After 10 games on Sunday afternoon in Week 10, the NFL has 11 games on the main slate for Week 11. As playoff races start to take shape, there’s definitely a huge emphasis this week on divisional contests, with eight divisional matchups, including all four of the contests in the later wave of games. With 22 teams in the player pool, there are plenty of interesting options to consider at every position.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have the highest implied team total on the board as they host the Bengals, followed closely by the Bills against the Bucs, the Vikings against the Bears, and the 49ers against the Cardinals. The highest over/under on the slate is that Steelers-Bengals matchup, followed by the Bucs-Bills showdown in Buffalo, as both contenders look to bounce back from bad losses last week. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 10. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jacoby Brissett ($4,900) Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (48.5 total)
Brissett has taken over the starting QB role in Arizona with a few solid performances and Kyler Murray (foot) landing on IR. He brings good upside at home this week to a favorable matchup against the banged-up 49ers’ defense in this NFC West showdown.
Throughout this post, we’ll rely heavily on an evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty, and Raybon, highlighted above. In those aggregated projections, Brissett has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback.
Brissett has thrown for over 250 yards in each of his four starts for the Cardinals this season, with exactly two touchdowns in each outing. He added a touchdown run as well in the team’s win over the Cowboys in Week 9 for a season-high 24.8 DraftKings points.
Last week against Seattle, he threw for 258 passing yards on 44 pass attempts as the Cardinals tried to rally from behind. It was the second time in his four starts that he has attempted that many throws, showing that Coach Jonathan Gannon has plenty of trust in the veteran to air it out.
The Niners defense is always tough, but they are missing multiple key players and have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season. They were carved up last week by Matthew Stafford, and Brissett will look to post another big week and pick up a key divisional win this week.
Brissett’s salary under $5,000 gives him a great chance to return value, and stacking him with his elite tight end Trey McBride is a solid spot to start your Sunday plans.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Wan’Dale Robinson ($5,500) New York Giants (+7) vs. Green Bay Packers (43.5 total)
Another team turning to a veteran backup this week is the Giants, who will turn to Jameis Winston with rookie Jaxson Dart (concussion) unavailable. The Giants will also be playing for a new coach this week after Brian Daboll was fired on Monday. With a new coach and a new QB, things seem to be setting up well for Wan’Dale Robinson, according to our early projections, which give him the highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers this week.
Robinson has been getting plenty of targets over the last few weeks, and his high volume gives him plenty of potential to break through this Sunday against Green Bay. He has at least 11 targets in three of his last four games and has managed at least six catches in four of his last five. While Dart has been focused on getting him the ball a lot, Robinson hasn’t been able to find a lot of space to operate in a few of those contests.
He had six catches for 62 yards against the Bears after hauling in nine catches for just 46 yards against the 49ers in Week 9. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 6, but he has racked up 53 catches for 602 yards.
Robinson’s consistent involvement has resulted in at least 12 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. He has a pair of games with over 20 DraftKings points as well this season, so he does bring a high ceiling.
Winston’s more aggressive style could open things up for Robinson to post more yardage, but it could also tip the game plan more towards Darius Slayton, who is another solid value to consider. Winston taking over will definitely keep things interesting for the Giants, raising the ceiling and lowering the floor against Green Bay.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Jaylen Warren ($6,100) Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (49.5 total)
At running back, Warren gets a great matchup against the Bengals, and he has been carrying the load for the Steelers lately. He is tied for the most Pro Trends at running back, and he brings the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position as well.
Warren had 14 carries for 70 yards and added two catches for 21 more yards on his way to 11.1 DraftKings points in last week’s loss to the Chargers. Interestingly, Kenneth Gainwell actually played more snaps than Warren in the backfield but didn’t get a single carry and only had two catches for four yards.
Warren has had at least 13 carries in four straight weeks, and he went off for 22.8 DraftKings points by taking 16 carries for 127 yards and adding four catches for 31 receiving yards in his first matchup with the Bengals back in Week 7. He didn’t find the end zone that week and only has three touchdowns on the season, which has kept him off the radar as an elite back despite his consistent work. Aaron Rodgers has been throwing for most of the scores, but the Steelers may lean more on Warren in this rematch since the Bengals have been such a great matchup for running backs.
No team in the NFL has given up more DraftKings points to running backs than the Bengals, who have allowed 13 RB touchdowns in nine games along with an average of 141 rushing yards and 44 receiving yards per contest.
Warren’s salary of just over $6,000 in such a good matchup makes him a top value play to consider as the Steelers look to bounce back after losing three of their last four. They could lean into their “smashmouth” running game and give Warren more work to avenge their Week 7 loss in Cincinnati.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Kyle Pitts Sr. ($4,000) Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (48.5 total)
While Trey McBride has the highest Plus/Minus projections at tight end and should get all the work he can handle with Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendix) out on Sunday, Pitts is a much more affordable value play who also brings lots of upside to his matchup at home against the Panthers.
Pitts has produced 45 catches for 420 yards and one touchdown in his first nine games this season, averaging 5.0 catches on 6.5 targets per game. He has been even more productive at home, hauling in 24 of 26 targets in four games at home.
He only had two catches for 38 yards last week against the Colts but had 20 catches in his previous three games for a total of 159 yards. He’s one of the top targets for Michael Penix Jr., and he should be able to post a good total against Carolina after posting four catches for 39 yards in their first meeting this season. The Panthers won that Week 3 matchup, 30-0, so you know the Falcons will be looking for some payback in Week 11.
On the season, the Panthers have been a top-10 matchup for tight ends, allowing five tight end touchdowns and an average of 70.4 yards per game to the position.
Pictured: Jaylen Warren
Photo Credit: Imagn
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