Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly who you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 6.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to our player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow – QB17 on StatHero, QB7 on FantasyLabs
I get the low ranking on StatHero since the Bengals are 22nd in pass rate and 24th in offensive pace. In addition, the Lions are 28th in rush defense DVOA, so there’s a chance the Bengals just ground and pound. That said, the Vegas Dashboard has the Bengals implied for 25 points, and Burrow has attempted 38 and 32 passes the last two games after totaling 18, 30, and 27.
The Lions are 27th in pass defense DVOA, so there should be plenty of opportunities to attack through the air. What if the Bengals were just protecting Burrow in the early going after his injury last season? At some point, they are going to let him rip.
Taylor Heinicke – QB18 on StatHero, QB8 on FantasyLabs
This spread surprises me. The Chiefs are implied for a slate-high 30.5 points while the Football Team is at 24. Points should be scored in this one, with the Football Team having to be aggressive to keep up. As with the Bengals, there is the chance that the Football Team grounds and pounds since the Chiefs are dead-last in rush defense DVOA.
That said, the Washington secondary has been so bad that the Chiefs should prosper on offense, forcing them to the air more often than not. The Chiefs defense is also 31st in pass defense DVOA. Heinicke has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in three of five games and provides some rushing prowess as he’s carried the ball three, four, eight, five, and five times. He also has five red-zone carries on the season.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliot – RB9 on StatHero, RB3 on FantasyLabs
The Cowboys are first in run blocking, according to PFF, and the Patriots are 22nd in rush defense DVOA. Over the last three games, Elliot has scored 28.2, 23.3, and 26.6 DraftKings points. He’s rushed at least 20 times in each of the past two games and gone over 100 yards in both. He has five rushing touchdowns on the season. In the red zone, he has 18 carries and five targets.
Kareem Hunt – RB17 on StatHero, RB10 on FantasyLabs
Nick Chubb hasn’t practiced all week. If he’s unable to go, then Hunt would get the bulk of the work. According to Statmuse, Hunt has 246 carries for 1,078 yards and 16 touchdowns in 15 games without Chubb. Per the Trends tool, in games when Hunt has received at least 40 offensive snaps (that’s usually been the range in games that Chubb has missed), he’s averaged 17.72 DraftKings points with a positive 1.37 Plus/Minus in 31 games. During that span, he’s gone over 20 DraftKings points nine times with four above 30 and a high of 42.6.
Devontae Booker – RB27 on StatHero, RB16 on FantasyLabs
Saquon Barkley is unlikely to play in Week 6, which makes Booker the RB1. In filling in for Barkley last week, Booker rushed 16 times for 42 yards and a touchdown while hauling in three of four targets for 16 yards and a touchdown. The matchup is daunting as the Giants are 23rd in run blocking according to PFF, while the Rams are first in rush defense. That said, volume is volume, and Booker should get plenty both on the ground and through the air.
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf – WR9 on StatHero, WR19 on FantasyLabs
Russell Wilson is out. Geno Smith is in. End of analysis.
Amari Cooper – WR11 on StatHero, WR23 on FantasyLabs
The Patriots are eighth in pass defense DVOA while being 22nd in rush defense DVOA. The Cowboys will likely continue to make Elliot the focus of the offense. Since his Week 1 explosion with 13 catches on 16 targets for 139 yards and two touchdowns, Cooper has garnered target counts of five, four, three, and six.
AJ Brown – WR15 on StatHero, WR24 on FantasyLabs
Brown has one touchdown on the season and has not racked up at least 50 yards in any contest. Now he faces a Bills team that is first in pass defense DVOA and limited Tyreek Hill to seven receptions for 63 yards on 13 targets last week.
Julio Jones – WR21 on StatHero, WR36 on FantasyLabs
Jones is returning from injury and has one game above 100 yards this season with no touchdowns. The Bills are number one in pass defense DVOA.
Robert Woods – WR22 on StatHero, WR13 on FantasyLabs
The Giants are 23rd in pass defense DVOA, and Woods is coming off a game in which he caught 12 of 14 targets for 150 yards. The Rams are implied for 28.75 points, so there are going to be fantasy goodies, and Stafford has attempted 26, 30, 38, 41, and 37 passes this season. Not all of them can go to Kupp.
Tight End
Hunter Henry – TE13 on StatHero, TE9 on FantasyLabs
There isn’t too much divergence in the tight-end rankings, so Henry it is. He’s caught a touchdown in two straight contests and is coming off a game in which he caught six of eight targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys are implied for 27 points, so Belichick will likely have to let Mac Jones air it out to keep pace. The Cowboys are 31st in DVOA against tight ends.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Taking a Chance (Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, and Courtland Sutton)
I’m going to select Herbert for the block. Then I will use Taylor Heinicke to match up against Aaron Rodgers. Heinicke is $1,500 cheaper but has a slightly higher projection than Rodgers in our Player Model. That savings allows me to use Najee Harris against Courtland Sutton. Harris is the bell cow for the Steelers and has a Median Projection that is three points higher than Sutton’s.
However, monitor the status of Terry McLaurin (questionable). If he’s ruled out, that would put a damper on Heinicke’s outlook.
Oh Sammy Sweet Sammy (Kareem Hunt, Sam Darnold, Ja’Marr Chase, and Ezekiel Elliot)
I’m going to block all three of Hunt, Chase, and Elliot, making this a 1v1. Instead of Darnold, I’m utilizing Joe Burrow, who is $100 cheaper but has a slightly higher projection. In addition, I get the correlation with Chase, so if he has a good game, Burrow will as well. So we are just hoping that the Vikings defense limits Darnold to some degree.
WR Heavy (Stefon Diggs, Chubba Hubbard, Cooper Kupp, and Hunter Henry)
I’m going to block Kupp and Henry in this lineup. Christian McCaffrey likely won’t play, so Hubbard should be the guy. That said, I prefer going to Khalil Herbert, who is $300 cheaper and is the 14th-highest projected running back on the slate. That allows me to go with Tyreek Hill in the MVP slot over Stefon Diggs. The projections are close, but Hill is slightly higher, and I like him to pop off in a game against a porous Football Team secondary.
Again, be sure to monitor Hill’s injury status as he’s been missing practice with a quad injury.
