The 49ers and Seahawks match up for the Thanksgiving nightcap. The 49ers are listed as 7-point road favorites, while the total sits at 44 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your DFS lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
To no one’s surprise, Christian McCaffrey is the highest-priced player on this showdown slate. He’s topped 20 DraftKings points in four straight contests and boasts one of the strongest floor/ceiling combinations of any player in football.
Seattle has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs, with a heavy dose of them coming through the air. McCaffrey is the top option on the slate to no surprise, with the highest median projection by over three points.
Brock Purdy comes next, and he just diced up the Tampa Bay defense. He completed 21 of 25 passes for 333 yards and three touchdowns, totaling 29.72 DraftKings points.
Seattle plays a heavy dose of zone coverage, which bodes well for Purdy. Against Seattle last season, Purdy averaged 9.8 yards per attempt with five touchdowns. He’s a strong play in all formats.
Brandon Aiyuk was very efficient with his touches last week, turning six targets into 29.6 DraftKings points. Aiyuk has dominated against zone coverage, but Seattle has been strong against opposing receivers. This is a strength on strength, and my gut is to side with the offensive side on the ball.
Now, with pricing included, Aiyuk is very expensive, and I prefer Purdy and Geno Smith, who are priced similarly. Smith is battling an elbow injury, but he’s expected to suit up. This matchup isn’t ideal, with San Francisco boasting the fourth-highest pressure rate in the league. Under pressure, Smith has averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt.
If he were to be ruled out, Drew Lock would be thrust into viability. I wouldn’t be too interested, as Lock was priced up for the situation where Smith misses.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
DK Metcalf is currently questionable with a toe injury, as he missed Tuesday’s practice. It’s unclear if there’s any legitimate concern for his availability on Thursday night.
I’m expecting Metcalf to suit up and be a full go. San Francisco has allowed a lot of volume to perimeter receivers, where Metcalf plays 87% of his snaps, Metcalf’s outlook is obviously impacted by the ability of Geno Smith. However, Metcalf has a 27% target share and 48% air yards share, and he’s the top option in Seattle’s passing game.
Kenneth Walker III is expected to miss this contest, which sets up Zach Charbonnet to be Seattle’s lead back. The matchup isn’t too appealing, with San Francisco allowing the eighth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing running backs on the year. The matchup is more daunting in name than in practice, as San Francisco has allowed a decent amount of production to opposing backs through the air.
Charbonnet has seen 11 targets over the last two weeks. He saw 21 touches last week with Walker missing most of the game and is likely to see a similar number on Thursday Night.
Deebo Samuel didn’t see much volume, but he did run a route on just about every dropback last week. He saw four targets and one rush attempt after seeing four targets and three rush attempts in his first game back from injury.
Samuel has seen a heavy dose of volume against zone coverage, and his schemed usage could allow him to avoid Seattle’s strong perimeter cornerbacks. He’s a very strong option in the midrange.
Seattle is allowing the seventh-most yards per target to opposing tight ends, which sets up nicely for George Kittle. Kittle has 20+ DraftKings points in three straight games and gets a matchup with a defense he’s ravaged in the past. In Kittle’s last two trips to Seattle, he’s caught 13 of 17 targets for 274 yards and four touchdowns.
Tyler Lockett continues this jam-packed midrange section. A hamstring injury limited him to run a route on just about three-quarters of the team dropbacks, catching five of seven targets for 51 yards. He was a full participant in Tuesday’s practice, so he should be full systems go for Thursday Night.
San Francisco plays a heavy amount of quarters coverage, with Lockett seeing a 31% target share and 34% target rate per route run against quarters. He’s very cheap compared to his usual price and has a nice matchup.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has taken on more of a downfield role lately and has at least five targets in three straight games. His role would be expanded if one of Metcalf or Lockett were to miss, but I’m expecting both to play. I’d prefer to find the money to Lockett if possible, but Smith-Njigba is a more than fine midrange option.
Smith-Njigba’s increased usage has come at the expense of the tight ends, which was already a very fruitless rotation. Noah Fant is the best option, as he’s run a route on 50% of the team dropbacks since the bye.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may appear to be more optimal.
- Deejay Dallas ($2,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): It’s unclear what the backfield split will be with Walker sidelined, but Deejay Dallas could be utilized in passing downs and to spell Charbonnet. He comes in very cheap and doesn’t need much to pay off his tag
- Jauan Jennings ($1,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Jauan Jennings appeared on about a third of San Francisco’s snaps last week. He isn’t seeing much volume and likely needs to fall into the end zone to pay off.
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