The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The PGA Tour is back! So, let’s not waste any time and dive right into this no-cut, 34-player event.
As always, I backtested various metrics in our PGA Models to find out which ones have been the most valuable at Plantation. Per the Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation). Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 91.11 DraftKings points and a +19.32 Plus/Minus with an 86.3% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only those metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +4.83
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +4.53
- Long-Term Scrambling: +4.41
- Long-Term Bogeys: +2.90
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +1.67
- Long-Term Birdies: +1.24
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +1.20
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +0.06
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +0.01
Given there’s an extended period of time off, I left recent performance off because the samples were small and mostly negative in regards to Plus/Minus. Since this tournament is loaded with champions from the 2018 season, it won’t be difficult to construct a team to feel good about. And since there’s no cut, it’s possible to be more risk-averse in lineup construction if needed.