The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
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Bears at Colts
The Colts will host the Bears as four-point favorites in Week 5. They will again be without Donte Moncrief but are still expected to produce plenty of points considering their implied total of 25.75 points is the sixth-highest in Week 5. The Bears will likely turn to Brian Hoyer for another week as Jay Cutler continues to recover from his thumb injury; they are implied to score 21.75 points. Let’s take a look at how the rosters shake out between these 1-3 teams.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brian Hoyer
Starting QB Jay Cutler (thumb) has missed practice again this week and looks likely to miss his third straight game. In his place, Hoyer has thrown for 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns in consecutive starts. Hoyer has been the better QB in 2016. This has translated into fantasy success, as Hoyer’s 0.46 fantasy points per drop back mark ranks 11th among all quarterbacks over the past two weeks. These numbers have been even more impressive considering the value he’s provided from his minimum-DK salary:
Hoyer has posted a +8.69 Plus/Minus and 22.85 DK points per game against the Cowboys and Lions. His salary has risen to $5,500 on DK this week and may not come with the same low level of ownership: His five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is a step above similarly-priced QBs. The Colts released defensive starters Antonio Cromartie and Sio Moore this week, which may be a good thing considering they’ve allowed 31.3 points per game this season — the third-worst mark in the league.
RB – Jordan Howard
Starter Jeremy Langford is doubtful for Week 5 and expected not to play.
Howard received 26 of the Bears’ 29 RB touches during their Week 4 win over the Lions. He made good use of his touches, rushing for over 100 yards and earning the trust of coach John Fox, who said after that game that the Bears will “ride him pretty good going forward.” Although Howard took advantage of a porous Lions run defense, he’s now averaging six yards per touch and has brought a new level of elusiveness to the team’s backfield. Jeremy Langford was openly ridiculed by Fox for not gaining enough yards after contact, and Howard managed to average three yards after contact in Week 4 — tied for the eighth-best rate of the week among all RBs who had at least 10 carries. He’s priced at $5,200 on DK with an 82 percent Bargain Rating, but his 31 to 40 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is the highest among all RBs. Howard will look to score his first career touchdown against a Colts defense that has allowed a touchdown on 4.74 percent of their plays over the past 12 months.
RB – Joique Bell and Ka’Deem Carey
Bell gained just six yards on three carries against his former team in Week 4 while Carey missed his second consecutive game with a hamstring injury. Neither back figures to take many touches away from Howard in Week 5. Bell isn’t a value even at $3,200 on DK, as his -2.8 Projected Plus/Minus is one of the worst marks among all RBs.
Carey practiced in a limited session on Thursday. He’s officially questionable for Week 5. Even if he plays, he isn’t expected to play a large role.
WR – Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery has been battling hamstring and knee injuries and reportedly “wasn’t 100 percent” for the Bears’ Week 4 win over the Lions, per the Chicago Tribune. This hasn’t affected his ability to stay on the field, as he’s played on 90.4 percent of snaps this season. Still, it could explain why Jeffery is averaging just 6.2 targets per game this season, well down from his average of 10.4 targets per game in 2015. Week 5 is as good a time as ever for him to get back to receiving double-digit targets, as Kevin White has been placed on the injured reserve list with a fractured fibula. Jeffery is priced at $8,000 on FD and faces a Colts secondary that doesn’t have a cornerback graded higher than 75th this season by PFF.
WR – Eddie Royal
Royal (calf) has missed practice this week and is questionable for Week 5. He will likely be a game-time decision and will probably be extremely limited even if he does play.
His absence would be a blow to an offense that will also be without Kevin White. Royal has actually been the Bears’ No. 1 fantasy receiver through four weeks, as his 15.78 DraftKings points are the 22nd-most among all wide receivers. Royal has achieved this status through ruthless efficiency and his ability to make plays after the catch. Royal’s 81.8 percent catch rate is the second-highest among all WRs and he’s ranked 10th among all WRs with 5.4 yards after the catch per target.
WR – Cameron Meredith
Meredith received three targets on just 17 snaps in Week 4. His 6’3″ and 207-lb. frame comes along with a 4.4-second 40-yard dash and he figures to assume most of White’s snaps as the offense’s No. 2 outside receiver. And if Royal is also unable to play this week, then Meredith will likely see a full compliment of snaps and extra targets.
Even though he’s unproven, Meredith is an intriguing punt play priced at the DK minimum, as his 10.2-point projected ceiling is the third-highest among all min-priced WRs on DK.
TE – Zach Miller
Miller missed practice Wednesday with a rib injury but returned on Thursday and is expected to be ready for Sunday. He was targeted just three times against the Lions but scored his third touchdown of the season. He’s averaged 2.46 fantasy points per target this season, the third-highest rate among all tight ends. While Miller’s targets could fluctuate on a weekly basis, he’s a sure-handed receiver who currently leads the Bears in red-zone targets. He’s priced at $3,600 on DK with seven Pro Trends this week, and he has a strong +4.5 Projected Plus/Minus. Miller faces a Colts defense that has allowed 3.5 points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months.
Indianapolis Colts
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Andrew Luck
Through four weeks, Luck’s 21.12 DraftKings points per game are the seventh-most among all quarterbacks. He hasn’t thrown the ball particularly well (by his standards), but the Colts have called the third-most pass plays in the league this year, which has given him plenty of chances to rack up fantasy points. Luck should continue to put up points this weekend considering he’s played very well at home over the past three seasons:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a +4.47 Plus/Minus with 71.4 percent Consistency and averaged 24.84 DK points in his last 14 home games. This week, Luck is priced at $7,300 on DraftKings and his eight DK Pro Trends are the most among all QBs. He has a great matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed 3.9 points above salary-based expectations to QBs over the past 12 months.
RB – Frank Gore
Gore has now scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and continues to be the featured back in the Colts offense. He’s averaging a strong 19.25 touches per game this season and has scored 16.48 DK points per game. The main change from last season to this season seems to be the presence of Luck (pun intended). Gore has now played 20 games with the Colts and is averaging 4.05 YPC with Luck under center, compared to just 3.44 YPC when Luck has been sidelined. He’s priced at $6,500 on FanDuel with a 97 percent Bargain Rating for this week’s matchup against the Bears and he has the highest projected floor among all running backs priced under $7,000 on FD. Gore will face a Bears defense that has allowed an atrocious 50.38 percent rush success rate over the past 12 months.
RB – Josh Ferguson
Somehow, Ferguson is second on the Colts with 21 targets through two weeks. While it’s impressive that he’s gained such a large workload, eight of his 21 targets came with the team losing by multiple scores in the fourth quarter of the Colts’ Week 4 loss to the Jaguars. Ferguson is still averaging just 5.1 yards per touch and 7.3 DK points per game this season. While he’s an enticing punt play considering his target share and his minimum price on DK this week, the Bears have shut down similar scat backs in 2016, notably holding Darren Sproles, Lance Dunbar, and Theo Riddick to fewer than 30 receiving yards each.
WR – T.Y. Hilton
Hilton’s targets have surprisingly not changed much without Moncrief in the lineup. His 10 targets per game during the last two weeks are one more than he averaged with Moncrief; the main change for Hilton has been his efficiency. After averaging just 0.23 fantasy points per opportunity through the first two weeks of the season, he’s rebounded and averaged a strong 0.56 fantasy points per opportunity over the past two weeks — good for the 12th-best mark among all wide receivers with at least 10 targets. Hilton will have to overcome a Bears defense in Week 5 that has done a good job at limiting big pass plays this season, allowing just nine passes of 20-plus yards — tied for the fifth-best mark in the league.
WR – Phillip Dorsett
A late blown coverage that led to a 64-yard touchdown saved Dorsett’s fantasy day in Week 4. His three targets last week matched the totals of Chester Rogers and Robert Turbin, and it’s clear at this point that he will not be seeing double-digit targets per game. Dorsett is still averaging an absurd 23.9 yards per reception, but he’s not offering anything other than the occasional big play. However, these big plays may be easier to come by this week, as he could see a lot of Tracy Porter, who has earned PFF’s 87th-highest grade this season among all cornerbacks. Dorsett is priced at $4,800 on DK and has the second-highest projected ceiling among all receivers priced under $5,000 on DK.
WR – Chester Rogers
Rogers caught two of his three targets for 39 yards in Week 4. While he could eventually emerge as a more consistent threat, he’s a very risky play considering his undefined role in the offense. Rogers is minimum-priced on DK and has a -1.7 Projected Plus/Minus.
TE – Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle
Allen was targeted three more times than Doyle in Week 4, but through four weeks both tight ends are proving to be inconsistent fantasy options with low ceilings. Neither TE is ranked among the top-20 TEs in average DK points, and while they’re both averaging at least four targets per game, they haven’t been ‘fantasy-friendly’ targets. Hilton has more red-zone targets than both TEs combined, as Luck has failed to consistently look for his largest receivers close to the goal line. Allen is the better option on DK this week, as his $3,100 price tag comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
