We are just days away from Super Bowl 53, which will involve two of the best offenses in the game going face-to-face. The quarterback breakdown will feature quick-hitting, actionable data-driven analysis of the NFL’s big finale on Sunday.
Let’s dive in!
Rams QB Jared Goff
On DraftKings, Goff leads the entire slate with a +3.70 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings in our Player Models. Overall, Goff was excellent this season, ranking fourth in yards per attempt (8.4) and fifth in passing yards per game (293).
He also has the benefit of passing behind one of the league’s best offensive lines, which ranks sixth in adjusted sack rate (Football Outsiders). This is good news considering the Patriots were able to generate pressure at the highest rate in the league over their past six games:
Over their last six games, the #Patriots front seven has forced pressure on 36% of dropbacks (leads NFL).
Per Next Gen Stats, Jared Goff ranks 27th-of-35 in success rate when pressured. Goff tied for the 5th-best SR when he's kept clean behind Brees, Mahomes, Wentz, and Rivers.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) January 30, 2019
If the Rams want to move the ball, they’ll need to keep Goff clean since he’s averaging a meager 59.8 passer rating when pressured, compared to a 117.1 passer rating when throwing from a clean pocket, per Pro Football Focus.
Also concerning for Goff are his splits without Cooper Kupp:
- With Kupp (eight games): 26.49 fantasy points per game | 2.12 passing touchdowns | 9.65 yards per attempt | 329.62 passing yards per game
- Without Kupp (eight games): 22.41 fantasy points per game | 1.88 passing touchdowns | 7.32 yards per attempt | 256.38 passing yards per game
Over Kupp’s last 10 games, he’s averaging a weak -1.23 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 40% Consistency Rating.
Patriots QB Tom Brady
Brady leads everyone in Median and Ceiling Projections within our Player Models on Sunday. Much like Goff, Brady has struggled against pressure, sporting a 45.3% completion rate and 5.80 yards per attempt.
The only caveat is Brady has been pressured on just 25.8% of his dropbacks this season, the fourth-lowest rate in the league, per Pro Football Focus. So, if the Rams can’t get to Brady behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them consistently move the ball against this defense.
For fantasy purposes, it’s worth noting Brady has thrown for one or fewer touchdowns in eight of his past 11 games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in just 48% of his games this season. The presence of a healthy Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead could sap Brady’s touchdown equity in the red zone.
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Pictured above: Tom Brady
Photo credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports