Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Starting next week, we’ll have a table including the combined adjusted line yards and pressure rates for every matchup on the main slate. This will give an at-a-glance look at the strength of the matchup for both the rushing and passing offenses in every game.
However, that’s not a viable option in Week 1. Between personnel additions and subtractions, players progressing and regressing, and coaching changes, using last year’s data isn’t especially relevant. Therefore, in Week 1, we’ll stick to qualitative measures for the analysis.
Keep in mind that the aforementioned data still doesn’t account for matchups until Week 5. Until then, we’ll continue to use preseason evaluations as well as hard data — with the latter being potentially influenced by a very good (or bad) matchup early on.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Tampa Bay Buccaneers OL (#5 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL (#30 PFF)
With Baker Mayfield ($6,600) being one of the more pressure-sensitive QBs in the NFL last season, the improvements on the Bucs offensive line could make him a much more reliable fantasy asset. Mayfield ranked in the bottom half of starters in terms of sacks taken and in the top 10 in terms of interceptions in 2024 — when Anderson had their offensive line ranked #15.
This year, they’ve slid up ten spots to number five, though they’ll be without star tackle Tristan Wirfs at the beginning of the season. That’s less of a concern against the Falcons unit, which PFF grades as one of the worst in the NFL.
The Falcons have especially struggled rushing the passer, so I see the benefit falling more to Mayfield and the passing game than Bucky Irving ($7,100), though Irving could certainly get a boost in this spot, especially with the game script on his side.
It’s also worth noting that the Falcons offensive line also has a huge edge over the Bucs defensive unit (#9 vs. #27), which makes this game an exciting potential stack for DFS purposes and a solid over pick on the betting front.
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Detroit Lions OL (#8 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Green Bay Packers DL (#24 in PFF’s Rankings)
While the Lions offensive line is due for a step back this season after losing center Frank Ragnow, they still have a chance to look like a solid unit in Week 1.
Crucially, these rankings were produced before the Packers traded for pass-rushing linebacker Micah Parsons, when the Packers pass rush seemed considerably weaker. However, Parsons is dealing with a minor injury and is questionable for Week 1 — plus one player does not a unit make.
Parsons also consistently grades out as an average run defender, which is where the Lions unit should continue to shine. That’s good news for Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700) and David Montgomery ($5,700) more than anyone else.
Picking between the two (at cost) is always a bit of a challenge, with a loose correlation between the game script and their workload. Montgomery tends to perform somewhat better in positive game scripts (the Lions leading), while the inverse is true for Gibbs.
You can use that to your advantage and correlate lineups around either scenario, for example, pairing the Lions Defense ($2,700) with Montgomery or Gibbs with other offensive pieces.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Los Angeles Rams DL (#9 In PFF Rankings) vs. Houston Texans OL (#32 in Anderson’s Rankings)
Not only does Anderson have the Texans offensive line ranked dead last in the league, but he also has them in a tier of their own. They took an already bad 2024 unit and lost arguably their two best players and have been shuffling pieces around in the preseason trying to find a unit that works.
Continuity is a huge piece to a successful offensive line, so that’s already a bad sign. It’s an even worse sign that they have to face a top-ten unit in Week 1 in the Rams Defense ($3,400).
The Rams unit is a bit expensive considering they’re just three-point favorites, but if Houston’s front is as bad as anticipated, they could look like a steal. They’re probably my favorite GPP play for Week 1, considering the loose pricing makes spending up on team defense easier.
The Rams offensive line could also be at a disadvantage here, ranking 18th and forced to protect an immobile QB with a back injury against PFF’s #4 defensive front. While it’s hard to “bet against points” for DFS, this game could be an under candidate if you’re interested in betting totals.
New York Giants DL (#3 In PFF Rankings) vs. Washington Commanders OL (#17 in Anderson’s Rankings)
The defensive line is one of the few strengths of this Giants squad and makes the Giants defense ($2,300) an acceptable punt option for cash games in Week 1.
It’s not the best matchup, as Washington is favored by six and has a very strong offense overall. However, at the price point with the Giants, we could live with a few sacks even if they gave up a bit more points than we’d hoped.
More importantly, I want some exposure to the Giants D/ST now in case their pass rush is as good as advertised. We might not see this price tag (or low ownership) much more this season if they have a strong Week 1, and it’s a relatively low-risk bet to make on some chunk of your lineups.
Picture: Baker Mayfield
Photo Credit: Imagn
