Week 6 in the NFL will be the second straight week with a 10-game main DFS slate. An early game in London will get the day started, but the main slate starts at 1:00 p.m. ET with seven games kicking off before three games in the late wave to close out the afternoon.
The Packers return from their bye week with the highest implied team total on the board, edging out the Colts and Cowboys. The matchup between the Cowboys and Panthers has the highest over/under on the slate. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 6. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Trevor Lawrence ($5,100) Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (46.5 total)
For this post, we’ll rely heavily on an evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty, and Raybon, highlighted above. In that aggregate, Lawrence has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback on DraftKings’ main slate.
Lawrence’s salary came out before his monster Monday Night Football game against the Chiefs. He led his team to a 31-28 comeback victory that improved their record to 4-1. He ran for a pair of touchdowns and 54 yards on his 10 carries while throwing for 221 yards and a third touchdown, along with an interception and a costly fumble.
So far this season, Lawrence has 1,066 passing yards and six passing touchdowns in five games with five interceptions. He’s still adjusting to new head coach Liam Coen’s offense, but he seems to be taking steps in the right direction after last week’s big win.
He gets a favorable matchup against the Seahawks, who are coming east from the West Coast for an early game. They had some strong showings against quarterbacks early in the season, but last week Baker Mayfield shredded them for 379 yards and two touchdowns while completing 29 of 33 passes.
Lawrence does have dual-threat upside, as he reminded everyone on Monday, and he has a high enough ceiling to be a strong value consideration for your cheap QB lineups in Week 6.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Chris Olave ($5,100) New Orleans Saints (+3.5) vs. New England Patriots (45.5 total)
The Saints got their first win of the season last week by knocking off the Giants, and they’ll look to make it two in a row at home as they welcome in the Patriots, who are fresh off a win of their own against the Bills on Sunday Night Football.
Olave has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on the board this week in the aggregate projections and continues to draw heavy targets from QB Spencer Rattler every week.
On the season, Olave ranks second in the NFL with 54 targets, behind only Puka Nacua of the Rams. Olave hasn’t been nearly as efficient with his targets, though, catching 33 for 244 yards and a touchdown in his five games. He had double-digit targets in four of those five games and has 10+ DraftKings points in each contest this season.
Olave had seven catches for 59 yards last week against the Giants, but he was a little overshadowed by an 87-yard TD by Rashid Shaheed on the other side of the field. Olave hasn’t broken a huge play like that yet this year, but his volume of targets gives him a high ceiling and a high floor.
The Patriots rank in the middle of the pack against receivers this year. Last week, they did give up two receiver touchdowns against the Bills and have allowed 13+ receptions to wide receivers in three of their five games.
Playing at home in the Superdome with such a heavy workload, Olave brings the kind of upside that makes him a strong GPP value option, even though he hasn’t quite reached his ceiling yet this year without any huge plays.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Rachaad White ($6,000) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (47.5 total)
The Buccaneers were using White as a complement to Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) before Week 5, when Irving missed the Bucs’ win over the Seahawks. With Irving most likely missing a second game, according to reports from ESPN’s Adam Schefter, White should be lined up to be the featured back for a second straight week, and as a result, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position using the three-way aggregate.
White played a massive 80% of snaps in Week 5 without Irving, and he racked up 23.1 DraftKings points on 14 carries for 41 yards and two touchdowns in addition to four catches for 30 more yards. White had popped in a few games while sharing time with Irving, but he has a much higher ceiling with a larger workshare.
He’s caught four passes in back-to-back weeks, showing he can contribute in the passing game, and he continues to be the preferred back near the goal line as well. He has the potential for another monster week before Irving returns as the Bucs host the 49ers in one of the later games.
The 49ers just allowed Kyren Williams to rush for 65 yards and record two receiving touchdowns on Thursday night, so even though they rank in the middle of the pack against running backs overall this season, this should be a matchup where White can find some room to put up big numbers.
Like Olave, his workload projections give him both a high floor and a high ceiling for a play at his price in Week 6.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Tyler Warren ($4,900) Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (47.5 total)
Warren has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends this week, as he matches up head-to-head against Trey McBride, who is the only tight end with a better Projected Plus/Minus but costs more as a pay-up play.
The Colts’ rookie tight end has been a big part of the new-look offense with Daniel Jones at the helm. Indy is off to a fast 4-1 start after hanging 40 points on the Raiders last week, and Warren caught all four of his targets for 44 yards and his second NFL touchdown.
He has at least 11 DraftKings points in four of his five games this season and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those four games. He’s been especially sharp in his three home games, averaging 13.7 DraftKings points per contest at Lucas Oil Stadium.
He’ll face the Cardinals in Indy this week, and so far this season, the Arizona defense has allowed an average of 6.8 catches per week to opposing tight ends for a healthy average of 67.6 yards per contest. It’s a strong matchup for Warren to produce value once again in Week 6.
Pictured: Tyler Warren
Photo Credit: Imagn
