The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Sony Open will bring on our first PGA event of the season with a 144-player field in which the top 70 players and ties make the cut. So let’s dive right in!
As always, I backtested various metrics in our PGA Models to find out which ones have been the most valuable at Waialae. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 54.26 DraftKings points and a +6.66 Plus/Minus with a 52.1% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only those metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent Scrambling: +9.20
- Recent Eagles: +7.82
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +6.63
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +6.38
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +6.05
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +6.00
- Long-Term Eagles: +5.16
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +5.16
- Recent Missed Cuts: +4.80
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +4.78
- Long-Term Birdies: +4.70
- Recent Bogeys: +4.62
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +3.79
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +3.04
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +2.64
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +2.05
- Recent Birdies: +2.01
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +1.90
- Long-Term Scrambling: +1.80
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +1.33
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +1.27
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +0.57
Waialae is a par-70, 7,044-yard course that’s typically a birdie fest with the average winning score around -17.0 since 2003, per Fantasy Golf Metrics. Additionally, golfers are hitting only around 50% of fairways here, but the short rough here won’t really penalize the players for missing the fairway.
This course has just two par 5s, which makes par-4 scoring especially crucial and the backtesting shows this with both long-term and recent par-4 scoring ranking inside the top six among the metrics that correlated positively.
Knowing this tournament tends to be a birdie fest, most metrics I’ll be focusing on are eagle and birdie scoring, along with the previously mentioned par-4 scoring. I also tend to rely on long-term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) as a catch-all metric.