It all comes down to this. Seventeen weeks later, we still have no clue what the playoff matchups will look like next week. With so much on the line, most teams are left playing their starters as they fight for postseason berths, division titles, or a bump up the standings. That leaves us with a full board of player projections to delve into as we end the regular season on a high note.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Week 18 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Jared Goff Higher 211.5 Passing Yards
One week isn’t enough time for Detroit Lions fans to process the injustice they suffered, so apologies for opening a sore wound. The Lions were absolutely robbed of a win last week, negating their chances of claiming a first-round bye and securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That’s not going to stop them from putting their best foot forward and hoping for some help to move up the standings.
Not surprisingly, Jared Goff has been the offensive catalyst needed to drive Detroit up the standings. The Lions quarterback is having a banner year, throwing for 265.9 yards per game while falling just short of his previous career highs in completion percentage and passing yards. With one last opportunity to match or surpass those totals, we expect him to be at his best.
Goff’s passing yard total is suspiciously low, considering his recent performances. The three-time Pro Bowler has thrown for more than 211 yards in all but two games this season, averaging 268.7 over his last three. That coincides with a deteriorating Minnesota Vikings pass defense that has allowed at least 246 passing yards in each of their past three, for an average of 279.0.
The Lions still have an outside shot at claiming the second seed in the NFC, potentially getting at least two home games in the playoffs. Goff will have a near-full arsenal at his disposal, minus Jameson Williams, which will help him exceed his modest passing-yards projection against a familiar Vikings squad. We all know Goff does his best work in a dome.
Editor’s note: This line has moved to 217.5
Justin Jefferson Lower 93.5 Receiving Yards
We are staying on theme with our second pick, going across the field and targeting the Vikings’ offensive catalyst. Justin Jefferson returned to the lineup just in time to help Minnesota with its playoff push. Unfortunately for Jefferson, he returned in the middle of the Vikings’ quarterback turmoil, negatively impacting his ceiling.
Jefferson hasn’t been the stud we typically expect him to be since returning. The reigning All-Pro receiver has gone north of 84 receiving yards just once in four games, with lousy underlying metrics. Over that modest four-game sample, Jefferson has a diminished 60.6% catch rate, below his career average of 67.6%.
Even though he went off against the Lions last time out, we’re expecting a more subdued performance from Jefferson in Week 18. Detroit has been effective at corralling opponents, limiting them to a 62.7% completion rate, 10th-best in the NFL.
It’s evident that Jefferson doesn’t have the same chemistry with Nick Mullens or Jaren Hall as he does with Kirk Cousins. Moreover, it’s unlikely that he responds with an improved effort against an impactful Lions pass defense. We’re betting Jefferson falls below 93.5 receiving yards \Sunday.
Editor’s note: This line has moved to 95.5
Dak Prescott Higher 11.5 Rushing Yards
It’s usually just a matter of time before it happens, but the Dallas Cowboys have once again emerged as the villain in this year’s campaign. Dallas was the beneficiary of a controversial call last week, boosting their divisional title aspirations. They are not out of the woods just yet, needing a win in Week 18 to complete the feat.
Of course, that means the Cowboys’ starters will be on the field Sunday against the Washington Commanders. Included in that is Dak Prescott, who has shaken off a few bad performances to emerge as a one of the top QBs in the NFL.
Prescott could set several noteworthy benchmarks this season, but he hasn’t lost his rushing ability. The Mississippi State product is averaging 4.4 yards per carry, his best since 2019. Further, with 3.4 rushing attempts per game, Prescott is netting 15.1 rushing yards per game. He’s saved his best for last, with 91 of those yards coming over his previous five outings.
Opponents have been running all over the Washington Commanders in the latter part of the campaign. Washington has given up 544 rushing yards over their last three games, with 24 of those coming against three of the most stationary quarterbacks the NFL has to offer (Matthew Stafford, Trevor Siemian, and Brock Purdy). Prescott should have no problem breaking free and gathering at least 12 rushing yards in this one.
Kyler Murray Higher 32.5 Passing Attempts
We’ve focused our attention on many of the teams with skin in the playoff game, but we’ve talked less about players who are trying to salvage their spots on their rosters. Among those is Kyler Murray, who has failed to live up to expectations over the last couple of seasons. However, the former Offensive Rookie of the Year will have a chance to shine against the Seattle Seahawks in the regular-season finale.
After easing Murray into things halfway through the season, the Arizona Cardinals have taken the blinders off more recently. Murray has attempted 38 or more passes in three of his previous five, averaging 35.2 over that stretch.
More importantly, Murray can expose the Seahawks’ defensive inefficiencies, stomping out their smoldering playoff hopes. Seattle sits in the bottom half of the league in most passing-defense categories, including completion percentage, passing yards per game, and yards per completion.
The cherry on top for Murray is Seattle’s challenging schedule to end the campaign. This will be the Seahawks’ fourth road game over the last six weeks, taking on some of the best teams in the NFL along the way. Murray can put up a crooked number against a well-traveled Seahawks team, and we don’t expect him to disappoint. He should air it out more than 32.5 times in Week 18.
Khalil Herbert Lower 61.5 Rushing Yards
Our final play comes out of the Chicago Bears backfield. At different points this season, we’ve seen a number of playmakers emerge as preferred rushing options. Roschon Johnson and D’Onta Foreman have shone at different times, while Justin Fields has been up to his usual antics in the ground game. But don’t forget about Khalil Herbert, who has beasted his way to the finish line. Although Herbert has taken a step forward over the past couple of weeks, that’s a substantial deviation from what we’ve come to expect from him this season and throughout his career.
Herbert has been in a mood lately, totaling 236 yards over his last two games. Over that modest sample, he’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry while accounting for nearly 30% of the Bears’ total offense. Additionally, those 236 yards represent nearly half of his yearly total, coming in at 583 rushing yards.
Plainly, Herbert is a prime regression candidate. Throughout his career, he’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry, marginally above his season average of 4.9. Further, he typically falls in the 7-10 carry range, below the 38 he’s mustered over the last two games.
The Bears have nothing left to play for, and they won’t have to rely as heavily on Herbert in the season finale. A shared workload, anticipated regression, and a stout Green Bay Packers defense will all play a factor in Herbert coming in under 61.5 rushing yards.
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