Week 10 of the NFL season features the return of the International Series with a good game in Berlin on Sunday morning, before a great slate of 10 games kicks off on Sunday afternoon. With 20 teams in the player pool, there are plenty of interesting options to consider at every position. As has been typical the last few weeks, three games make up the late wave of action after seven games get the action started at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The Bills have the highest implied team total on the board as they visit the Dolphins, followed closely by the Lions, who are visiting the Commanders. The highest point total on the board is also from the Bills-Dolphins game, with the Rams-49ers and Lions-Commanders close behind. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 10. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
J.J. McCarthy ($4,900) Minnesota Vikings (+4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (48.5 total)
The Vikings got McCarthy back from his ankle injury last week in their game against the Lions, and he not only posted 19.9 DraftKings points, but he also led his team to an upset victory. He has a favorable matchup against the Ravens in Week 10, and he brings great value potential under $5,000.
Throughout this post, we’ll rely heavily on an evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty, and Raybon, highlighted above. In those aggregated projections, Dart has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback. He has the highest projection of all quarterbacks this week in THE BLITZ projections and is behind only Josh Allen in the aggregate.
McCarthy had a rushing touchdown and two passing touchdowns in last week’s win, which is a very similar stat line to what he posted in Week 1 in another divisional win over the Bears. He struggled in Week 2 against the Falcons and ended up on IR with an ankle injury from that game.
While he hasn’t even thrown for 200 yards in any game in his career, he has done enough on the ground to help compensate for that. He has such elite pass-catchers to work with that he has a high ceiling in every matchup, especially this week at home against Baltimore.
The Ravens have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. Quarterbacks have 14 passing touchdowns and an average of 259.8 passing yards per game against the Ravens this season, while adding two rushing touchdowns as well. Even Tua Tagovailoa threw for over 260 passing yards against Baltimore last week, and they have given up over 260 passing yards in four of their last five contests.
At a bargain salary under $5,000, McCarthy brings good upside since he can produce fantasy points in multiple ways against Baltimore as he continues to progress now that he’s back from his injury.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Zay Flowers ($5,900) Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Minnesota Vikings (48.5 total)
On the other side of the interesting matchup between Baltimore and Minnesota, Flowers has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the aggregate projections. Flowers has been consistent throughout the Ravens’ roller-coaster of a season, but now that he has Lamar Jackson back, he brings a much higher ceiling.
Flowers has at least five catches in five straight games, totaling 29 catches on 37 targets over that span. He hasn’t gone off for a huge game, though, since Week 1, when he lit up the Bills for 143 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens’ wild Sunday Night Football opener.
Last week, Flowers connected with Jackson five times on five targets for 64 yards against the Dolphins in a comfortable win for Baltimore. If this week’s contest is closer, Jackson could lean more heavily on his top wide receiver, who makes tough catches over the middle but is also a legitimate deep threat.
Flowers’ consistent PPR production has helped him average 13.9 DraftKings points per game this season, and he has at least 11 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. His consistency for a receiver under $6,000 is enough to make him a solid value consideration, but when you add in his very high ceiling as well, he becomes the best value on the board.
This matchup isn’t ideal for Flowers, since the Vikings rank in the top 10 hardest matchups for wide receivers this season. However, Amon-Ra St. Brown had nine catches for 97 yards against them last week, and Jameson Williams had four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown.
Flowers will hope to find similar success against Minnesota this week, and the Ravens-Vikings game should be one of the most watchable games on Sunday’s early slate, putting both McCarthy and Flowers in the spotlight as excellent value plays to consider.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Rico Dowdle ($6,300) Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints (39.5 total)
At running back, Dowdle brings outstanding value this week as the surging Panthers head to the Big Easy and take on the stumbling Saints. Dowdley has the highest Plus/Minus projection at running back in the aggregate projections and has proven he has an extremely high ceiling.
Dowdle burst onto the fantasy scene while filling in for the injured Chuba Hubbard (calf). He had a memorable performance of 206 rushing yards and 35.4 DraftKings points against the Dolphins in his first start, and he followed that up with 183 rushing yards and 36.9 DraftKings points the next week against his former team, the Cowboys.
Hubbard returned and shared time with Dowdle for games against the Jets and Bills, and in those games, Dowdle only managed 10.6 and 5.4 DraftKings points. However, last week, coach Dave Canales announced that Dowdle would be the team’s primary running back going forward, and Dowdle responded with a big game against the Packers, racking up 130 rushing yards with two touchdowns and 31.1 DraftKings points.
Three games in five weeks with over 30 DraftKings points is impressive at any price point, but at barely over $6,000 Dowedle brings elite value now that he is in command of the backfield timeshare for the Panthers. He played 42 of 58 offensive snaps last week against the Packers, and he has an extremely high ceiling if he has a similar workload this week.
The Saints rank in the top 10 easiest matchups for running backs this season, allowing nine running back touchdowns in nine games with an average of 109.8 rushing yards and 24.8 receiving yards for running backs against them. Kyren Williams had a strong showing against them in Week 9 with 100+ rushing yards and a touchdown, and Dowdle brings a similar ceiling on Sunday.
If the Panthers get out in front and play from ahead, Dowdle will get plenty of work and should be an elite value option to build around in Week 10.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Theo Johnson ($3,800) New York Giants (+3.5) at Chicago Bears (48 total)
Johnson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends in Sean Koerner’s projections for this week and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregated projections.
With Jaxson Dart at quarterback, Johnson has been a steady part of the passing attack for New York. He has five touchdowns in the last six weeks, with multiple catches in each of those contests. He doesn’t normally rack up a ton of yards, but his touchdowns have helped him produce at least 10 DraftKings points in four of his last six weeks.
He had a pair of touchdowns against the Saints for 21.3 DraftKings points in his best performance of the season, and he has a high ceiling as Dart and the Giants try to keep up with the Bears in Chicago this week.
The Bears have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in three of their last four games and over 50 yards to the position in each of the last three weeks. Johnson is in a nice value spot this week, so include him in your player pool headed into the weekend.
Pictured: Zay Flowers
Photo Credit: Imagn
