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Week 15 Fantasy WR Breakdown: DeAndre Hopkins to Topple Titans

The Week 15 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 15, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are eight wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • DeAndre Hopkins: $8,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
  • Tyreek Hill: $7,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
  • D.J. Moore: $6,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
  • D.K. Metcalf: $6,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
  • Darius Slayton: $4,700 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
  • Dede Westbrook: $4,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
  • Chris Conley: $3,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
  • Greg Ward: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel

Odds as of Friday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

DeAndre Hopkins: Houston Texans (+3) at Tennessee Titans, 50 Over/Under

This is a great spot for Hopkins, who is a priority for cash games and guaranteed prize pools.

No. 2 wide receiver Will Fuller (hamstring) missed last week and is uncertain to play this week. If he’s out, Hopkins will likely see a significant increase in targets, but even if Fuller is active, Hopkins will still be in play: In quarterback Deshaun Watson’s 38 starts, Hopkins has been almost as productive with Fuller as without him despite seeing fewer targets.

  • Hopkins with Fuller at 0-49% snap rate (18 games): 21.5 DraftKings points, 11.1 targets, 7.8 receptions, 93.3 yards, 0.50 touchdowns, 2.0% snap rate for Fuller
  • Hopkins with Fuller at 50-100% snap rate (18 games): 20.5 DraftKings points, 9.2 targets, 6.1 receptions, 83.6 yards, 0.83 touchdowns, 75.8% snap rate for Fuller

One way or another, Hopkins is likely to get his.

Despite a painful stretch in Weeks 2-6 that saw Hopkins average just 12.4 DraftKings points per game, he’s now the No. 3 wide receiver for the year with 19.7 DraftKings and 137.5 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com).

Over the past two months, Hopkins has been on fire with five fantasy WR1 performances in seven games (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

No wide receiver in the league has more DraftKings points per game over the past three years than Hopkins does with 21.0 (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

Hopkins has a great matchup. The Titans have a funnel defense that ranks No. 5 in rush defense DVOA but No. 23 in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders), and that ranking might be giving them too much credit.

No. 1 cornerback Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9, and since then the Titans defense has been No. 30 in pass success rate with a 50% mark (per Sharp Football Stats).

And it gets worse: Last week, the Titans were without No. 2 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (foot), and for the past two weeks, they have been without backup cornerback LeShaun Sims (ankle). Both guys are uncertain to play against the Texans.

If Jackson and Sims are out, the Titans will likely start special-teamer Tye Smith and recently added past-his-prime veteran Tramaine Brock at perimeter corner. Hopkins is likely to line up most against Smith — who is vastly overmatched — but regardless of whichever corner Hopkins faces on any given snap, he will be in a position to win.

The Texans are underdogs, but that doesn’t concern me. I think they will be able to put up points. In 16 games as a dog with quarterback Deshaun Watson, the Texans are 11-5 against the spread, good for a 35.2% return on investment (per Bet Labs).



In his two divisional matchups with the Titans last year, Hopkins averaged 19.2 DraftKings points, 92 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.

Hopkins has position-high median and ceiling projections on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales Model for the second week in a row.

In our Week 15 fantasy football rankings, Hopkins is locked in as a top-five receiver.

Tyreek Hill: Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Denver Broncos, 45.5 O/U

This is not a great matchup for Hill. The Broncos have held opposing wide receivers to 24.2 FanDuel points per game, the sixth-lowest mark in the league.

But this matchup also is probably not as bad for Hill as it might seem. Hill has run 50.9% of his routes from the slot this year, which means that he’s likely to avoid No. 1 cornerback Chris Harris Jr. for much of the game.

Although Harris used to play in the slot, where he was an All-Pro defender, this year the Broncos have used him almost exclusively as a perimeter shadow man, rarely letting him line up in the middle.

So Hill will likely see Harris whenever he’s lined up out wide, but in the slot, he’s likely to face converted safety Will Parks, who has allowed a 72% catch rate this year and has a subpar 59.5 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus).

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Broncos cornerback Chris Harris (25), Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10).

In his Week 7 matchup against the Broncos, Hill had 3-74-1 receiving against the Broncos on five targets with quarterback Matt Moore playing most of the game.

It’s been a very uneven season for Hill: He suffered a shoulder injury early in Week 1, missed Weeks 2-5, returned in Week 6, played most of Weeks 7-9 without quarterback Patrick Mahomes, got Mahomes back in Week 10, suffered a hamstring injury in Week 11 and then got the bye in Week 12. Not till Weeks 13-14 did Hill have full back-to-back games with Mahomes.

And he didn’t do all that well over the past two weeks with just 11-117-0 receiving and 3-4-0 rushing. But for the year, he still has four fantasy WR1 performances in seven games.

And I’m not worried about his recent performance: In Week 13, a big game wasn’t needed from Hill as the Chiefs cruised to a 40-9 victory over the Raiders, and in Week 14, Hill faced the Patriots and their No. 1 pass defense.

Hill is still very much his top-tier self. In his four full games this year with Mahomes, Hill has averaged 90.3 yards and 0.75 touchdowns on 11.3 targets, 6.8 receptions and 1.8 carries, good for 16.9 FanDuel points per game. He has provided good value with his +4.73 Plus/Minus in these games.

In his 22 full career games with Mahomes, Hill has averaged 17.4 FanDuel points per game.

For the year, Hill is No. 4 in the league with 133.6 air yards and yards after the catch per game. If you remove his two partial games, Hill is No. 1 with 160.3.

Hill is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +2.66 Projected Plus/Minus and eight Pro Trends.

D.J. Moore: Carolina Panthers (+6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks, 49 O/U

If I were jazz saxophonist John Jermaine and could write a song about Moore called “Hot & Heavy,” I’d do it.

Since the Week 7 bye, Moore has enjoyed a significant surge in usage (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

With that volume he has amassed 45-636-3 receiving and 3-5-0 rushing lines in seven games, and over that span he’s been the No. 6 fantasy wide receiver with 14.9 FanDuel points per game.

For the season, Moore is No. 7 in the league with 127.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game, and if Moore finishes the season at his 1,305.9-yard pace, he will find himself in an utterly elite historical cohort of 22-year-old second-year receivers that includes Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks.

The future is bright for Moore, and that future is already here.

There’s nothing especially exploitable about the Seahawks — they’re No. 15 in pass defense DVOA — but the Seahawks play sides with the cornerbacks, and Moore has run 57.7% of his routes out wide to the left, so he’s likely to face right cornerback Tre Flowers for most of the game, and that’s a matchup Moore can win.

For the year, Flowers has a subpar 49.0 PFF coverage grade and has allowed a 64.0% catch rate. When he’s been heavily attacked (eight-plus targets), he’s been exposed.

  • Week 1 (Bengals): 13 targets, 10-170-1 receiving
  • Week 10 (49ers): Nine targets, 5-91-0 receiving
  • Week 12 (Eagles): 13 targets, 9-99-0 receiving

With as much volume as Moore has gotten recently and as exploitable as Flowers has been, Moore seems likely to see a steady stream of targets once again.

Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and Moore and quarterback Kyle Allen have had a 0.53 correlation in production over the past year. If Moore has a big game, Allen might as well. For GPPs, use our Lineup Builder to stack Moore with with passer.

Moore is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Freedman Model for FanDuel, where he trails only Tyreek Hill with his six Pro Trends.

D.K. Metcalf: Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers, 49 O/U

At a glance, the past four games have not been great for Metcalf. In not one of them has he been even a fantasy WR2.

But I’m not at all discouraged. In Week 10, he faced the staunch 49ers secondary and got 70 yards while running most of his routes against emerging cornerback Emmanuel Moseley. In Week 14, he got shadow coverage from cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and yet he still put up 78 yards against the Rams.

Metcalf is inconsistent, and he still has a fairly limited route tree, but he’s pacing for 963.7 yards and 6.15 touchdowns. For a rookie, that’s a great year. Metcalf has the makings of a star.

Since tight end Will Dissly (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6, Metcalf has averaged 7.4 targets per game, and while that’s not a big number, it’s sufficient, and Metcalf’s opportunities tend to be of the high-value variety: He leads the league with 14 end-zone targets and has a respectable 13.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT).

DK Metcalf

USA Today Sports. Pictured: D.K. Metcalf

Metcalf doesn’t have a great matchup. The Panthers are No. 8 in pass defense DVOA, and he’s likely to see shadow coverage from cornerback James Bradberry, who has allowed a catch rate of just 59.5% for his career.

But the matchup also isn’t terrifying: The Panthers have allowed the eighth-most FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers with 31.5 per game, and Bradberry can be prone to the big play.

In Weeks 5-6 & 11-12 — when Bradberry was the primary defender responsible for D.J. Chark, Mike Evans, Julio Jones and Michael Thomas — those guys had strong 8-164-2, 9-96-0, 6-91-0 and 10-101-1 receiving performances. Bradberry is beatable, and Metcalf is similar to the guys who have gotten the best of him.

Metcalf is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel, where he has a robust 96% Bargain Rating.

Darius Slayton: New York Giants (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, 46.5 O/U

For Slayton, it’s all about the matchup: The Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA. They are utterly exploitable right now.

The Dolphins produce Millionaire Maker wide receivers the way a mint prints sheets of $100 bills.

This year, the Dolphins have allowed five — FIVE!!! — different wide receivers to score multiple touchdowns in a game.

It’s hard to describe just how disfigured the Dolphins secondary is. Here’s how their secondary has changed from Week 1 to now.

  • Right cornerback: Xavien Howard –> Ryan Lewis
  • Left cornerback: Eric Rowe –> Nik Needham
  • Slot cornerback: Minkah Fitzpatrick –> Jomal Wiltz
  • Strong safety: Reshad Jones –> Eric Rowe
  • Free safety: Bobby McCain –> Adrian Colbert

At corner, the Dolphins are starting three undrafted third-stringers. At safety, they’re using a converted corner who had never played the position till Week 6 and a third-year washout who wasn’t on the team till Week 12.

These guys give up more points than the Hufflepuff quidditch team.

And Slayton — despite being a fifth-round rookie — is a talented player. In evaluating rookies, I like to look at their peak performances to get a sense of their long-term prospects, and Slayton stands out.

He has three games with at least 50 yards and two touchdowns receiving. The only rookies with more such games since 1978 — when the league went to a 16-game regular season — are Randy Moss and John Jefferson, both whom were named to multiple All-Pro teams.

And there are four other rookies with exactly three 50-yard, multi-touchdown games: Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, Roy Williams and Chris Sanders. While Sanders did little after his rookie season, the other three all had at least one campaign with 1,300 yards.

Slayton is a legit receiver. Since becoming a full-time player in Week 5, he’s averaged 15.7 DraftKings points per game with two massive fantasy WR1 performances: Just last week, he was the No. 3 receiver with 35.4 DraftKings points on 5-154-2 receiving.

Slayton is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has a good 91% Bargain Rating.

Dede Westbrook: Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Oakland Raiders, 45.5 O/U

There are four big reasons to like Westbrook this week.

First, No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) is dealing with an injury and seems unlikely to play this week, so Westbrook could see a boost in targets.

Additionally, his injury wasn’t made public until after Week 15 salaries had already been set, so Westbrook is significantly discounted relative to his expected usage without Chark.

And his target volume has already been pretty decent. Westbrook had a lackluster first month of the season, but since Week 5, he’s had a respectable 8.3 targets per game (minus his injury-shortened Week 8). And with that volume, he’s averaged 60.6 yards on 5.6 receptions.

Most importantly, Westbrook has a good a matchup. The Raiders are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA, and slot cornerback Lamarcus Joyner has a horrible 42.6 PFF coverage grade with a 75.4% catch rate allowed.

Westbrook is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Freedman Model for DraftKings, where he has an exploitable sub-1% projected ownership rate.

Chris Conley: Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Oakland Raiders, 45.5 O/U

The investment thesis for Conley is similar to that of Dede Westbrook.

No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) is likely to be out, and in his absence, Conley will be the top perimeter receiver for the Jags, and given the target increase he should get, he’s cheap.

Conley is far from consistent: In two games this year, he’s scored more than 21 DraftKings points. In the remaining 11 games, he’s had fewer than 14 DraftKings points.

A true boom-or-bust receiver, Conley is one of the most touchdown-dependent producers I’ve ever seen.

  • Touchdown (two games): 22.5 DraftKings points, seven targets, five receptions, 100 yards, one touchdown
  • No touchdown (11 games): 6.7 DraftKings points, 5.3 targets, 2.6 receptions, 39.3 yards, no touchdown

If Conley gets a touchdown, it’s likely to be accompanied with a lot of yards, because a big play is pretty much the only way he’s going to score.

And against the Raiders, he probably has an elevated chance of breaking loose for a long score. They are No. 28 in PFF coverage grade, and against opposing Nos. 1-2 receivers — the guys who normally play on the perimeter, where Conley lines up — the Raiders are Nos. 28 & 32 in pass defense DVOA.

Just last week, No. 1 corner Daryl Worley gave up a 91-yard touchdown to rookie wide receiver A.J. Brown.

And No. 2 cornerback Trayvon Mullen is a rookie with seven games of starting experience.

Either one of these guys could let Conley get deep.

Conley is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan Model for DraftKings, where he has an 87% Bargain Rating.

Greg Ward: Philadelphia Eagles (-5) at Washington Redskins, 39 O/U

Ward is a classic “Monday Night Football discount” player this week.

In Week 14, he played on MNF — after salaries for this week were set — and in that game, No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) suffered a season-ending injury. As a result, Ward is drastically underpriced this week relative to the playing time he’s almost certain to get.

The Eagles are extremely injured and thin at wide receiver. Alshon is out. DeSean Jackson (abdomen, IR) is out. Nelson Agholor (knee) missed Weeks 12 & 14 and hasn’t practiced yet this week. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (hamstring) isn’t officially on the injury report, but he has a lingering leg issue. Mack Hollins and Jordan Matthews are no longer with the team.

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Greg Ward

In the Agholor-less and mostly Alshon-less Weeks 12 & 14, Ward averaged eight targets, five receptions and 37 yards per game. That yardage isn’t gaudy, but that volume is rare in a guy priced at $3,000 on DraftKings.

If Agholor plays, Ward will be far too risky to roster, but if Agholor is out, Ward will play as the No. 2 wide receiver, and in that role last week, he had an 86% snap rate.

In Agholor’s absence, Ward is a very real option for a stars-and-scrubs lineup construction that requires you to pay down at the position, and he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner and Raybon Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +4.18 Projected Plus/Minus.

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,700 DK, $8,400 FD): Teammate Mike Evans (hamstring) is doubtful to play, so Godwin could see a boost in targets. The second-year slot superstar is the No. 2 fantasy wide receiver with 16.8 FanDuel points per game, and he’s No. 6 with 128.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game. The Lions have allowed a league-high 474.8 air yards and yards after the catch per game to opposing teams, and Godwin has position-high floor projection on FanDuel.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($7,600 DK, $7,800 FD): Since returning from injury in Week 9, Adams has averaged 9.8 targets per game, and although he was just 4-36-0 receiving against the Bears in Week 1, last year he averaged 22.4 DraftKings points against them in two divisional matchups.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($7,200 DK, $7,900 FD): For the year, Golladay is No. 1 with 14 end-zone targets and 10 receiving touchdowns, and he’s No. 5 with 130.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game. Despite playing with third-string rookie quarterback David Blough, he’s averaged 23.3 DraftKings points per game over the past two weeks. The Buccaneers have allowed an NFL-high 478.7 air yards and yards after the catch per game to opposing teams. With No. 2 wide receiver Marvin Jones (ankle, IR) done for the year, Golladay should see more targets.

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD): Since Week 6, Edelman has had eight mostly Josh Gordon-less games, and in that span he is the No. 3 wide receiver with 20.5 DraftKings points and has averaged 11.8 targets, 7.6 receptions, 84.3 receiving yards and an elite 144.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game. The Bengals are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA.

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($7,000 DK, $7,500 FD): The 49ers are No. 2 in PFF coverage grade, but Julio will have a reduced ownership rate because of the tough matchup, and he could see extra targets with No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (abdomen, IR) on the sideline. Ever elite, Jones is No. 2 with 139.3 air yards and yards after the catch per game, and he has a position-high ceiling projection on FanDuel.

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears ($6,800 DK, $8,000 FD): A-Rob has been riding high on the Mitch Trubisky roller coaster over the past three weeks with 19-265-4 receiving, ranking as the No. 3 wide receiver with 24.2 DraftKings points per game over that time. In Week 1 against the Packers, he had a 7-102-0 performance on 13 targets.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns ($6,700 DK, $7,400 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Landry has averaged 18.9 DraftKings points on 10.1 targets per game, and he is slated for a matchup with rookie cornerback Byron Murphy, who has allowed an NFL-high eight receiving touchdowns.

Emmanuel Sanders, San Francisco 49ers ($6,600 DK, $6,900 FD): In his seven games with the 49ers, Sanders hasn’t been a consistent producer, but that’s primarily because of a ribs injury that limited him in Weeks 10-12. In his four healthy 49ers games, Sanders has averaged 18.2 DraftKings points, and he is now slated for a matchup with backup cornerback Blidi-Wreh Wilson because No. 1 corner Desmond Trufant (arm, IR) is out. The 49ers have a slate-high 29.75-point implied Vegas total.

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($6,400 DK, $6,900 FD): Parker (concussion) left Week 14 early with a head injury, and I am skeptical that he will clear the league’s protocol in time to play this weekend, but if he’s active, he’ll have a great matchup against the Giants, who are No. 30 in PFF coverage grade. In his four full games without wide receiver Preston Williams (knee, IR), Parker has averaged 10.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, 113.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns ($6,400 DK, $7,200 FD): Beckham has just two 100-yard games this year and is 5-68-0 receiving over the past two weeks. But the Cardinals have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 41.6 per game and are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade.

Aug 23, 2019; Tampa, FL, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (13) during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams ($6,200 DK, $7,500 FD): Since the Week 9 bye, Woods is the No. 3 wide receiver with 22.8 DraftKings points per game. Over that time, he’s averaged 11.8 targets, 8.3 receptions and 115.5 yards receiving per game. The Rams have moved from +4 to -1.5 and seem likely to put up points, and Woods has a position-high seven Pro Trends on DraftKings.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans ($6,000 DK, $6,200 FD): Brown is coming off a massive 5-153-2 performance, and he leads the Titans with 38 targets, 25 receptions, 506 yards, 730 air yards and yards after the catch and four touchdowns receiving in quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s seven starts. The Raiders are No. 27 in pass defense DVOA.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos ($5,900 DK, $7,000 FD): Since the Emmanuel Sanders trade, Sutton has either 100 yards or a touchdown in three of six games, and he has a position-high seven Pro Trends on DraftKings.

Golden Tate, New York Giants ($5,900 DK, $6,300 FD): In his first game with quarterback Eli Manning last week, Tate was just 1-11-0 receiving on five targets, but he could bounce back this week against the Dolphins, who are No. 31 in PFF coverage grade. In the slot, Tate has a great matchup against undrafted cornerback Jomal Wiltz, who has a 40.9 PFF coverage grade.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD): Since Week 10, Deebo has averaged 17.9 DraftKings points per game and had either 100 scrimmage yards or a touchdown every week. The Falcons are No. 26 in pass defense DVOA and No. 30 against No. 2 wide receivers in particular.

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys ($5,700 DK, $6,800 FD): In the six games since the Week 8 bye, Gallup leads the team with 52 targets, 484 yards receiving and 770 air yards and yards after the catch. The Rams are No. 4 in PFF coverage grade, but Gallup will have a single-digit ownership rate because of the matchup, and with No. 1 cornerback Jalen Ramsey shadowing teammate Amari Cooper, Gallup will face less imposing cornerback Troy Hill.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD): Fuller (hamstring) missed last week, but he has practiced on a limited basis this week and is tentatively expected to play. In his full 18 games with quarterback Deshaun Watson, Fuller has averaged 17.3 DraftKings points, and he has an exploitable matchup against the Titans, who are No. 23 in pass defense DVOA and likely to be without their top perimeter corners.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD): For the past five games, Kirk has played primarily wide to the right, and No. 1 cornerback Denzel Ward has lined up almost exclusively on the left this year, so although this is not technically a shadow matchup, Kirk is going to face the emerging star corner for most of the game. But since returning from injury in Week 8, Kirk has averaged 8.5 targets per game and has been at least a fantasy WR2 in three of six weeks.

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants ($5,400 DK, $5,900 FD): Since returning from injury in Week 12, Shepard has averaged just 9.8 DraftKings points per game, but for the season, he has a respectable eight targets per game, and his matchup is immaculate. The Dolphins are No. 29 in pass defense DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers.

Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears ($5,100 DK, $6,300 FD): No. 2 wide receiver Taylor Gabriel (concussion) has missed most of the past three weeks, and he’s yet to return to practice. In his absence, Miller has averaged 17.6 DraftKings points on 8.7 targets per game.

Tyrell Williams, Oakland Raiders ($4,800 DK, $5,600 FD): Williams has averaged just 36 scoreless yards per game over the past month, but he could see more usage with slot receiver Hunter Renfrow (ribs) on the sideline. Despite their formerly fearsome reputation, the Jags are No. 29 in PFF coverage grade, and No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye has steadily declined over the past few years, dropping from an elite 89.9 PFF coverage grade in 2016 to a below-average 57.2 mark this year.

Allen Hurns, Miami Dolphins ($4,700 DK, $5,800 FD): If teammates DeVante Parker (concussion) and Albert Wilson (concussion) don’t clear the league’s protocol this week, then Hurns might play as the team’s No. 1 receiver. Last week, with Parker and Wilson’s early exits, Hurns hit season-high marks with eight targets, five receptions and 68 yards. The Giants are No. 28 in pass defense DVOA, and in the slot, Hurns has a great matchup against undrafted second-year corner Grant Haley, who has allowed an 86.0% catch rate this year.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,600 DK, $6,200 FD): Williams has averaged a strong 81.8 receiving yards over the past six games, but his price has stayed static. Williams finally found the end zone last week, but after scoring 11 touchdowns last year, he is still due for more positive touchdown regression. Williams is still pacing for his first 1,000-yard season, and he has increased his yardage per target from 10.1 to 11.7. The Vikings have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 40.5 per game.

Breshad Perriman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,500 DK, $6,400 FD): With teammate Mike Evans (hamstring) doubtful, Perriman is likely to serve as the team’s No. 2 receiver. With Evans’ first-quarter exit, Perriman had a season-high 83% snap rate last week and was 3-70-1 receiving. The Lions are No. 25 in pass defense DVOA and No. 27 specifically against No. 2 wide receivers.

Danny Amendola, Detroit Lions ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD): No. 2 wide receiver Marvin Jones (ankle, IR) is out, so Amendola should have a larger target share. In his two weeks with third-string rookie quarterback David Blough, Amendola has averaged a scoreless 33 yards on four receptions, but his eight targets per game is notable. Amendola has an exploitable matchup against rookie cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has allowed a 71.4% catch rate in his four games as the primary slot defender for the Bucs.

Isaiah Ford, Miami Dolphins ($3,700 DK, $5,500 FD): Teammates DeVante Parker (concussion) and Albert Wilson (concussion) are uncertain to play this week. If they are out, Ford will be in play. Last week he had a career-best 6-92-0 stat line on nine targets as an in-game fill-in for Parker and Wilson. The Giants have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 41.5 per game, and Ford has an elite 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.

Justin Watson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,700 DK, $4,500 FD): Priced at the stone minimum on FanDuel, Watson intrigues me. Last week he had a career-best 5-59-1 stat line on eight targets as an in-game fill-in for Mike Evans (hamstring), whose absence could gift a lot of playing time to Watson this week. A 2018 Ivy League fifth-rounder with an elite athletic profile, Watson dominated as a senior with 81-1,083-14 receiving, good for a 50.5% market share of receiving yards and 70% share of receiving touchdowns. Watson’s upside should not be ignored.

Keke Coutee, Houston Texans ($3,400 DK, $5,400 FD): Last week, Coutee hit season-high marks with eight targets, five receptions and 68 yards in the absence of teammate Will Fuller (hamstring). If Fuller is out again, Coutee will be an option. The Titans are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against supplementary receivers.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Philadelphia Eagles ($3,300 DK, $5,500 FD): No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) is out, and No. 2 wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) is uncertain to play, so JJAW could see significant playing time this week. The Redskins are No. 23 in PFF coverage grade, and JJAW has a position-high 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.

Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,000 DK, $4,900 FD): No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) is unlikely to play, so Cole will slide into the starting lineup. In his one game this year with a snap rate of at least 60%, Cole hit season-high marks with six targets, five receptions and 80 yards. The Raiders pass defense is the Raiders pass defense.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: DeAndre Hopkins
Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

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The Week 15 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 15, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are eight wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • DeAndre Hopkins: $8,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
  • Tyreek Hill: $7,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
  • D.J. Moore: $6,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
  • D.K. Metcalf: $6,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
  • Darius Slayton: $4,700 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
  • Dede Westbrook: $4,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
  • Chris Conley: $3,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
  • Greg Ward: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel

Odds as of Friday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

DeAndre Hopkins: Houston Texans (+3) at Tennessee Titans, 50 Over/Under

This is a great spot for Hopkins, who is a priority for cash games and guaranteed prize pools.

No. 2 wide receiver Will Fuller (hamstring) missed last week and is uncertain to play this week. If he’s out, Hopkins will likely see a significant increase in targets, but even if Fuller is active, Hopkins will still be in play: In quarterback Deshaun Watson’s 38 starts, Hopkins has been almost as productive with Fuller as without him despite seeing fewer targets.

  • Hopkins with Fuller at 0-49% snap rate (18 games): 21.5 DraftKings points, 11.1 targets, 7.8 receptions, 93.3 yards, 0.50 touchdowns, 2.0% snap rate for Fuller
  • Hopkins with Fuller at 50-100% snap rate (18 games): 20.5 DraftKings points, 9.2 targets, 6.1 receptions, 83.6 yards, 0.83 touchdowns, 75.8% snap rate for Fuller

One way or another, Hopkins is likely to get his.

Despite a painful stretch in Weeks 2-6 that saw Hopkins average just 12.4 DraftKings points per game, he’s now the No. 3 wide receiver for the year with 19.7 DraftKings and 137.5 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com).

Over the past two months, Hopkins has been on fire with five fantasy WR1 performances in seven games (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

No wide receiver in the league has more DraftKings points per game over the past three years than Hopkins does with 21.0 (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

Hopkins has a great matchup. The Titans have a funnel defense that ranks No. 5 in rush defense DVOA but No. 23 in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders), and that ranking might be giving them too much credit.

No. 1 cornerback Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9, and since then the Titans defense has been No. 30 in pass success rate with a 50% mark (per Sharp Football Stats).

And it gets worse: Last week, the Titans were without No. 2 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (foot), and for the past two weeks, they have been without backup cornerback LeShaun Sims (ankle). Both guys are uncertain to play against the Texans.

If Jackson and Sims are out, the Titans will likely start special-teamer Tye Smith and recently added past-his-prime veteran Tramaine Brock at perimeter corner. Hopkins is likely to line up most against Smith — who is vastly overmatched — but regardless of whichever corner Hopkins faces on any given snap, he will be in a position to win.

The Texans are underdogs, but that doesn’t concern me. I think they will be able to put up points. In 16 games as a dog with quarterback Deshaun Watson, the Texans are 11-5 against the spread, good for a 35.2% return on investment (per Bet Labs).



In his two divisional matchups with the Titans last year, Hopkins averaged 19.2 DraftKings points, 92 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.

Hopkins has position-high median and ceiling projections on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales Model for the second week in a row.

In our Week 15 fantasy football rankings, Hopkins is locked in as a top-five receiver.

Tyreek Hill: Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Denver Broncos, 45.5 O/U

This is not a great matchup for Hill. The Broncos have held opposing wide receivers to 24.2 FanDuel points per game, the sixth-lowest mark in the league.

But this matchup also is probably not as bad for Hill as it might seem. Hill has run 50.9% of his routes from the slot this year, which means that he’s likely to avoid No. 1 cornerback Chris Harris Jr. for much of the game.

Although Harris used to play in the slot, where he was an All-Pro defender, this year the Broncos have used him almost exclusively as a perimeter shadow man, rarely letting him line up in the middle.

So Hill will likely see Harris whenever he’s lined up out wide, but in the slot, he’s likely to face converted safety Will Parks, who has allowed a 72% catch rate this year and has a subpar 59.5 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus).

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Broncos cornerback Chris Harris (25), Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10).

In his Week 7 matchup against the Broncos, Hill had 3-74-1 receiving against the Broncos on five targets with quarterback Matt Moore playing most of the game.

It’s been a very uneven season for Hill: He suffered a shoulder injury early in Week 1, missed Weeks 2-5, returned in Week 6, played most of Weeks 7-9 without quarterback Patrick Mahomes, got Mahomes back in Week 10, suffered a hamstring injury in Week 11 and then got the bye in Week 12. Not till Weeks 13-14 did Hill have full back-to-back games with Mahomes.

And he didn’t do all that well over the past two weeks with just 11-117-0 receiving and 3-4-0 rushing. But for the year, he still has four fantasy WR1 performances in seven games.

And I’m not worried about his recent performance: In Week 13, a big game wasn’t needed from Hill as the Chiefs cruised to a 40-9 victory over the Raiders, and in Week 14, Hill faced the Patriots and their No. 1 pass defense.

Hill is still very much his top-tier self. In his four full games this year with Mahomes, Hill has averaged 90.3 yards and 0.75 touchdowns on 11.3 targets, 6.8 receptions and 1.8 carries, good for 16.9 FanDuel points per game. He has provided good value with his +4.73 Plus/Minus in these games.

In his 22 full career games with Mahomes, Hill has averaged 17.4 FanDuel points per game.

For the year, Hill is No. 4 in the league with 133.6 air yards and yards after the catch per game. If you remove his two partial games, Hill is No. 1 with 160.3.

Hill is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +2.66 Projected Plus/Minus and eight Pro Trends.

D.J. Moore: Carolina Panthers (+6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks, 49 O/U

If I were jazz saxophonist John Jermaine and could write a song about Moore called “Hot & Heavy,” I’d do it.

Since the Week 7 bye, Moore has enjoyed a significant surge in usage (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

With that volume he has amassed 45-636-3 receiving and 3-5-0 rushing lines in seven games, and over that span he’s been the No. 6 fantasy wide receiver with 14.9 FanDuel points per game.

For the season, Moore is No. 7 in the league with 127.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game, and if Moore finishes the season at his 1,305.9-yard pace, he will find himself in an utterly elite historical cohort of 22-year-old second-year receivers that includes Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks.

The future is bright for Moore, and that future is already here.

There’s nothing especially exploitable about the Seahawks — they’re No. 15 in pass defense DVOA — but the Seahawks play sides with the cornerbacks, and Moore has run 57.7% of his routes out wide to the left, so he’s likely to face right cornerback Tre Flowers for most of the game, and that’s a matchup Moore can win.

For the year, Flowers has a subpar 49.0 PFF coverage grade and has allowed a 64.0% catch rate. When he’s been heavily attacked (eight-plus targets), he’s been exposed.

  • Week 1 (Bengals): 13 targets, 10-170-1 receiving
  • Week 10 (49ers): Nine targets, 5-91-0 receiving
  • Week 12 (Eagles): 13 targets, 9-99-0 receiving

With as much volume as Moore has gotten recently and as exploitable as Flowers has been, Moore seems likely to see a steady stream of targets once again.

Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and Moore and quarterback Kyle Allen have had a 0.53 correlation in production over the past year. If Moore has a big game, Allen might as well. For GPPs, use our Lineup Builder to stack Moore with with passer.

Moore is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Freedman Model for FanDuel, where he trails only Tyreek Hill with his six Pro Trends.

D.K. Metcalf: Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers, 49 O/U

At a glance, the past four games have not been great for Metcalf. In not one of them has he been even a fantasy WR2.

But I’m not at all discouraged. In Week 10, he faced the staunch 49ers secondary and got 70 yards while running most of his routes against emerging cornerback Emmanuel Moseley. In Week 14, he got shadow coverage from cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and yet he still put up 78 yards against the Rams.

Metcalf is inconsistent, and he still has a fairly limited route tree, but he’s pacing for 963.7 yards and 6.15 touchdowns. For a rookie, that’s a great year. Metcalf has the makings of a star.

Since tight end Will Dissly (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6, Metcalf has averaged 7.4 targets per game, and while that’s not a big number, it’s sufficient, and Metcalf’s opportunities tend to be of the high-value variety: He leads the league with 14 end-zone targets and has a respectable 13.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT).

DK Metcalf

USA Today Sports. Pictured: D.K. Metcalf

Metcalf doesn’t have a great matchup. The Panthers are No. 8 in pass defense DVOA, and he’s likely to see shadow coverage from cornerback James Bradberry, who has allowed a catch rate of just 59.5% for his career.

But the matchup also isn’t terrifying: The Panthers have allowed the eighth-most FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers with 31.5 per game, and Bradberry can be prone to the big play.

In Weeks 5-6 & 11-12 — when Bradberry was the primary defender responsible for D.J. Chark, Mike Evans, Julio Jones and Michael Thomas — those guys had strong 8-164-2, 9-96-0, 6-91-0 and 10-101-1 receiving performances. Bradberry is beatable, and Metcalf is similar to the guys who have gotten the best of him.

Metcalf is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel, where he has a robust 96% Bargain Rating.

Darius Slayton: New York Giants (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, 46.5 O/U

For Slayton, it’s all about the matchup: The Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA. They are utterly exploitable right now.

The Dolphins produce Millionaire Maker wide receivers the way a mint prints sheets of $100 bills.

This year, the Dolphins have allowed five — FIVE!!! — different wide receivers to score multiple touchdowns in a game.

It’s hard to describe just how disfigured the Dolphins secondary is. Here’s how their secondary has changed from Week 1 to now.

  • Right cornerback: Xavien Howard –> Ryan Lewis
  • Left cornerback: Eric Rowe –> Nik Needham
  • Slot cornerback: Minkah Fitzpatrick –> Jomal Wiltz
  • Strong safety: Reshad Jones –> Eric Rowe
  • Free safety: Bobby McCain –> Adrian Colbert

At corner, the Dolphins are starting three undrafted third-stringers. At safety, they’re using a converted corner who had never played the position till Week 6 and a third-year washout who wasn’t on the team till Week 12.

These guys give up more points than the Hufflepuff quidditch team.

And Slayton — despite being a fifth-round rookie — is a talented player. In evaluating rookies, I like to look at their peak performances to get a sense of their long-term prospects, and Slayton stands out.

He has three games with at least 50 yards and two touchdowns receiving. The only rookies with more such games since 1978 — when the league went to a 16-game regular season — are Randy Moss and John Jefferson, both whom were named to multiple All-Pro teams.

And there are four other rookies with exactly three 50-yard, multi-touchdown games: Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, Roy Williams and Chris Sanders. While Sanders did little after his rookie season, the other three all had at least one campaign with 1,300 yards.

Slayton is a legit receiver. Since becoming a full-time player in Week 5, he’s averaged 15.7 DraftKings points per game with two massive fantasy WR1 performances: Just last week, he was the No. 3 receiver with 35.4 DraftKings points on 5-154-2 receiving.

Slayton is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has a good 91% Bargain Rating.

Dede Westbrook: Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Oakland Raiders, 45.5 O/U

There are four big reasons to like Westbrook this week.

First, No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) is dealing with an injury and seems unlikely to play this week, so Westbrook could see a boost in targets.

Additionally, his injury wasn’t made public until after Week 15 salaries had already been set, so Westbrook is significantly discounted relative to his expected usage without Chark.

And his target volume has already been pretty decent. Westbrook had a lackluster first month of the season, but since Week 5, he’s had a respectable 8.3 targets per game (minus his injury-shortened Week 8). And with that volume, he’s averaged 60.6 yards on 5.6 receptions.

Most importantly, Westbrook has a good a matchup. The Raiders are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA, and slot cornerback Lamarcus Joyner has a horrible 42.6 PFF coverage grade with a 75.4% catch rate allowed.

Westbrook is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Freedman Model for DraftKings, where he has an exploitable sub-1% projected ownership rate.

Chris Conley: Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Oakland Raiders, 45.5 O/U

The investment thesis for Conley is similar to that of Dede Westbrook.

No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) is likely to be out, and in his absence, Conley will be the top perimeter receiver for the Jags, and given the target increase he should get, he’s cheap.

Conley is far from consistent: In two games this year, he’s scored more than 21 DraftKings points. In the remaining 11 games, he’s had fewer than 14 DraftKings points.

A true boom-or-bust receiver, Conley is one of the most touchdown-dependent producers I’ve ever seen.

  • Touchdown (two games): 22.5 DraftKings points, seven targets, five receptions, 100 yards, one touchdown
  • No touchdown (11 games): 6.7 DraftKings points, 5.3 targets, 2.6 receptions, 39.3 yards, no touchdown

If Conley gets a touchdown, it’s likely to be accompanied with a lot of yards, because a big play is pretty much the only way he’s going to score.

And against the Raiders, he probably has an elevated chance of breaking loose for a long score. They are No. 28 in PFF coverage grade, and against opposing Nos. 1-2 receivers — the guys who normally play on the perimeter, where Conley lines up — the Raiders are Nos. 28 & 32 in pass defense DVOA.

Just last week, No. 1 corner Daryl Worley gave up a 91-yard touchdown to rookie wide receiver A.J. Brown.

And No. 2 cornerback Trayvon Mullen is a rookie with seven games of starting experience.

Either one of these guys could let Conley get deep.

Conley is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan Model for DraftKings, where he has an 87% Bargain Rating.

Greg Ward: Philadelphia Eagles (-5) at Washington Redskins, 39 O/U

Ward is a classic “Monday Night Football discount” player this week.

In Week 14, he played on MNF — after salaries for this week were set — and in that game, No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) suffered a season-ending injury. As a result, Ward is drastically underpriced this week relative to the playing time he’s almost certain to get.

The Eagles are extremely injured and thin at wide receiver. Alshon is out. DeSean Jackson (abdomen, IR) is out. Nelson Agholor (knee) missed Weeks 12 & 14 and hasn’t practiced yet this week. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (hamstring) isn’t officially on the injury report, but he has a lingering leg issue. Mack Hollins and Jordan Matthews are no longer with the team.

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Greg Ward

In the Agholor-less and mostly Alshon-less Weeks 12 & 14, Ward averaged eight targets, five receptions and 37 yards per game. That yardage isn’t gaudy, but that volume is rare in a guy priced at $3,000 on DraftKings.

If Agholor plays, Ward will be far too risky to roster, but if Agholor is out, Ward will play as the No. 2 wide receiver, and in that role last week, he had an 86% snap rate.

In Agholor’s absence, Ward is a very real option for a stars-and-scrubs lineup construction that requires you to pay down at the position, and he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner and Raybon Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +4.18 Projected Plus/Minus.

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,700 DK, $8,400 FD): Teammate Mike Evans (hamstring) is doubtful to play, so Godwin could see a boost in targets. The second-year slot superstar is the No. 2 fantasy wide receiver with 16.8 FanDuel points per game, and he’s No. 6 with 128.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game. The Lions have allowed a league-high 474.8 air yards and yards after the catch per game to opposing teams, and Godwin has position-high floor projection on FanDuel.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($7,600 DK, $7,800 FD): Since returning from injury in Week 9, Adams has averaged 9.8 targets per game, and although he was just 4-36-0 receiving against the Bears in Week 1, last year he averaged 22.4 DraftKings points against them in two divisional matchups.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($7,200 DK, $7,900 FD): For the year, Golladay is No. 1 with 14 end-zone targets and 10 receiving touchdowns, and he’s No. 5 with 130.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game. Despite playing with third-string rookie quarterback David Blough, he’s averaged 23.3 DraftKings points per game over the past two weeks. The Buccaneers have allowed an NFL-high 478.7 air yards and yards after the catch per game to opposing teams. With No. 2 wide receiver Marvin Jones (ankle, IR) done for the year, Golladay should see more targets.

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD): Since Week 6, Edelman has had eight mostly Josh Gordon-less games, and in that span he is the No. 3 wide receiver with 20.5 DraftKings points and has averaged 11.8 targets, 7.6 receptions, 84.3 receiving yards and an elite 144.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game. The Bengals are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA.

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($7,000 DK, $7,500 FD): The 49ers are No. 2 in PFF coverage grade, but Julio will have a reduced ownership rate because of the tough matchup, and he could see extra targets with No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (abdomen, IR) on the sideline. Ever elite, Jones is No. 2 with 139.3 air yards and yards after the catch per game, and he has a position-high ceiling projection on FanDuel.

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears ($6,800 DK, $8,000 FD): A-Rob has been riding high on the Mitch Trubisky roller coaster over the past three weeks with 19-265-4 receiving, ranking as the No. 3 wide receiver with 24.2 DraftKings points per game over that time. In Week 1 against the Packers, he had a 7-102-0 performance on 13 targets.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns ($6,700 DK, $7,400 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Landry has averaged 18.9 DraftKings points on 10.1 targets per game, and he is slated for a matchup with rookie cornerback Byron Murphy, who has allowed an NFL-high eight receiving touchdowns.

Emmanuel Sanders, San Francisco 49ers ($6,600 DK, $6,900 FD): In his seven games with the 49ers, Sanders hasn’t been a consistent producer, but that’s primarily because of a ribs injury that limited him in Weeks 10-12. In his four healthy 49ers games, Sanders has averaged 18.2 DraftKings points, and he is now slated for a matchup with backup cornerback Blidi-Wreh Wilson because No. 1 corner Desmond Trufant (arm, IR) is out. The 49ers have a slate-high 29.75-point implied Vegas total.

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($6,400 DK, $6,900 FD): Parker (concussion) left Week 14 early with a head injury, and I am skeptical that he will clear the league’s protocol in time to play this weekend, but if he’s active, he’ll have a great matchup against the Giants, who are No. 30 in PFF coverage grade. In his four full games without wide receiver Preston Williams (knee, IR), Parker has averaged 10.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, 113.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns ($6,400 DK, $7,200 FD): Beckham has just two 100-yard games this year and is 5-68-0 receiving over the past two weeks. But the Cardinals have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 41.6 per game and are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade.

Aug 23, 2019; Tampa, FL, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (13) during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams ($6,200 DK, $7,500 FD): Since the Week 9 bye, Woods is the No. 3 wide receiver with 22.8 DraftKings points per game. Over that time, he’s averaged 11.8 targets, 8.3 receptions and 115.5 yards receiving per game. The Rams have moved from +4 to -1.5 and seem likely to put up points, and Woods has a position-high seven Pro Trends on DraftKings.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans ($6,000 DK, $6,200 FD): Brown is coming off a massive 5-153-2 performance, and he leads the Titans with 38 targets, 25 receptions, 506 yards, 730 air yards and yards after the catch and four touchdowns receiving in quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s seven starts. The Raiders are No. 27 in pass defense DVOA.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos ($5,900 DK, $7,000 FD): Since the Emmanuel Sanders trade, Sutton has either 100 yards or a touchdown in three of six games, and he has a position-high seven Pro Trends on DraftKings.

Golden Tate, New York Giants ($5,900 DK, $6,300 FD): In his first game with quarterback Eli Manning last week, Tate was just 1-11-0 receiving on five targets, but he could bounce back this week against the Dolphins, who are No. 31 in PFF coverage grade. In the slot, Tate has a great matchup against undrafted cornerback Jomal Wiltz, who has a 40.9 PFF coverage grade.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD): Since Week 10, Deebo has averaged 17.9 DraftKings points per game and had either 100 scrimmage yards or a touchdown every week. The Falcons are No. 26 in pass defense DVOA and No. 30 against No. 2 wide receivers in particular.

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys ($5,700 DK, $6,800 FD): In the six games since the Week 8 bye, Gallup leads the team with 52 targets, 484 yards receiving and 770 air yards and yards after the catch. The Rams are No. 4 in PFF coverage grade, but Gallup will have a single-digit ownership rate because of the matchup, and with No. 1 cornerback Jalen Ramsey shadowing teammate Amari Cooper, Gallup will face less imposing cornerback Troy Hill.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD): Fuller (hamstring) missed last week, but he has practiced on a limited basis this week and is tentatively expected to play. In his full 18 games with quarterback Deshaun Watson, Fuller has averaged 17.3 DraftKings points, and he has an exploitable matchup against the Titans, who are No. 23 in pass defense DVOA and likely to be without their top perimeter corners.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD): For the past five games, Kirk has played primarily wide to the right, and No. 1 cornerback Denzel Ward has lined up almost exclusively on the left this year, so although this is not technically a shadow matchup, Kirk is going to face the emerging star corner for most of the game. But since returning from injury in Week 8, Kirk has averaged 8.5 targets per game and has been at least a fantasy WR2 in three of six weeks.

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants ($5,400 DK, $5,900 FD): Since returning from injury in Week 12, Shepard has averaged just 9.8 DraftKings points per game, but for the season, he has a respectable eight targets per game, and his matchup is immaculate. The Dolphins are No. 29 in pass defense DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers.

Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears ($5,100 DK, $6,300 FD): No. 2 wide receiver Taylor Gabriel (concussion) has missed most of the past three weeks, and he’s yet to return to practice. In his absence, Miller has averaged 17.6 DraftKings points on 8.7 targets per game.

Tyrell Williams, Oakland Raiders ($4,800 DK, $5,600 FD): Williams has averaged just 36 scoreless yards per game over the past month, but he could see more usage with slot receiver Hunter Renfrow (ribs) on the sideline. Despite their formerly fearsome reputation, the Jags are No. 29 in PFF coverage grade, and No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye has steadily declined over the past few years, dropping from an elite 89.9 PFF coverage grade in 2016 to a below-average 57.2 mark this year.

Allen Hurns, Miami Dolphins ($4,700 DK, $5,800 FD): If teammates DeVante Parker (concussion) and Albert Wilson (concussion) don’t clear the league’s protocol this week, then Hurns might play as the team’s No. 1 receiver. Last week, with Parker and Wilson’s early exits, Hurns hit season-high marks with eight targets, five receptions and 68 yards. The Giants are No. 28 in pass defense DVOA, and in the slot, Hurns has a great matchup against undrafted second-year corner Grant Haley, who has allowed an 86.0% catch rate this year.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,600 DK, $6,200 FD): Williams has averaged a strong 81.8 receiving yards over the past six games, but his price has stayed static. Williams finally found the end zone last week, but after scoring 11 touchdowns last year, he is still due for more positive touchdown regression. Williams is still pacing for his first 1,000-yard season, and he has increased his yardage per target from 10.1 to 11.7. The Vikings have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 40.5 per game.

Breshad Perriman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,500 DK, $6,400 FD): With teammate Mike Evans (hamstring) doubtful, Perriman is likely to serve as the team’s No. 2 receiver. With Evans’ first-quarter exit, Perriman had a season-high 83% snap rate last week and was 3-70-1 receiving. The Lions are No. 25 in pass defense DVOA and No. 27 specifically against No. 2 wide receivers.

Danny Amendola, Detroit Lions ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD): No. 2 wide receiver Marvin Jones (ankle, IR) is out, so Amendola should have a larger target share. In his two weeks with third-string rookie quarterback David Blough, Amendola has averaged a scoreless 33 yards on four receptions, but his eight targets per game is notable. Amendola has an exploitable matchup against rookie cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has allowed a 71.4% catch rate in his four games as the primary slot defender for the Bucs.

Isaiah Ford, Miami Dolphins ($3,700 DK, $5,500 FD): Teammates DeVante Parker (concussion) and Albert Wilson (concussion) are uncertain to play this week. If they are out, Ford will be in play. Last week he had a career-best 6-92-0 stat line on nine targets as an in-game fill-in for Parker and Wilson. The Giants have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 41.5 per game, and Ford has an elite 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.

Justin Watson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,700 DK, $4,500 FD): Priced at the stone minimum on FanDuel, Watson intrigues me. Last week he had a career-best 5-59-1 stat line on eight targets as an in-game fill-in for Mike Evans (hamstring), whose absence could gift a lot of playing time to Watson this week. A 2018 Ivy League fifth-rounder with an elite athletic profile, Watson dominated as a senior with 81-1,083-14 receiving, good for a 50.5% market share of receiving yards and 70% share of receiving touchdowns. Watson’s upside should not be ignored.

Keke Coutee, Houston Texans ($3,400 DK, $5,400 FD): Last week, Coutee hit season-high marks with eight targets, five receptions and 68 yards in the absence of teammate Will Fuller (hamstring). If Fuller is out again, Coutee will be an option. The Titans are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against supplementary receivers.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Philadelphia Eagles ($3,300 DK, $5,500 FD): No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) is out, and No. 2 wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) is uncertain to play, so JJAW could see significant playing time this week. The Redskins are No. 23 in PFF coverage grade, and JJAW has a position-high 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.

Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,000 DK, $4,900 FD): No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) is unlikely to play, so Cole will slide into the starting lineup. In his one game this year with a snap rate of at least 60%, Cole hit season-high marks with six targets, five receptions and 80 yards. The Raiders pass defense is the Raiders pass defense.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: DeAndre Hopkins
Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

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About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.