When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Using our Player Props Tool, we can easily identify the biggest discrepancies between Koerner’s projections and Rams-Cardinals props on PrizePicks to target the ones with the most value for this Monday Night Football showdown.
Let’s dive in.
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NFL Prop Picks for MNF
Van Jefferson Under 48.5 Rec Yards
Jefferson’s receiving role has always been of an explosive play nature. His 4.39 speed favors a deep play route tree that often opens up the intermediate area of the field.
With Odell Beckham Jr. now competing for targets, I’m taking the under on Jefferson’s receiving prop. He’s fallen short of this number in two of the past four games, including two of the three with Beckham in the fold.
The strength of this Cardinals defense is against the pass, ranking third-best in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. They also allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and now have the chance to essentially lock in the NFC West title with a win at home over their division rivals.
We have Jefferson projected for only 46 receiving yards.
Zach Ertz Under 4.0 Rec
Ertz has been a welcome addition to the Cardinals’ passing attack, but this number is a little too high for a huge divisional battle in primetime. It’s likely skewed higher because of his huge performance in Week 11, when Ertz tallied eight receptions for 88 yards and two touchdowns en route to the overall TE1 fantasy stat line.
Coming out of their Week 12 bye, the Cardinals enjoyed a fully healthy receiving core, including top wideout DeAndre Hopkins. This pushed the target share for Ertz back to just two targets despite playing 80.8% of the snaps.
This is a play on lower volume and competing options with Hopkins, A.J. Green and Rondale Moore back on the field. Also, Arizona ranks second in team rushing percentage, trailing only Philadelphia. I don’t see this as a high passing volume game for the Cardinals, and will take the under on Ertz’ reception total.
We project Ertz at 3.8 receptions.
Kyler Murray Over 23.5 Rush Yards
Murray looked fully healthy after the Cardinals’ Week 12 bye, rushing for 59 yards and finishing as the overall fantasy QB1. The Cardinals offense is most dangerous when he is scrambling, and against a strong Rams pass defense, that’s exactly what Murray needs to do.
In the Cardinals’ 37-20 win over the Rams on the road in Week 4, Murray ran for 39 yards, easily beating this total. But given his recent injury history, this number has skewed lower, providing even more value. Most sites have this total around 27.5 yards, providing added impetus to take this low total on PrizePicks.
In a game with a 51-point total and only a 2.5-point spread (check real-time NFL odds here), this Monday Night Football clash projects to be a high-scoring game that comes down to the last few possessions. If Arizona wants to keep this close, Murray needs to use his rushing ability. For those reasons, we are taking his over.