Projecting line play — or for our sake — the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. From Week 5 on, I will be basing these selections almost entirely on Football Outsiders data, including pressure rate and adjusted line yards.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including The Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vise-versa for quarterbacks.
Starting in Week 5, these numbers became matchup adjusted, which should make them far more efficient. Each week, they become slightly more predictive. However, they don’t take injuries into account, so keeping up on those are important. Also keep in mind that adjusted sack rate takes into account sacks, not pressures.
Therefore quarterback play heavily influences the offensive side of the statistic.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Lav Vegas Raiders OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #7 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Houston Texans DL
Josh Jacobs ($6,500) is projected as the best Pts/Sal option at running back in our NFL Player Models, and the line matchup fully supports it. The Raiders are the No. 1 team in the NFL in adjusted line yards and are taking on the 23rd-ranked Texans front.
Houston has been gashed on the ground this year, ranking 29th in rushing defense by DVOA. Additionally, their +4.7 Opponent plus-minus allowed to running backs is the highest on the slate.
We could go on with various statistics here, but the takeaway remains the same. Jacobs is an excellent play. He’s been a workhorse the past two weeks, with 49 total carries. With the Raiders as solid favorites, he should be in line for another 20+, with increased efficiency to boot.
Cleveland Browns OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #4 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Baltimore Ravens DL
The Browns’ situation is similar to the Raiders, with a strong offensive line meeting a poor defensive unit. Both teams feature old-school “yardage and touchdown” type backs who aren’t exceptionally involved in the pass game. For the Browns, that’s Nick Chubb ($8,000).
The situation is tougher for Chubb, though, with his Browns as roughly a touchdown underdog to the Ravens. He does better in a positive game script. Still, he has a three-touchdown 30-point performance in a loss this season, as well as an additional 28-point outing.
Chubb is worth some GPP exposure, especially if building around scenarios in which the Browns keep this thing close or win the game. Another takeaway is that both offenses are in good spots here — taking over on the 45.5-game total could be a sharp bet.
Dallas Cowboys OL (#3 in Combined Line Yards, #4 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Detroit Lions DL
Not much more needs to be said about the Lions’ defensive front, who’ve been absolutely dreadful this season. They rank 25th in adjusted line yards and 28th in adjusted sack rate on the season. Not a bad matchup for Dak Prescott ($6,700) to be faced with in his presumed return.
The bigger focus will be on Ezekiel Elliott ($6,000), though. The Lions rank ahead of only the Texans in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to running backs. Elliot’s role isn’t what it once was, but he has 41 combined carries in the two games in which the Cowboys won by more than a touchdown.
He’s an interesting tournament option this week.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Tampa Bay Bucs DL (#1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers OL
Despite all of their problems on offense, the Bucs still have a dominant defensive front. They rank second overall in adjusted sack rate and third in sacks on the year. Against a Panthers team in turmoil, they’re in an excellent spot in Week 7.
Tampa Bay ($3,900) is also one of the most expensive defenses on the slate. That and their -10.5 spread should be the first clue they’re in a great spot. They could be a “pay up to be contrarian” defensive option, though and are worth mixing in if multi-entering.
Green Bay Packers DL (#2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Washington Commanders OL
Green Bay ($3,400) is effectively an arbitrage Bucs this week. They’re solid (5.5-point) favorites against a team missing their starting quarterback. Their price point (and similar projection) probably translates to higher ownership than the Bucs, though.
Still, if you need the extra $500, they are a worthwhile pivot. They’re the seventh-ranked defense in adjusted sack rate, taking on the Commanders’ 30th-ranked offensive line. They took on a Taylor Heinicke ($5,000) led Commanders team last season and scored 14 points with four sacks and two turnovers.
New York Jets DL (#3 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Denver Broncos OL
The New York Jets ($2,600) stand out as the best cheap defensive unit on the Week 7 slate and are an excellent cash game choice. The Broncos offense has struggled heavily, with Russel Wilson ($6,200) hampered by some combination of injury and declining ability.
Sauce Gardner is emerging as a superstar in the secondary, and the defensive front has been productive as well. Denver will likely try a run-heavy gameplan, but the Jets rank top-ten in adjusted line yards. New York’s offense may not produce the game script needed for a massive defensive score, but they’re still a very strong choice.
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