The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Desert Classic isn’t your typical tournament. Golfers will play on three different courses, with the cut happening after three rounds. The courses they play on will consist of:
- La Quinta Country Club: Par 72, 7,060 yards
- Nicklaus Tournament Course: Par 72, 7,159 yards
- Stadium Course: Par 72, 7,113 yards
The final round will be played at the Stadium Course, so that course will be played twice if they make the cut. The Stadium Course is also the toughest of the three, with an average score of 71.18 while La Quinta and Nicklaus checked in with average respective scores of 68.83 and 69.45 last year.
Since La Quinta isn’t in our database and 50% of the tournament will be played at the Stadium Course, that’s the course I chose to backtest in our Trends tool. Additionally, the way the backtesting panned out for Stadium Course, it wouldn’t have changed my overall strategy for this week.
As always, I backtested various metrics in our PGA Models to find out which ones have been the most valuable at the Stadium Course. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 66.04 DraftKings points and a +16.72 Plus/Minus with a 73.2% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only those metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +9.55
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +9.07
- Long-Term Birdies: +6.98
- Recent Eagles: +6.69
- Recent Birdies: +5.35
- Recent Missed Cuts: +5.29
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +5.14
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +4.77
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +4.06
- Recent Driving Distance: +3.96
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +3.71
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +3.45
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +2.96
- Long-Term Eagles: +2.88
- Recent Putts Per Round: +2.36
- Long-Term Bogeys: +1.80
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation: +1.70
- Recent Scrambling: +1.65
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +0.87
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +0.78
- Recent Bogeys: +0.15
Key metrics to focus on: Par-5 scoring, birdie or better scoring, par-4 scoring, Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score).