The Baltimore Ravens deserve a ton of credit. The AFC North heavyweights have maintained their playoff position despite playing without Lamar Jackson for over a month. However, they’ll face the best the division has to offer when they travel to take on the Cincinnati Bengals in the final week of the regular season. Both teams are guaranteed playoff spots, but neither team wants to stumble into the postseason off a loss. We’re anticipating another classic AFC North battle as these divisional foes stand toe-to-toe and trade blows.
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As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
Ravens vs. Bengals Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Joe Burrow Under 10.5 Rushing Yards
By virtue of the Kansas City Chiefs win over the Las Vegas Raiders on Saturday night, the top spot in the AFC and a bye through the first round of the playoffs are no longer up for grabs. As such, we could see a more conservative approach from the Bengals as they try to insulate Joe Burrow ahead of the postseason.
Playing status notwithstanding, rushing hasn’t been Burrow’s strength in the latter part of the season. The reigning Comeback Player of the Year has rushed for ten or fewer yards in six of the past eight games, including three straight. Moreover, he’s been content to sit back in the pocket and launch passes, attempting 31 or more passing attempts in six consecutive outings. That’s taken away from his rushing opportunities, with Burrow taking off just 13 times over the past three games.
The Bengals should also be apprehensive about running their quarterback into the strength of the Ravens’ defense. Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards this season, holding opponents to an average of 94.4 yards per game.
Burrow’s strength is throwing the ball, and the Bengals aren’t going to open up the playbook with nothing left to play for in the final game of the regular season. We might not even see Burrow finish this game. We’re playing the advantage in our algorithm and taking the under on Burrow’s rushing prop.
Demarcus Robinson Any Time Touchdown Scorer +470
Wide receiver Demarcus Robinson hasn’t been a focal point of the Ravens offense recently. Still, he presents as an intriguing any time touchdown scorer thanks to some noteworthy underlying metrics.
Robinson ranks in the upper tier of wide receivers in several categories. Per the FantasyLabs calculations, Robinson has accounted for 14.2% of his team’s receiving yards over the past 12 months and 17.3% of targetted air yards. Additionally, he’s been a consistent producer inside the red zone, posting a 22.2% touchdown rate.
Lastly, Robinson and the rest of the receivers corps will be able to expose the Bengals’ biggest weakness. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed, increasing their average to 267.0 over their last three games.
Robinson’s touchdown price isn’t an accurate reflection of his playmaking ability. The 28-year-old has been a regular contributor on offense and could find paydirt for the second time in three weeks against the Bengals.
Joe Mixon Any Time Touchdown Scorer -105
Joe Mixon may have fallen off last season’s Pro Bowl-worthy production, but he continues to generate offense at an elite level. He’s been held out of the endzone in every contest since his five-touchdown effort in Week 9, a rut he should snap out of against the Ravens.
Granted, Mixon has only played four times since his season-best performance. Still, he continues to churn out yards and get a significant number of looks in the red zone. So far this season, Mixon is averaging 2.94 touches inside the 20, 2.00 inside the ten, and 1.12 within five yards of the end zone. That’s included in the 19.5 touches and 91.3 yards he averages per game.
Even though Baltimore has been stingy against the run, they’ve had a looser standard over their past few games. Pittsburgh Steelers running back torched them for 111 yards last week, with Tony Allgeier totaling 74 and Nick Chubb falling one yard short of the century mark in the preceding weeks.
Running backs are having their way with the Ravens right now, and Mixon should add to that misery on Sunday. The ScoreAndOdds projections show an edge in backing the Bengals’ running back as a touchdown scorer, and given his volume inside the red zone; we would tend to agree.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on Scores And Odds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Including two any time touchdown, scorer has bolstered these odds, with FanDuel Sportsbook offering +1840 on this parlay. That’s over double what we’re seeing in theScoreAndOdds projections, leaving bettors with a notable edge.
Happy sweating, and good luck!