integral parts of finding success in DFS. And while they may seem quite different on the surface, role changes in MLB and NBA DFS are actually fairly comparable.
How NBA and MLB Differ
Whereas role changes generally occur in the NBA when a player is out with injury, we’ll see constant changes in role for MLB players based on matchup or injury.
You’ll need to be aware of platoons at positions and how they affect the players around them – both statistically and role-wise – when they are both in and out of the lineup. Managers may have different lineup combinations based upon a left-handed pitcher being on the mound, which can vault a seven-hole hitter up to the two spot or vice-versa.
While we might see less of a fringe NBA player if a matchup is really bad, you won’t often see a core player benched because they may be in an unfavorable matchup. In general, we’re far less apt to see an NBA player benched because of a matchup than we are to see an MLB player be given a day off because they don’t perform well under certain conditions.
How MLB and DFS are Similar
Going to back to the point regarding exploiting a player’s role, I think there is some very common ground between the two sports here.
Consider how the usage rate may rise for Derrick Rose when Jimmy Butler sits. From an MLB perspective, we can look to the player who is moved up from the seven-hole to the two-spot. Their role has improved dramatically, as they’re in a better position to score runs, get better quality pitches to hit due the strength of the lineup behind them, and have a better chance at squeezing in an extra at bat.
Think of all of the occasions you’ve checked the on/off court splits for players to see how they’re performing when someone is expected to sit. Role – and price – once again are near the top of things you need to consider when constructing your lineup.
Conclusion
We’re really just scratching the surface here, but hopefully this is enough to get you started on your path to transitioning from NBA to MLB. If you haven’t, now is a great time to begin playing around with our MLB Trends tool in preparation for the season. Prepping and beginning your research early will allow you to make a far more seamless transition between the sports when the time comes.
Good luck this season!
