Yesterday was a great day for the fantasy industry and daily fantasy golf in particular: DraftKings is now offering contests for the European Tour, starting with the BMW Championship this week! We will have Euro Tour content in the near future, and until then you can access the powerful data that we’re accustomed to in the Models. You can tab through the different Tours by simply changing the “contest” filter at the top of the page in your model.
Above all, this article is intended to highlight golfers on the PGA Tour that are in excellent Recent Form. Since recent performance is such a substantial part of the DFS golf equation, we’ll be highlighting golfers using some of the dynamic statistics and trends we have to offer.
Let’s hit it.
To Spieth Or Not To Spieth?
Coming in at $12,800, a full $1,500 more than the next-priced golfer, sits Jordan Spieth. Unlike last week, the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational is a stronger field event with quality golfers all the way through the pricing tiers. It will be very hard to squeeze Spieth into our rosters this week given his elevated price tag.
Jordan Spieth always has the Upside to win at any course, but based on how pricing is shaking out this week, Matt Kuchar ($11,000) stands out among the high-priced golfers this week. Always a crowd favorite, Kuchar is back to playing fantastic golf.
After a bit of a slow start this season (one top-10 finish in his first six events), Matt Kuchar has ripped off a string of three top-10 finishes in his last four events. His Recent Adjusted Round Score (67.7) is tied for second-lowest with Kevin Chappell and Colt Knost in this week’s field and he’s unquestionably an excellent course fit at Colonial. Unlike the AT&T Byron Nelson, we’re focusing less on distance and more so on hitting Greens in Regulation this week.
This is not earth-shattering, but Matt Kuchar’s Recent Greens in Regulation (66.7%) is in the top-70th percentile in the field. His Consistency travels with him to every course, but Kuchar’s exceptional form makes him a great all-around play this week in both cash games and tournaments.
Patton Kizzire Looks Primed for a Breakthrough
Prior to running through the buzzsaw that every golfer faced in the final two rounds of The Players, Patton Kizzire was (and still is) on a blistering pace on Tour as of late. In his last four events including The Players, he owns three top-24-or-better finishes and his Recent Adjusted Round Score (69.0) is tied for ninth-best in the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational field.
We know Recent Form is a crucial data point, but it is especially important once you get out of the high-tier golfers on Tour. Below is a Trend of golfers that are priced between $7,000 and $7,900 on DraftKings, but have Recent Adjusted Round Scores at or below 69.0:
With all of the variance that accompanies daily fantasy golf, one of the great things about FantasyLabs’ Trends tool is it allows you to tinker with hundreds of different filters to find relevant data. For golf, I use the Trends tool to find pricing inefficiencies that otherwise might not be known. Perhaps we found a blind spot in pricing here with golfers in good form in the $7,000-salary range.
The Importance of GIR at Colonial
As referenced throughout this article, Colonial is undeniably not a bombers track. Golfers have to be precise and hitting Greens in Regulation is the paramount statistic of the week.
To exemplify this, here is a Trend that features golfers of any price with a 60th-percentile Recent Greens in Regulation percentage or better at Colonial. Note the substantial Consistency here, or the percentage of times this Trend met or exceeded salary-based expectation:
And here is the same exact Trend, just focused on the results for the 2015 event at Colonial:
To put this another way, 14 of the 24 golfers that finished in the top-20 in Greens in Regulation in last year’s event at Colonial also finished T24 or better in the tournament. Of the 13 golfers that finished top-11 or better in Greens in Regulation for the week at Colonial in 2015, nine finished T24 or better.
Focusing on Greens in Regulation during our research should be of upmost importance this week.
