Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
This week marks the debut of the data table I use to project line play. However, it should be taken with a massive grain of salt. Since we have just one week of performances from each team, it’s impossible to determine if, for example, the Packers low adjusted sack rate is because their offensive line is good, the Lions defensive line is bad, or some combination of the two.
For that reason, most of the analysis will still be based on Anderson’s offensive line rankings and PFF’s defensive line rankings until Week 5, when the adjusted line yards data has enough sample size to adjust for matchups.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Philadelphia Eagles OL (#1 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Kansas City Chiefs DL (#15 PFF)
The Eagles faced a reasonably tough Week 1 line matchup against the Cowboys but are in a better on-paper spot this week. PFF ranked Dallas three spots ahead of the Chiefs’ #15 position, though their rankings came out when Micah Parsons was still a Cowboy.
On the other hand, exchanging Parsons for Kenny Clark was probably an upgrade to the Dallas run defense, even if it was a huge downgrade to the pass rush. We saw that last week, when Saquon Barkley ($8,000) was held to just 3.3 yards per carry, but Jalen Hurts ($6,800) completed over 80% of his passes while taking just one sack.
This matchup probably tilts things back towards Barkley, even if the tight game script implies more passing from the Eagles offense. Saquon could be a somewhat contrarian way to get exposure to this game. He saw 22 touches in Week 1 but was relatively inefficient, so some improvement in that department would be a big boost.
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Denver Broncos OL (#2 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Indianapolis Colts DL (#17 in PFF’s Rankings)
The Colts gave up just eight points to the Dolphins in Week 1, picking up three sacks and three turnovers along the way. However, that seemed to be far more about a dysfunctional Miami offense than anything the Colts did, especially considering Miami’s #28 preseason offensive line ranking.
The Broncos have been elevated to the #2 spot in Anderson’s rankings this season after returning all five starters to the unit that ranked #1 in pass blocking grade by PFF. Continuity is important to offensive lines, so that’s an especially good sign for this talented unit.
The Colts are a slight step down from their Week 1 matchup with the Titans (who rank 14th in PFF’s D-line rankings) and Denver found success against Tennessee. Bo Nix ($6,100) took just one sack on 41 dropbacks, while the Broncos averaged five yards per carry.
The split backfield between JK Dobbins ($5,600) and RJ Harvey ($5,300) makes it hard to trust either player, though the rookie Harvey picked up more yards on less than half the carries last week. He should step into a larger role as the season goes on, so it’s worth getting some exposure before the breakout comes.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Pittsburgh Steelers DL (#1 In PFF Rankings) vs. Seattle Seahawks OL (#31 in Anderson’s Rankings)
Pittsburgh ($3,100) feels like a borderline must-play this week, with a reasonable price tag despite one of the best possible defensive line matchups on the slate. Seattle only allowed one sack in Week 1 to the 49ers, but San Francisco was rated below average by PFF coming into the season — and Seattle still scored just 13 points.
The Steelers have an extremely high floor with Seattle implied for just 18.5 points (third lowest on the slate) and a massive ceiling if the pass rush can get to Sam Darnold to pick up sacks and/or turnovers. They’re far too cheap for their likely outcome here.
New York Giants DL (#3 In PFF Rankings) vs. Dallas Cowboys OL (#20 in Anderson’s Rankings)
Speaking of cheap, I expect the Giants Defense ($2,600) to be a solid budget play for much of the season. That’s because they have an elite pass rush but a bad overall team, which means they’ll be underdogs in most matchups, and defense pricing heavily relies on the spread.
They picked up three sacks against hyper-mobile QB Jayden Daniels in Week 1, despite playing from behind the entire game. Dak Prescott ($5,900) should be much easier to corral, and there’s a chance this game stays closer.
While the rest of the Giants defense is bad enough that points will be scored against them, they should do well enough relative to their price tag to be an excellent cash game budget option.
Picture: Cameron Hayward
Photo Credit: Imagn
