The UFC attempted to host their annual Noche UFC event in Mexico for the first time this year, but problems with the arena in Mexico forced a relocation to San Antonio, Texas. We still have an excellent main event, though, with Jean Silva taking on Diego Lopes for a potential title shot.
The 14-fight card starts at 3:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially at 7:00 p.m.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Jean Silva ($9,200) vs. Diego Lopes ($7,000)
This fight is probably a #1 contender match for just one of the participants, Jean Silva, since Lopes is coming off an unsuccessful shot at Alexander Volkanovski in April. That fight snapped a five-fight losing streak for the Mexico-based Brazilian, but he had his moments, including a second-round knockdown of the featherweight GOAT.
Still, he comes into the fight against Fighting Nerds team member Silva as about a +200 underdog. Silva is on a 13-fight win streak dating back to 2018, with the last five of those wins in the UFC. None of his UFC fights have made it to even the third round, with four knockouts and a submission along the way.
With this fight featuring an over/under of 2.5 rounds, he still might not need a third round. Silva has massive power for the division, and while Lopes has never been knocked out in the UFC, he’s fairly fast and loose with his defense.
Lopes should have the edge on the ground, as he’s the BJJ coach for Lobo Gym — home of UFC standouts like Alexa Grasso and Irene Aldana, among others. However, getting it there will be a challenge, as Silva’s 86% takedown defense is well above average.
Plus, Silva submitted Byce Mitchell, a fighter that conventional wisdom held would be the better grappler. That makes it hard to see a path for Lopes, though he also possesses the power to win in a brawl should he be able to land first.
I’m not quite confident enough in Silva to skip this stack in cash games, but it’s an entirely viable option. For GPPs I’ll be more heavily invested in the favorite, but also bring some lineups with neither man. Lopes is durable enough to extend this fight and Silva doesn’t bring takedown upside, so there’s no guarantee he makes the optimal at $9,200 even in a win.
The Easy Chalk
Tatiana Suarez ($9,400)
Another fighter coming off a failed title bid at UFC Noche is Tatiana Suarez. She challenged now-former strawweight champion Zhang Weili in February, losing a noncompetitive decision to Zhang, who has since vacated her title in hopes of becoming a double champion at flyweight.
Now the UFC is hoping to build Suarez back up for another title shot, with a perfect bounce-back opportunity against Amanda Lemos ($6,800). Lemos is on the downswing of her career at 38 years old and has typically struggled with grapplers. Her last three losses came via two submissions and in her own fight against Zhang, where she was taken down six times.
Which makes this an ideal matchup for Suarez, both from a real-life and DFS perspective. Suarez is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, two-time national high school wrestler of the year, and former Pan Am Games gold medalist in freestyle wrestling.
That means the obvious path to victory for Suarez is through grappling, which could manifest itself in either a quick submission win or an extended fight featuring plenty of takedowns and control time. Either option is fine for DFS, which is why she leads our median projections.
The Upside Plays
Dusko Todorovic ($9,300)
There are two more heavy favorites with excellent stoppage odds on this card. Both are more a function of their opponents’ weaknesses than their own strength, as Dusko Todorovich isn’t exactly a superstar. However, he’s proven himself much better than Jose Medina ($6,900) and comes in with -340 odds.
Todorovic is just 3-6 in the UFC, but all three wins have been via knockout. Medina is 0-3 between the UFC and Contender Series and is most notable for earning a contract in a losing DWCS appearance largely thanks to his toughness while absorbing tons of damage.
That toughness finally failed him against Ateba Gautier, who finished him at the 3:32 mark of his last fight in March. Across his three UFC appearances, he’s taken more than five significant strikes per minute, while landing just 2.18. He also got taken down five times by Zach Reese in their fight — which presents the logical path to victory for Todorovic.
All three of Todorovic’s TKO wins in the UFC came via ground and pound, and he has a clear wrestling edge over Medina. Todorovic landed four takedowns on Reese — the same Reese who out-wrestled Medina in their fight.
That gives Todorovic plenty of upside if he can find the finish following a takedown, as well as a solid floor thanks to his grappling.
Zach Reese ($8,900)
Speaking of Reese, after defeating Medina and Todorovic in recent fights, he now shares a card with them. This time he’s taking on Sedriques Dumas ($7,300), who’s known more for his troubles out of the cage than his ability inside it.
Dumas was initially booked for a fight in June but had to withdraw since he couldn’t get his court-mandated ankle monitor off in time. He’s 3-3 in the UFC, with all three wins coming via decision and all three losses coming inside the distance. He’s probably worse than his record indicates, though, as two came against bottom-tier UFC fighters Dennis Tiuliulin and Abu Azaitar, and the other was against Cody Brundage, who gassed out after accepting the fight on short notice.
Reese is a dangerous grappler who averages just under three takedowns per 15 minutes, while Dumas has just 40% takedown defense. This is another spot where the favorite has both takedown and finishing upside, and the underdog isn’t much of a finishing threat, providing an excellent floor/ceiling combination.
Updated on 12/10/25
The Value Play
Rafa Garcia ($7,100)
There are plenty of value options on this week’s card, with some underdogs catching steam in the betting market. My favorite price-considered option is probably Garcia, who’s taking on Jared Gordon ($9,100) on the main card.
After opening with odds around +225, Garcia is now “just” a +200 underdog against Gordon. More importantly, the fight is -275 to go to a decision, with both fighters having fairly equal inside-the-distance props. That means the market views Garcia as more likely to get a finish relative to his overall chances of winning than Gordon.
Which makes sense, since Garcia’s only professional loss via finish came against the relentless grappling of Grant Dawson, and he’s never been so much as knocked down on his feet. Gordon is a solid striker but a relatively reluctant grappler and is unlikely to pursue that path against Garcia.
On the other hand, Garcia averages more than three takedowns per 15 minutes and will certainly be the one to initiate grappling in this fight. That means his floor is a 15-minute striking fight, while his ceiling is piling up takedowns en route to an upset. Not bad for $7,100.
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The Contrarian Choice
Alice Pereira ($8,600)
“Golden Girl” Alice Pereira is one of the more hyped women’s prospects in a while, with a 5-0 pro record before her 20th birthday. She’s not related to former two-division champion Alex Pereira (though his sister Aline is also a fighter), but the Brazilian prodigy is also a dangerous striker, with four knockouts in her five (official) wins.
She’s set to become the youngest female UFC fighter in history when she debuts Saturday night against Monsterrat Rendon ($7,600), who sports a similar 6-1 pro record despite being 17 years older than Pereira.
The UFC is certainly not using this fight as a way to promote Rendon, who has three split decisions among her six career wins, including her lone UFC victory. This is intended as a showcase for Pereira, who has the opportunity to become a future star for the promotion.
Which is why I’m surprised that Pereira is just a -142 favorite in this bout, despite her talent and athleticism edges over Rendon. The reverse line movement and overall hesitancy to roster female fighters should keep her ownership extremely low, and this could be the last time we get her at this price if she turns in a big performance.
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The Swing Fight
Daniil Donchenko ($8,800) vs. Rodrigo Sezinando ($7,400)
The TUF 33 welterweight championship fight was originally booked for UFC 319 before being pushed back a month to Noche UFC this weekend. Both Donchenko and Sezinando are representing team Daniel Cormier, where Sezinando was his first welterweight selection and Donchenko was his second.
However, Donchenko is favored in this meeting thanks to his more impressive performances on the show. He picked up a unanimous decision and a first-round TKO in his two bouts, while Sezinando needed two decisions (one split) to punch his ticket to the UFC.
I’m viewing that as a bit of an overreaction by the market, though, since Sezinando had the tougher path and higher “draft capital” based on Cormier and Chael Sonnen’s evaluations. Plus, he has the better pre-TUF resume, with seven finishes in eight pro wins against stiffer competition.
I want exposure to both men, though, since this feels like a fairly binary fight between the grappling of Sezinando and the striking of Donchenko. Whoever is able to dictate where this fight happens probably emerges with a stoppage, as the fight is -220 to end inside the distance. Both deserve some exposure this weekend, but I’ll be over the field on Sezinando, for reasons I discussed with Sean Zerillo on our latest UFC Betting Podcast:
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Pictured: Jean Silva
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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