After a modified schedule for Thanksgiving in Week 13, the NFL is back to a more traditional slate of action in Week 14. With the final four teams getting their bye weeks and the typical primetime contests, 11 games are on the main DFS fantasy football slate for Sunday afternoon. Eight of the 11 games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET in a massive wave of action, followed by three divisional matchups in the later window, highlighted by the Packers hosting the Bears. With 22 teams in the player pool, there are plenty of interesting options to consider at every position.
The Buffalo Bills have the highest implied team total on the board as they host the Bengals, followed closely by the Rams against the Cardinals and the Seahawks against the Falcons. The highest over/under on the slate is from the Bills-Bengals game as well. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 14. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jacoby Brissett ($5,700) Arizona Cardinals (+8) vs. Los Angeles Rams (48.5 total)
Brissett takes the top spot in our early look values at quarterback for the third week in a row. His salary continues to rise, but his projections are for him to go over salary-based expectations again this week, even in a tough matchup against the Rams.
Brissett has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback in the evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty, and Raybon, highlighted above. We’ll rely on that three-way aggregate as a general guideline in this post, but you can customize the blend to whatever works best for you if you have access to the models.
Since taking over for the injured Kyler Murray (foot), Brissett has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games. He threw exactly two touchdowns in six of those seven games, including last week against the Buccaneers, when he finished with 23.64 DraftKings points on 301 passing yards, an interception, and his two touchdown passes.
He has been trusted to air it out in most of his starts, attempting at least 40 passes in four straight games and averaging 47.5 pass attempts per contest during that stretch. The Rams are solid against the run, and with the team’s banged-up backfield, Brissett could be forced to carry a heavy workload again this week. He may or may not be the long-term answer for Arizona or any team, but he has proven he can put up good numbers in his current circumstances in this offense.
His salary has climbed a little bit over the last few weeks, but he’s still the best value QB available and allows plenty of salary flexibility for the rest of your roster. You can pair him with Trey McBride at tight end or target his cheap receivers. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch would get more time if Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) misses this week’s matchup, which looks likely early in the week.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Adonai Mitchell ($4,600) New York Jets (+3) vs. Miami Dolphins (40.5 total)
Mitchell’s raw talent has given him tantalizing upside throughout his career, but he has had trouble consistently delivering on his potential. He got a fresh start with the trade to the Jets this season as part of the Sauce Gardner deal, and he looks ready to make the most of his expanded role in New York.
Mitchell has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers this week with an 86% Bargain Rating and a favorable matchup against the Miami Dolphins. Mitchell is an affordable play that brings good upside, especially since he has shown a good connection with Tyrod Taylor since the veteran took over the starting job.
In two weeks with Taylor at QB, Mitchell has totaled 19 targets. In Week 12, he only had two catches for 42 yards against the Ravens, but he had eight catches for 102 yards and a touchdown, posting 27.2 DraftKings points in Week 13 against the Falcons.
He’ll look to build on that breakout performance against Miami and should once again get plenty of work. He’s serving as the team’s top deep threat and its de facto No. 1 receiver right now, with Garrett Wilson (knee) and Josh Reynolds (hip) on IR.
Both Mitchell and John Metchie III have shown solid signs of growth in the past few weeks, but Mitchell brings a little higher ceiling, which makes him the better value play in Week 14. If you are looking for a value stack, you can play him and Tyrod this week, but Mitchell has a high enough ceiling at this salary to be a great standalone option as well.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
RJ Harvey ($5,700) Denver Broncos (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (40.5 total)
The Broncos came back from their bye week and took care of the Commanders on Sunday Night Football, and now they’ll head to Vegas for a division matchup against the struggling Raiders. With J.K. Dobbins (foot) done for the rest of the regular season, Harvey has taken over as the team’s top running back, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position this week and the highest for all options under $6,000.
Harvey had 8.0 DraftKings points in his first game after taking over for Dobbins. He totaled just 30 rushing yards on 11 carries and added three catches for 20 more yards. He was much more productive for fantasy in Week 13, since he had two rushing touchdowns to go with his 35 rushing yards on 13 carries and added three more catches for 27 yards to finish with 21.1 DraftKings points.
The rookie has shown a good ceiling and ability to get into the end zone, even if his per-carry numbers have been unimpressive overall. He will likely continue to share playing time with Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie, but since he has gotten double-digit carries in each of his two games without Dobbins, his workload seems relatively secure.
The Raiders have been a favorable matchup for running backs, giving up five running back scores in the last two weeks and 14 on the season. Opposing running backs have averaged 95.2 rushing yards and 28.3 receiving yards per game against the Raiders, and Dobbins had a big game in the Broncos’ Week 10 win against Vegas.
Harvey has the potential to be a great value at this price, especially if the Broncos get out to a lead and play from ahead, as the line seems to indicate.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
AJ Barner ($3,200) Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Atlanta Falcons (44.5 total)
Barner has the highest Plus/Minus projection at tight end this week since Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and Tyler Warren are all priced up. Barner doesn’t have the ceiling that those top options bring, but he does have better value potential since his salary is so low.
Barner has been boom or bust this season with a 10-catch game, a seven-catch game, and four games with just one or zero catches. He has been trending up recently, though, with 16 catches over the last three weeks and 20 targets during that span.
He had four catches for 35 yards last week against the Vikings and also added a two-yard rush. He gets a little production in many weeks from his use in “The Barn Yard,” which is the Seahawks’ version of the tush push. He scored a touchdown on the ground in Week 9, which was one of his six games of double-digit fantasy points in his last 11 games.
Barner and the Seahawks will take on the Falcons, who have been good against tight ends this season. However, his salary is low enough that he’s a great value consideration despite the matchup in Atlanta on Sunday.
Pictured: RJ Harvey
Photo Credit: Imagn
