The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a four-game main slate at 6 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Plays
Auston Matthews ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
No player has a higher Median Projection than Auston Matthews tonight against the San Jose Sharks. Matthews leads FantasyLabs Median, Ceiling, and Floor Projections and is in an ideal spot tonight.
The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Sharks on the second night of a back-to-back. Moreover, the Sharks are regression candidates after overachieving relative to their production metrics through the first three games of the season. The Leafs’ center got his sea legs underneath him in his first game, posting a mind-numbing 75.5% Corsi rating and creating 19 scoring and four high-danger opportunities against the New York Rangers. He’ll have more space to operate against a tired Sharks team.
Matthews is, without question, the top play at center.
Top Values
Jonathan Dahlen ($3,500 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Jonathan Dahlen is listed as a center on FanDuel slates but is designated exclusively as a winger at Draftkings. However, you have to roster him; he’s worth inclusion.
Dahlen’s inexpensive salary doesn’t accurately represent his fantasy ceiling. The 2016 second-round draft pick leads the Sharks in Corsi rating and shots-for percentage while ranking second in expected goals-for percentage. Dahlen skates on the Sharks’ top line and powerplay unit, affording him quality chances, and offensive zone starts to improve on his already gaudy numbers.
Our Ceiling Projections have Dahlen as one of the best forward options tonight, and he’s available at a bargain price.
Wingers
Top Plays
Mitch Marner ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
Riding shotgun on Matthews’ line is Mitch Marner, who remains a top-producing winger. If Matthews goes off as anticipated, Marner will be involved in the scoring.
Marner continues to dominate across all strengths, although he has yet to have a big output day. That could come against the beleaguered Sharks on Friday night. The former first-round selection has strong relative metrics, putting up a 64.4% expected goals-for percentage through four games. Two key indicators highlight Marner as a progression candidate. First, his actual goals-for percentage is well below expected (50.0% vs. 64.4%), and his on-ice PDO (combination of shooting and save percentages) is 0.974 and is below the hypothetical average of 1.000. Marner will progress.
You get elite Ceiling Projections with Marner and a more affordable price than other top options. He’s worthy of the investment on DFS slates.
Top Values
Reilly Smith ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
The Vegas Golden Knights are in a similar position as the Maple Leafs tonight. They host an Edmonton Oilers team on the second night of a back-to-back and play their third game in four nights. Elevating Reilly Smith’s DFS appeal is the Oilers goaltending situation, which could see Mikko Koskinen play his third game in four nights, and both nights of the back-to-back.
From an advanced analytics perspective, Smith has been the Knights’ best forward this season. Smith leads the team in Corsi rating and expected goals-for percentage across all strengths and has been on the ice for the third-most scoring chances. However, there is a substantive disconnect between expected (67.5% expected goals-for percentage) and actual (28.6% expected goals-for percentage) output. Smith will exceed expectations as production balances with output.
You are going to want Smith on your DFS roster when he breaks out, and that could come tonight against the Oilers at a lesser than price.
Defense
Top Plays
Alex Pietrangelo ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
Alex Pietrangelo presents sky-high projections against the Oilers. The Golden Knights had a strong analytics showing against the St. Louis Blues in their last outing and will continue that against an over-skated Oilers side tonight.
As always, the d-man will have opportunities across all strengths with the Knights, playing on the team’s top defensive pairing and top powerplay unit. Pietrangelo has been on the ice for more high-danger and scoring chances than any other Knights player but has yet to record a point this season. The Knights’ assistant captain accumulates points in other ways by registering blocks and shots, as well, and his 0.951 PDO implies that he’s due for some puck luck.
Pietrangelo continues to create opportunities for the Knights, and they get a favorable matchup tonight. He’s the top play at defense.
Top Values
Miro Heiskanen ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
Miro Heiskanen presents more value on the Draftkings slate than the FanDuel one but is worth rostering on both platforms.
The Finnish defenseman leads the Dallas Stars in ice-time by a significant margin, highlighting the importance that he plays across all strengths for them. Heiskanen ranks second on the team in points, recording a game-winning goal and a powerplay assist through three games already. Like our top play Pietrangelo, Heiskanen leads his team in scoring and high-danger chances but comes at a discounted price relative to other defensive options.
Heiskanen rates highly in our model, and his early-season results suggest that he’s closer to Ceiling than Floor Projections.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Plays
Braden Holtby ($8,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
The Dallas Stars are one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. Perennially, they rank as one of the top units in expected goals-against, thanks to a suffocating system in their own end. That benefits Braden Holtby as the veteran netminder has improved his metrics since joining the Stars.
Holtby has stopped 94.7% of shots this season, including 83.3% of even-strength high-danger chances and all five powerplay shots he’s faced. The 32-year-old gets an ideal matchup on Friday night against a Los Angeles Kings team that doesn’t pour on the offense. In their last outing, the Kings were limited to an insignificant 18 scoring and four high-danger opportunities against the Nashville Predators. They’ll face an even stingier team tonight in Dallas and are unlikely to surpass their 8.7% shooting percentage with Holtby as the last line of defense.
The under on this game has been hammered, and the Stars are moderate favorites, expressing confidence in Holtby to win and have a strong showing. That’s reflected in our projections, which rate Holtby as the best goalie available.
Top Values
Craig Anderson ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. Boston Bruins
The Buffalo Sabres are surprisingly 3-0-0 to start the season, and Craig Anderson plays a big part in that. Anderson has been a stabilizing presence in the Sabres defending zone and is the top value play at goalie tonight.
The Sabres’ veteran netminder is stopping 95.4% of shots this season and has 2.6 goals saved above average through his first two starts. Buffalo is playing a much more responsible defensive game this season and has allowed only five even-strength high-danger chances with Anderson in net. Anderson has returned the favor by stopping 100% of powerplay shots faced, thanks to the Sabres keeping those shots from the periphery.
Anderson is one of the lowest salaries on the slate but has a top-ranked ceiling, per our projections.
Notable Stacks
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Maple Leafs are in an ideal scenario tonight. They are due for progression from an analytics perspective, and they get an ideal scenario against the Sharks. We highlighted Matthews and Marner as top plays among forwards and pairing them with Morgan Reilly and Michael Hutchinson, rates as one of the best stacks available.
Betting market confidence is high on the Leafs, as they enter their contest as substantive -240 favorites (FanDuel Sportsbook). Matthews used his last game to get acclimated to pace, is due for a monster performance, and will elevate Marner’s ceiling with his. The Leafs remain a solid defensive team, which will be emphasized with Hutchinson the expected starter. Reilly’s offensive abilities complement Matthews and Marner, and he will have opportunities in the offensive zone.
Based on our projections, we should expect big things from the Leafs tonight.